See the chart in this post.
~418 is 50MA so, yes closing above 418 is quite desirable for movement in the next few days. Conversely, going below and especially closing below 406...look out...
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
See the chart in this post.
~418 is 50MA so, yes closing above 418 is quite desirable for movement in the next few days. Conversely, going below and especially closing below 406...look out...
AimStellar
Member
Unfortunately, my observations of today's trends (further informed by recent trends, see: last 1-2 wks) compels me to predict a $409 TSLA share price at today's close.
Relatedly, might anyone be so kind as to ELI5: How and why is short selling legal?
This is a genuine question, and I'm an attorney... But at 32, I neither felt financially positioned nor began to pay attention, much less open up, fund, and utilize a self-directed brokerage account until COVID-19 hit. So, in short (no pun intended) I'm very much still learning.
Thanks
Relatedly, might anyone be so kind as to ELI5: How and why is short selling legal?
This is a genuine question, and I'm an attorney... But at 32, I neither felt financially positioned nor began to pay attention, much less open up, fund, and utilize a self-directed brokerage account until COVID-19 hit. So, in short (no pun intended) I'm very much still learning.
Thanks
Its just another vehicle that extends the various ways one can buy and sell interest. It brings balance to the force, so to speak. In other forms of competition there are direct winners and losers (sports, elections, etc.) where one's interest in side A's success explicitly requires loss on side B. Selling short is the closest one can come to that in the market, because you're betting against the person on the other side of the contract.
Technical analysis on Tesla for the week. We tested and bounced off near the low end of the consolidation zone at about $407, this is a strong support area. Also, the bottom of the uptrend channel going back to June. These are two key support areas. I see Tesla going higher from here next week barring a market sell off. It can reach $440 or higher.
Some Tesla news this week:
-Wedbush’s Dan Ives raises price target to $500
-Tesla battery researcher, Jeff Dahn, shows new test results pointing to batteries lasting over 2 million miles
-Tesla third quarter registrations in California drop 13%
-Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) price will increase by $2,000
Some Tesla news this week:
-Wedbush’s Dan Ives raises price target to $500
-Tesla battery researcher, Jeff Dahn, shows new test results pointing to batteries lasting over 2 million miles
-Tesla third quarter registrations in California drop 13%
-Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) price will increase by $2,000
Price held up well today while everything else was down bigtime. I consider that a good technical indicator without even pulling up a chart.
$406 held today, though dropped down to $403.12 in AH.
For macro funsies, S&P looks like it has a bit of room below
Dow is in an accumulation zone and has some decent support below, including 200MA.
If it wasn't for the election next week, I'd be YOLOing my kid's college fund if Dow confirmed 26000 and S&P confirmed 3200. Flip side, if both drop out, look out below...
Edit: 30 year is also fixin on a TLB and 50MA break. So if that happens AND dow and S&P drop below above numbers, hold on!
For macro funsies, S&P looks like it has a bit of room below
Dow is in an accumulation zone and has some decent support below, including 200MA.
If it wasn't for the election next week, I'd be YOLOing my kid's college fund if Dow confirmed 26000 and S&P confirmed 3200. Flip side, if both drop out, look out below...
Edit: 30 year is also fixin on a TLB and 50MA break. So if that happens AND dow and S&P drop below above numbers, hold on!
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Technical analysis on Tesla stock for week ending 10/31/2020. Tesla breaks below key support level at $405. MACD and RSI looking very bearish short term. Overall market sell off is dragging Tesla down, nothing has changed fundamentally. Bull thesis price target for next week, first needs to recapture $405 level. If it can break above that, then $422 is the next significant test. Bear thesis for next week is $369, if that breaks then next significant support is $349 (only likely if market continues with correction).
Tesla news this week includes:
-Tesla’s Autopilot a ‘distant second’ to GM’s Super Cruise system in Consumer Reports testing
-Tesla makes massive push for service to catch up with sales
-Tesla launches new Energy Plan to offer low electricity rates with solar and powerwall Virtual Power Plants
Tesla news this week includes:
-Tesla’s Autopilot a ‘distant second’ to GM’s Super Cruise system in Consumer Reports testing
-Tesla makes massive push for service to catch up with sales
-Tesla launches new Energy Plan to offer low electricity rates with solar and powerwall Virtual Power Plants
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I know we’re in the technicals thread, and I think technicals have been nailing key levels lately ($406/$386), but I think fundamentals are in the driver’s seat for this next move.
I'm reading people saying we are "busting out", perhaps joyful at price moving higher.
I used to track trading volume closely, for those that want a good idea on busting out, I suggest doing so. Choose a volume average you are comfortable with, 5 day, 30 day, etc.. The market is composed of certain trading hours, I would divide trading volume by 13, as in there are 13 30 minute periods in a trading day. First hour and last hour always trade heavier. Compare averages with what is happening giving this math can help one follow price volume relationships technically.
Example, I see a big red day a few days ago, 10/30, about 43 M shares. 3.3 M per 30 min. It is now approaching the end of the 3rd period, so if volume were trending higher, we would want to see in excess of 9.9 M shares so far (although first hour is higher volume, so maybe we want MUCH higher than 9.9 M, or we want to see much higher than 3.3 M at current prices over last 30 minutes). Volume thus far is 14.6M.
Edit @1126: Vol 18.1 M, plus 3.5M for 30 min. Just on par with a few days ago. price has come in a bit. For a Great day, prefer much more volume, but time will tell. A volatile day to be doing much.
My opinion is this is a maybe bust out move based upon volume, not a great move.
