TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[hobbes]

Looked through Vickies tweets and also found this:

You’re absolutely right I just grabbed a picture of a big wave because I’m excited that we’re actually going to have a competition next week, but here’s another picture of a big wave and this one is Mavericks.

This sounds like a competition between the different stations of production, as she described before. My speculation - find out who can do the equivalent of 10,000/week?!

VICKI SALVADOR on Twitter

 

[Words of HABIT]

Jay Leno gets Tesla.
Excellent article on Clean Technica here:
Jay Leno Wonders Why More People Don't Celebrate Tesla | CleanTechnica

Cut to Jay Leno's video here:

Flashback to 2012 with Jay Leno interviewing Franz with the MS. Shows just how perceptive Jay Leno has been.

Tesla will have another great week.

 

[RobStark]

Except NASA uses the metric system

So does the US Military.

That was not what was claimed.

 

[UncaNed]

Just because we're behaving like morons now doesn't mean we have to be morons forever and ever. But then again historic behaviour is usually a good guideline for future behaviour.

With our current way of living 7 billions is too much for the earth. We have to change our behaviour or billions of humans will be ****ed.

Just because we COULD increase our population doesn't mean we SHOULD. Turning this beautiful blue planet into a stinking sphere of poo by adding more people is the most hateful act against nature imaginable. Let's prove our good stewardship/behavior by letting attrition ease our population down to half a billion for a millennia or two before we consider adding more.

In fact, if we're gonna colonize anywhere, first let's introduce the best of nature - giant sequoias, whales, the most wonderful exotic plant and ocean life- and give nature a head start on a few hundred people-less planets first.
Moderator said STOP. All future such posts and responses will be summarily deleted.

 

[gringotuanis]

Can you be more specific on the sourcing of this?

EDIT: Nevermind, continued reading and saw it was Vicki. One quick caveat to her numbers: they may apply to the paint shop only. The process could still easily be constrained by cell / pack construction or other points in the assembly process.

He was, keep reading.

 

[Fact Checking]

higher numbers have generally happened due to unsustainable burst production especially at the end of the quarter.

That's wrong: all the previous "peak" Model 3 production numbers Tesla hit in previous quarters were sustained a couple of months later.

~800/week, ~2000/week, ~5000/week were all "stress tested" a few months before they were sustained, and consistently so.

Also, every single time Tesla disclosed a new "peak" production number shorts were eager to downplay the numbers, calling them 'unsustainable' and were pretending that new peaks are somehow not real and not significant. They couldn't be more wrong.

There's a big difference between "not sustained right then" (because the supply chain not having ramped up yet) and "unsustainable". Tesla has yet to hit peak production rates they weren't able to sustain a few months down the road... So the peak figures are important and reliable predictors of future sustained rates - which is why we are following any leaks of peak production rates.

Note that it has additional relevance if Tesla is able to hit 5,000/week for Q4: 5k/week for a whole quarter was mentioned by Moody's as a major condition before a Moody's upgrade of Tesla.

I think Tesla is trying to hit 65k in Q4, which is 5k/week sustained. If so then a Moody's upgrade of Tesla's corporate debt/bonds might be imminent in January (after the delivery report) or February (after the Q4 financial report).

By hitting 7k/week rates they are also demonstrating that they have successfully deployed all the capex required for that rate of production and that there are no unexpected bottlenecks (like the major one they found in the summer of 2017) - an important financial and production milestone in itself.

 

[wipster]

<snip>
Owning a car would be problematic but that's solved by autonomy. Tesla is working on the energy needed too. What's really missing is the totally tasty but still eco-friendly Tesla-cow.

Interesting you should mention that. While not Tesla, there is an interesting vid on the WSJ today showing creation and tasting of chicken nuggets and steak created from their respective stem cells... and the verdict is they taste pretty damn good, very close to the original. Well worth watching IMHO.

 

[RobStark]

moderator deleted

 

[gringotuanis]

I am not talking about any random stock. Tesla is like no other opportunity I have seen in my 50 years of investing. And yes, in this case I do ,know that I know more than the market consensus. I know that you and many people here do, also. News???? What news? Do you believe any news from MSM? I believe in what I read here. When one has more knowledge than the market consensus and has the benefit of owning and experiencing a truly disruptive product, I say yes, put as much money as you can afford to lose in the stock and hold on (obviously, unless the story changes). I'll repeat what I've said before here: options are a losing game and so is short-term trading of stock. Unfortunately, most people have to learn for themselves, the hard way. GLTA

Options are definitely not a losing game if done properly. They are much higher risk, but they can be extremely profitable. Way beyond normal returns.

 

[Hogfighter]

Looked through Vickies tweets and also found this:



This sounds like a competition between the different stations of production, as she described before. My speculation - find out who can do the equivalent of 10,000/week?!

VICKI SALVADOR on Twitter

It’s a surf competition. Massive waves

Massive waves push possible start to Mavericks surf contest

 

[SebastianR]

Tesla isn't going to have 100% market share in North America.

Much less so in Europe. By hook or by crook. As we have seen the EU/Germany essentially confiscating the Supercharger Network in the name of "non-discriminatory access."

There is still opportunity for non-Tesla EV makers.

Even if that means VW is #2 in Europe in the future.

You misunderstand. Of course there is much room for other players. I never tried to imply there is none.

