TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tsunamiofhurt]

Fully agreed. I really would like to see Elon focusing on quality/reliability and end to end customer delivery experiences soon after production capacity is at consistent ~7k/week.

Costs from damaged brand reputation from initial quality issues and costs to fix issues post delivery can seriously hurt future sales and profitability.

I hope they are ramping service center capacity in time to provide satisfactory services to the exponentially increasing number of tesla owners...

Definitely. Production with high quality at a consistent 5-7k/week is WAY more important than ramping from to 10k.

Robert Scoble (prominent SV figure, Elon gave him a ride in the first Tesla) frequently posts positive things re his early Model 3. Now he has a new post talking about all of the reliability issues and the cost of being an "early adopter". It's an early Model 3, but it still hurts.

 

[gringotuanis]

Nasdaq closes down 2.21% (below 6,200) and Tesla 295.39 (down 7.62%).

The best market ever, I tell you ! Great job, Mr Trump.

Trump's doing all he can to combat this drop. Including threatening to fire Powell. (Which would be great, or just dissolve the Fed).

 

[eloder]

Just a data point on the service issue, I was able to get my week old Model 3 in same day for an issue where I could still drove (but with no display). They had diagnosed the issue by the next morning and provided a date in when the needed repair part would come in (2 business days). My local service center is also expanding and moving to a much larger facility in January, according to an employee on my test drive.

I imagine they will ramp up service capabilities as they move the focus to international deliveries, but at least in my local area it isn't bad at all.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Just a data point on the service issue, I was able to get my week old Model 3 in same day for an issue where I could still drove (but with no display). They had diagnosed the issue by the next morning and provided a date in when the needed repair part would come in (2 business days). My local service center is also expanding and moving to a much larger facility in January, according to an employee on my test drive.

I imagine they will ramp up service capabilities as they move the focus to international deliveries, but at least in my local area it isn't bad at all.

Thanks for the data point. Any idea what the issue/needed repair part was?

 

[Ocelot]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

 

[Pascal Hureau]

The more Trump is trying to kill the EV industry, the more I am feeling responsible to support it, and first of all Tesla. I decided to buy another action today, as a very humble Christmas gift, and also as my very first post on this forum, I wish you a merry Christmas to all of you !

 

[kyzhk]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

That is to be expected. What has really changed fundamentally since Q3 earning report release? It's a good buying opportunity for the same reason that it was a good buying opportunity right before Q3.

Price cut seems to be in response to tariffs.

 

[Mike117]

Mike, you did not get in. You are and always will be a shorter and you only show up here when SP goes down (and after a ban has ended). Go away.

Other than you I actually own 151 shares, my friend.

 

[Krugerrand]

That is then and this is now and I keep an open mind, probably too open at times.

What? They are building it ‘now’. We just saw a new drone video last week of the site. It’s completely leveled now, it’s got new fencing up and there’s some new sheds up and people were there working. We also got a news report last week from China stating it’s a go and will be ready for production for 2H2019.

You’re mind isn’t open, it’s tricked. Don’t fall for the FUD just because the ticker is red. That’s got nothing to do with demand.

 

[Rarity]

Seems like the deliveries described in the delivery threads are a lot smoother this end of quarter versus last. Still issues, but much less chaotic.

 

[SteveG3]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

There might be a small window for the next quarter or two where Tesla feels some doubts re demand being large enough without the SR version being available. Once it's available, I don't think 500K in annual global demand will be an issue, much less the 350K run rate they are probably roughly at now.

The "lemur" was likely something of an attempt to address this... but, I think it's pricing was only enticing for US buyers who could get an extra $3750 of the tax credit by taking the lemur before the end of 2018 vs. waiting for the SR.

None of this impacts my long range valuation of Tesla, and I'm long term buy and hold, just opportunistically adding trading shares at selloffs like this.

 

[KarenRei]

Missed my chance to initiate a transfer from personal funds to my IB account today. Will probably have to wait until the 26th to do it, then who knows how long of a wait. Who knows how long low prices will hold...

Looking to get some $300s to pair with my $330s and $360s for Q4.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

OK, I was going to stay away until the January update, but given your comment I thought I'd do a drive-by.

I think that what's happening today is (to paraphrase the Oracle) the tide is turning and the market is wondering whether Elon has been skimping on swimwear.

Or to put it more formally, a pull-back like this often causes financial institutions to reduce their exposure to highly leveraged/low rated credit and there is a worry that this will reduce the depth of the CDS market for Tesla and for similar credits. Has Tesla made a plan for this eventuality?

 

[HG Wells]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

The price drop was to get rid of the price increase that was done because of the tariffs.
Now that the tariffs are reduced we are (basically) back where the price was 6 months ago.

 

[Krugerrand]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

Relax. The MY is on its way to China. With a Gigafactory there, Tesla could simultaneously have the MY available in NA and China. When GigaEuropa is built - ditto. No more waiting additional time outside of the US.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

You’re right that they’re cutting profit, just not theirs. They’re cutting profits of the Chinese govt, since they’re no longer taking (as large of) a cut.

 

[Krugerrand]

OK, I was going to stay away until the January update, but given your comment I thought I'd do a drive-by.

I think that what's happening today is (to paraphrase the Oracle) the tide is turning and the market is wondering whether Elon has been skimping on swimwear.

Or to put it more formally, a pull-back like this often causes financial institutions to reduce their exposure to highly leveraged/low rated credit and there is a worry that this will reduce the depth of the CDS market for Tesla and for similar credits. Has Tesla made a plan for this eventuality?

Tesla has a plan for everything. Non issue.

 

[KarenRei]

Missed my chance to initiate a transfer from personal funds to my IB account today. Will probably have to wait until the 26th to do it, then who knows how long of a wait. Who knows how long low prices will hold...

Looking to get some $300s to pair with my $330s and $360s for Q4.

This post was rated 'disagree'? You disagree that this is what I did and plan to do? *boggle*

 

[sundaymorning]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

Chinese tariffs were raised to 40% during the trade war, Tesla had to increase its pricing to reflect the tariffs. Then with recent developments after Trumo met with Xi, tariffs were reduced to 15%, hence Tesla reduced the price of the cars to reflect the new pricing.

It isn’t a demand issue, it’s Tesla being fair to its customers. Shorts have been recycling the “demand” question since 2012. Demand is strong, hence Tesla has been on an expansion spree.

 

[JollyRoger]

A good reason to cut costs In China.....

Tesla production costs have dropped quite significantly? Pass the savings on to customers, drive the company forward!

Ol Musky, is nothing but fair to the consumer, of tariffs drop the price of purchase also reduces.

I can not fathom what all the shirt selling is about,

Kicking myself for the 365 buy but will hold in and strengthen my position in January,

For darkness to flourish good people have to sit back and do nothing, tesla will change the world for the better....