One can also just keep a 30 min per bar chart open or accessible.
Again, I no longer really trade based upon this, just something
to keep in mind.
I used to track trading volume closely, for those that want a good idea on busting out, I suggest doing so. Choose a volume average you are comfortable with, 5 day, 30 day, etc.. The market is composed of certain trading hours, I would divide trading volume by 13, as in there are 13 30 minute periods in a trading day. First hour and last hour always trade heavier. Compare averages with what is happening giving this math can help one follow price volume relationships technically.
Example, I see a big red day a few days ago, 10/30, about 43 M shares. 3.3 M per 30 min. It is now approaching the end of the 3rd period, so if volume were trending higher, we would want to see in excess of 9.9 M shares so far (although first hour is higher volume, so maybe we want MUCH higher than 9.9 M, or we want to see much higher than 3.3 M at current prices over last 30 minutes). Volume thus far is 14.6M.
Edit @1126: Vol 18.1 M, plus 3.5M for 30 min. Just on par with a few days ago. price has come in a bit. For a Great day, prefer much more volume, but time will tell. A volatile day to be doing much.
My opinion is this is a maybe bust out move based upon volume, not a great move.
One can also just keep a 30 min per bar chart open or accessible.
Again, I no longer really trade based upon this, just something
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Cant edit the above, now an hour later, volume is 21.8M, not a big jump. Expected in a way with lunch time. Perhaps some play over next hour, lull or weak moves 1330 until 1430, after which better end direction for the day expected. NOT A BREAKOUT volume day though.
I'm pretty sure I've dipped into the topic upthread, but adding on @MABMAB's posts above, volume can be a helpful indicator of price targets and possible price action. If your platform has the ability to chart candles by volume you can highlight price zones of accumulation and distribution. A small candle, especially one with small wicks, means a lot of volume in a small price range. That's an indication of big orders being filled, typically institutional or otherwise people with more money and more smarters than me. These are useful data points as price often returns to these zones for more accumulation/distribution and, following the logic that big movers are smarter than you or I, its worth assessing possible price action out of one of these zones. Obviously its not a standalone technical indicator (there's no such thing) and there's no binary way to draw or read these kinds of charts, but they can definitely be another element in developing a high probability technical entry point.
Below are two examples, a 10M share candle chart on the left and 2M on the right. I usually draw horizontal price ranges (so, like the green ranges on the right) but also am cognizant that people smarter and with more money than me are constantly updating their price targets, and so there can be some drift in the channel such that its not horizontal. (You can take the one on the left even further by creating a curve, but...at some point you're trying to curve fit a solution and that's generally not a good idea).
Anyway, you can see the small ~$1 range on the right chart between $410 and $411 has two quick returns (both of which would be buy signals, the second one weaker than the first), and then as time moves on the range still generally is significant. The largest range between ~$421 and ~$427 also got a lot of distribution action on 10/27 (distribution, since the price dropped from there) and again saw a good amount of action today. The same price range is also evident on the left chart. What this doesn't tell you is the nature of the volume (accumulation vs distribution), but rather the potentially significant entry (and exit) points. Other indicators can inform possible direction: Election not withstanding today's pro gap is a bullish sign (the pro gap was really the buy signal today, hitting the distribution zone was a sell signal) and the resistance at the convergence of the 20ma and 50ma is significant. Breaking above the MA convergence gives the price a bit of room to run up--say, mid $440's, maybe even high 440's which corresponds to a forming trend line down. Not breaking above the MA convergence could signal a drop to 400 or below, especially if the macros go wonky.
Note that none of my open TSLA positions are using this analysis, and I have not made nor do I plan to make any TSLA trades based on this analysis. My concern over Macro outweighs any potentially opportunity on TSLA.
FYI, @juanmedina.
Below are two examples, a 10M share candle chart on the left and 2M on the right. I usually draw horizontal price ranges (so, like the green ranges on the right) but also am cognizant that people smarter and with more money than me are constantly updating their price targets, and so there can be some drift in the channel such that its not horizontal. (You can take the one on the left even further by creating a curve, but...at some point you're trying to curve fit a solution and that's generally not a good idea).
Anyway, you can see the small ~$1 range on the right chart between $410 and $411 has two quick returns (both of which would be buy signals, the second one weaker than the first), and then as time moves on the range still generally is significant. The largest range between ~$421 and ~$427 also got a lot of distribution action on 10/27 (distribution, since the price dropped from there) and again saw a good amount of action today. The same price range is also evident on the left chart. What this doesn't tell you is the nature of the volume (accumulation vs distribution), but rather the potentially significant entry (and exit) points. Other indicators can inform possible direction: Election not withstanding today's pro gap is a bullish sign (the pro gap was really the buy signal today, hitting the distribution zone was a sell signal) and the resistance at the convergence of the 20ma and 50ma is significant. Breaking above the MA convergence gives the price a bit of room to run up--say, mid $440's, maybe even high 440's which corresponds to a forming trend line down. Not breaking above the MA convergence could signal a drop to 400 or below, especially if the macros go wonky.
Note that none of my open TSLA positions are using this analysis, and I have not made nor do I plan to make any TSLA trades based on this analysis. My concern over Macro outweighs any potentially opportunity on TSLA.
FYI, @juanmedina.
Failing to move today on $TSLA is a bit concerning, but as long as we hold the lower support line we are fine.
I think $TSLA moves out of the upper resistance line and we can see $500 again.
I think $TSLA moves out of the upper resistance line and we can see $500 again.
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