TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Just wait until Fred hears about this
View attachment 365070

That report would be news worthy as it is not the proper (or legal) thing to do. Hopefully, the tweet was deleted due to Tesla clarifying with the poster that Tesla would cover the $3,750 shortfall, not that they were altering the paperwork.

 

[hacer]

No, not safe. As per my prior post, I was just in our local gallery and they've still got the showroom cars, plus dozens in the lot (many of which I'm sure will be delivered today). Our gallery is not on that list, but does plan to be open until midnight. I'm not sure how they decided which locations to list.

It's still possible that all of these are sold and they are keeping late hours so that when customer's don't show up for delivery they can't claim Tesla owes them for missing the tax credit - it will clearly be the customer's fault, not Tesla's because they made every effort to deliver the car until the last second.

I would expect all locations with sold but undelivered inventory to remain open until they are all delivered or midnight rolls around. At the same time those locations shouldn't be advertised as open late because you don't want to drive customers there that can't get a car there.

 

[Open Interest]

Guys, just calm down. The numbers wi

Shocked that Electrek has this much influence over our stock price. I feel Fred's entire sentiment this year has been negative towards Tesla. Pavduh Electrek!

Is it possible that some of what is driving today’s decline is profit taking from the recent ~$299 - $335 move?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Is it possible that some of what is driving today’s decline is profit taking from the recent ~$299 - $335 move?

Not aiming at you, specifically, but, guys, we need to calm down. The SP is down 0.78% as I type this. On 5.8 million in volume. This is noise.

 

[Pezpunk]

flirting with green......................

 

[wipster]

Nice push at the closing! Methinks it bodes well for 2019!

 

[homer214]

Especially compared to traditional car makers with showrooms all over the country filled with unsellable ICE junk

Exactly. I’d love to see a chart of numbers of unsold ICE vehicles at the other manufacturers. No doubt Tesla has the lowest actual number and percentage of unsold vehicles.

 

[Zaxxon]

Nice push at the closing! Methinks it bodes well for 2019!

Can we get a few days of drop to start out the year? Some of us have IRA contributions to make, dontyaknow.

 

[wipster]

Can we get a few days of drop to start out the year? Some of us have IRA contributions to make, dontyaknow.

I'm afraid I can't do that Zax...

 

[KarenRei]

Can we get a few days of drop to start out the year? Some of us have IRA contributions to make, dontyaknow.

I'd take it. I have some "personal" (aka, don't want to invest it unless there's a screaming deal) money that just posted in my account, and like you would love a chance to take advantage of it. But I really doubt we'll be seeing a fire sale like we had in the runup to Christmas.

 

[ZachF]

Well, after a tumultuous 2018, Tesla ended up 6.7%, versus -4.4% for the NASDAQ, a 11% beat.

EDIT: fixed numbers for 12/29 closing vs. 1/2 closing.

 

[Tslynk67]

Ugh, have been busy cooking most of the day - always make the wife a new recipe on NYEve and today's she's got a provencal beef stew with pureed cauliflower on the side - and jolly tasty it all was too!

So, for Q4 deliveries, I'll take my guess. I'm not arsing-about with the minor digits and I'm thinking BIG:
- Model S & X: 33000
- Model 3: 67000

What the hell, I'm a goddam atheist, gotta believe in something!

Well, 2018 was quite a scream, eh?

Wishing you all a great, healthy and profitable 2019, see you in the new thread(s)! I'll be changing my avatar - seems cats are the way to go...*

* Brought to you by the letter "W"

Eternal Ruin? We’re at 336.42 premarket.

I was actually referring to emergency room... At the very least for Spiegel's prolapse...

Thanks for the video and information. We did not get many insights about the status as of now which has been worrisome for many. Thats really helpful.

End of Q3 many have said that Tesla will miss numbers because the delivery process does not work, volunteers need to help out and the IT system is not able to do the job. Not to mention burst production rate is not sustainable and real production is way lower. At that stage this has led many people to believe in low deliveries despite okay production.

We all learned later that despite delivery issues and challenges they have been able to overachieve expectations on all areas.

Now end of Q4 we hear a lot about its too calm at the delivery centers and that they just not have enough demand for the 3. Not having volunteers helping is all of a sudden a negative sign and its less drama at the centers which people interpret as a negative too.

To all in doubt, no drama is a good thing!

If all works as planed you have a better productivity and its feels like calm but the throughput is higher. Not having leasing and not calling supporters to help is a clear signal that demand is healthy and according to plan and a sign that the process to deliver works according to plan. If it works according to plan we should assume that the achieve what they have been targeting for and that is delivering and producing in Q4 more than in Q3.

Get used to a no drama Tesla. Its the new Tesla.