HOWEVER, my point is this: VW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche & Co. are happy to tell you (well at least the folks working there and discussing with me are happy to tell me) that Tesla is a fad that will quickly go away once they decide to deliver electric cars. Moreover they happily tell me that Tesla will never capture more than 1% of the market.

I see if differently: I don't think that Tesla will be alone in the market. But electric car makers will need to make their way into a market that is currently dominated by Tesla (case in the US), where Tesla is a very strong player (rest of the world). And while this is entirely feasible, I don't think it will be easy (see the offerings from pretty much any competitor outside China).

Besides - and that's the other part of the argument - Kia and Hyundai, heck even Nissan and Renault seem to have their cars finished and ready to go.

If you combine all of the above, I believe that legacy car makers can quickly get into a world of pain: the car fleets in the different countries are not old enough to force folks to continuously buy many new cars. And we have seen that it does not take much to send over-leveraged legacy car makers into bankruptcy...

 

[sparcs]

That's wrong: all the previous "peak" Model 3 production numbers Tesla hit in previous quarters were sustained a couple of months later.

800/week, 2000/week, ~5000/week were all "stress tested" a few months before they were sustained, and consistently so. Also, every single time Tesla disclosed a new "peak" production number shorts were eager to downplay the numbers, calling them unsustainable and were pretending that new peaks are somehow not real and not significant.

There's a big difference between "not sustained" (because the supply chain not having ramped up yet) and "unsustainable". Tesla has yet to hit production rates they weren't able to sustain a few months down the road...

Note that it has additional relevance if Tesla is able to hit 5,000/week for Q4: 5k/week for a whole quarter was mentioned by Moody's as a major condition before a Moody's upgrade of Tesla.

I think Tesla is trying to hit 65k in Q4, which is 5k/week sustained.

The last few quarters they do burst production at the end and then drop off massively at the beginning of the next quarter. Then slowly ramp back up a little, but not quite to the peak number.

I don't think that's true that they have consistently hit 5k per week model 3s this whole quarter. They might average out that way when you average 4300 weeks with 7000 weeks, but that's hardly consistent.

If you are right, then we would easily hit 70k Model 3s produced this quarter when you add in burst production. I would be thrilled if that's the case.

 

[RobStark]

The article is listing myriads of potential reasons for the Prius's decline - but somehow fails to mention the #1 car company that is making cars which are even more green than a Prius, and without the compromises of a Prius!

The dreaded T-word is not mentioned in any of the 200+ user comments either. Has anyone tried to reply using the word "Tesla" or "battery" - are they actively filtered perhaps?

Also, California is the #1 market for the Prius.

What is Tesla's #1 market?

 

[hobbes]

Vicki is a reliable source and I assume her comment has been authorized. Elon is following her on Twitter.

I just checked to make sure - it is Elon Musk: The Unauthorized Autobiography (@ElonMuskTUA) | Twitter following her, not the real Elon. So we don´t know if Elon know about the leak but still likely.

 

[RobStark]

You misunderstand. Of course there is much room for other players. I never tried to imply there is none.

And my point is the Germans don't have to be perfect.

They don't even have to be as good as Tesla.

They just have to beat most of the legacy incumbents and the EV startups.

I don't see that as being incredibly difficult. Tesla being first, having the backing of all the hardcore EV enthusiast, having Supercharger network et al has not had an easy time. New startups have to convince customers to pick their car over a proven Tesla vehicle. Something startup Tesla did not have to do.

IF VW Group is better than GM and Toyota they are in a decent spot.

 

[HG Wells]

Indeed they certainly did when I was in the US Army during the late sixties. It was to be uniform with NATO allies. I still find it easier to determine how many kilometers (which we called clicks) rather than miles I've walked, or how many meters away is an object.

The metric system is immensely easier than the imperial system. Everything is associated by magnitudes of 10. It's actually been official in this country since the mid-19th century, and Congress attempted to actively promote it during the 1970's, at least for students. But that push was allowed to fade. Nevertheless it's been making inroads, and eventually I expect it to be dominant here. Those of us more knowledgeable about metric advantages can help to speed that process.

BUT BUT its so much better for students to practice their math using the imperial system.
Start out with acceleration given as 2 inches per second and an initial velocity of 0.25 yards per minute. Find velocity in MPH at 30 minutes.

That's why my 8th grade math teacher didn't like giving problems with metric units.
PS no calculators then and slide rulers were not allowed on tests.

 

[SimplyThis]

Except NASA uses the metric system

Funny, I use SI-prefixes for people.
Me myselsf is a decalong, I guess most here are hectolongs or even kilolongs.
Megalongs don't show up here, get the picture?

Apart from that, $20mm is exactly right.
That's what you in the US pay for a modell S P100D!

 

[Rarity]

Vicki is a reliable source and I assume her comment has been authorized. Elon is following her on Twitter.

I do not see where he is following her.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Can you be more specific on the sourcing of this?

EDIT: Nevermind, continued reading and saw it was Vicki. One quick caveat to her numbers: they may apply to the paint shop only. The process could still easily be constrained by cell / pack construction or other points in the assembly process.

I find it hard to believe that this would apply to paint shop only. What's the use of painting thousands of extra bodies? They don't have space at the factory to store a lot of painted but otherwise unfinished bodies.

 

[X Fan]

My son picked up his LR 3 on Friday....he was told there are no longer any LR’s of any color available in N.C. or VA. Sales are strong!

BTW: this 120k VIN car was flawless......