With a more balanced board a chairwomen that does not put herself in the front row and Elon more controlled on Twitter as well and an reduced stress level simply because Tesla survived a phase in 2018 where a production clash considering the outflow of money could have had a consequence of raising money requirements which would have confirmed shorts, made investors nervous and the SP tank. That could have initiated a negative spiral making consumers nervous. All of those is gone, Tesla is in calm water now focussing on execution and avoiding drama.

You can find this confirmed in the lowest rate of negative reporting so far measured: Tesla Ending 2018 With The Most Positive News Week Thus Far — #Pravduh About #Tesla Report 17 | CleanTechnica.

This is not because all is rosy all of a sudden but because there is less incidents that is sensational enough to report on and reiterate the FUD from the past days again and again. The media does not like to report not sensational stories because they are kind of boring and the click rate is therefore low.

Let all hope Tesla is the new boring in 2019. Bad for the media and good for us investors. It will be still exciting enough though.

Hey, I'm only in it for the roller-coaster ride, laughs and minor heart-attacks, count me out if it starts to get dull!

Tesla has over 3,000 Model 3 vehicles left in inventory in the US

"According to a source familiar with the matter, Tesla had over 3,300 Model 3 vehicles in inventory in the US on Sunday."

Come on folks, it's obvious that Tesla deliberately over-produced inventory to allow for last-minute sales up to midnight. They've made an inventory as a service to customers. Can't imagine any other manufacturer being so client-focussed. Love it!

EDIT: also wonder how many cars that were due to be delivered this year, but were, that subsequently got released to inventory, but if not sold will surely be re-assigned to the original recipient?

Tesla ~250 Service Centers. Tesla will sell ~250k units this year and ~400k next year.

Ford ~7500 Dealerships. Ford sells ~6.6M units per year.

EDIT: Then by my quick reckoning, Tesla are currently on-par with Ford, but will be more efficient in the future...

Come on folks, it's obvious that Tesla deliberately over-produced inventory to allow for last-minute sales up to midnight. They've made an inventory as a service to customers. Can't imagine any other manufacturer being so client-focussed. Love it!

This Electrek story received repetition through Reuters, MarketWatch, etc. Of course, this is not typical of Electrek articles.

All the negative article make their way to CNBS, sorry, BC too. A load from SA get posted on their $TSLA page too, never understood that, but there your go.

 

[mongo]

OT rambling on the last day of this thread...

Can we get a few days of drop to start out the year? Some of us have IRA contributions to make, dontyaknow.

I'm sort of happy to end the year on a lower (but up for the year) note to minimize my RMD for next year... Would be happier if I'd taken this year's a week early. As it is, the green bump of Wednesday worked in my favor, assuming Vanguard gets the money transferred out per their schedule...

May you all have a Happy and prosperous New Year!

 

[ZachF]

Ugh, have been busy cooking most of the day - always make the wife a new recipe on NYEve and today's she's got a provencal beef stew with pureed cauliflower on the side - and jolly tasty it all was too!

Is it the future yet in Belgium?

 

[Zaxxon]

Is it the future yet in Belgium?

 

[BornToFly]

I got kicked out of NFLX, FB and AMZN on deep out of money covered calls early 2014, when all of these stocks had break-outs. And that's how I ended up in TSLA, missing on 2-4x that other stocks would have offered me. Now that I feel TSLA is due for break-out, I don't want to repeat mistake.
Don't get me wrong, I had a lot of success with many covered calls expiring worthless, it just eventually, one stumbles; I feel risk/reward is not in our favour on massive growth stocks like TSLA. I will still write covered call when I'm sure that I want to exit certain percentage of position at certain price...

Your story is why I didn't write any covered calls this week. I'm waiting to see how the market digests the delivery numbers on Wed/Thursday. The following week I'll write some covered calls, if there is no break-out and the SP has its normally volatility, until we get to the week before ER, at which point I will sit that week out again.

 

[Tslynk67]

Is it the future yet in Belgium?

Hope, one hour to go here... off to bed...

 

[Sancho]

2018 TSLA SP:

Bad news: no breakout
Good news: no bankwuptcy

2019 TSLA SP: I’m optimistic

Happy New Year to all the marvelous souls I hang out with here every friggin day of this rollercoaster ride to the unknown.

 

[KarenRei]

So I just got back from filming on Geirsnef, where we were given a preview of Shortsville in 2019:

 

[humbaba]

Tesla ~250 Service Centers. Tesla will sell ~250k units this year and ~400k next year.

Ford ~7500 Dealerships. Ford sells ~6.6M units per year.

since you like answering rhetorical questions, here's another one: how many Teslas were sold online? How many fords?