TSLA Technical Analysis

[MABMAB]

Technical analysis on Tesla stock for week ending 11/28/2020. Tesla breaks out and sets new all time highs! If the bullish momentum continues, the next resistance level falls at around $625. If Tesla pulls back, the potential areas of support fall at the channels it broke out of at around $568, and $548.

Tesla news this week includes:
-Tesla gets $1,000 bull-case price target from Wedbush’s Dan Ives on China, Europe outlook
-Elon Musk has overtaken Bill Gates to become the world’s second richest person

Upon what basis can anyone claim resistance at 625 from a technical analysis perspective?

 

[Criscmt]

The goal of the bullish flag I described a week ago has been reached (with a few points of overshooting). I hope we are in the middle of forming another bullish flag (top 598, bottom 582). If that is true and we break out to the upside next week, the next goal would become 780

Bring it on!

> I hope we are in the middle of forming another bullish flag
Does this mean, you don't see the "bullish flag" (yet) as well formed as you did when you posted a week ago?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

> I hope we are in the middle of forming another bullish flag
Does this mean, you don't see the "bullish flag" (yet) as well formed as you did when you posted a week ago?

The pattern is still forming and has not yet been completed. Only after completion will the SP goal have any validity. The pattern could still flounder if we have a big drop. And the length and heigth of the flag are not very impressive yet, so take it with a grain of salt.

My hope also comes from being long with a lot of short puts that are ITM. But I’m pretty confident we will be seeing 700 and probably also 800.

 

[bxr140]

Upon what basis can anyone claim resistance at 625 from a technical analysis perspective?

Likely it’s the expected rise out of a flag. Possibly some fib pricing?

 

[MABMAB]

Likely it’s the expected rise out of a flag. Possibly some fib pricing?

No. There might be supply at some overhead point, but where is not known. We have never traded at these prices, there are no identifiable resistance points. Nobody has any psychological connection up here as it has never traded here. If it trades up to some price point X be it 625 or not, then drops in price for a while, then point X could be potential resistance as a company trades back up to it.
Support and Resistance Basics

 

[bxr140]

No. There might be supply at some overhead point, but where is not known. We have never traded at these prices, there are no identifiable resistance points. Nobody has any psychological connection up here as it has never traded here. If it trades up to some price point X be it 625 or not, then drops in price for a while, then point X could be potential resistance as a company trades back up to it.
Support and Resistance Basics

Indeed.

I appreciate that it’s easy to get hung up on the use of the word ‘resistance’, but it’s clear that ‘resistance at $625’ wasn’t used in context of the narrow definition of support/resistance but rather a more general area where price may stagnate or reverse. It’s a common way to describe such areas.

Again, how that $625 price was calculated is likely based on a particular analyst’s interpretation of the move out of the flag, but if could also be some secret sauce fib or wave analysis.

FTR none of that means I necessarily concur with the analysis—you’ll be happy to hear that I trade ATH very carefully, and in fact most of my trading is anchored in accumulation and distribution zones. I just happen to also realize that other folks have other methods of analysis that work for them.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The pattern is still forming and has not yet been completed. Only after completion will the SP goal have any validity. The pattern could still flounder if we have a big drop. And the length and heigth of the flag are not very impressive yet, so take it with a grain of salt.

My hope also comes from being long with a lot of short puts that are ITM. But I’m pretty confident we will be seeing 700 and probably also 800.

That possible bullish flag is finally getting some serious shape (heigth, length). If we break out above 600 over the next few trading days, the TA price target would be about 740.

The first leg from 408 to 608 measured 200 points. In case of a bullish breakout from the flag pattern you could add 200 points to the low point of the flag, yesterday’s low of 541.


No advice

 

[rexmakesbeats]

No. There might be supply at some overhead point, but where is not known. We have never traded at these prices, there are no identifiable resistance points. Nobody has any psychological connection up here as it has never traded here. If it trades up to some price point X be it 625 or not, then drops in price for a while, then point X could be potential resistance as a company trades back up to it.
Support and Resistance Basics

The pattern is still forming and has not yet been completed. Only after completion will the SP goal have any validity. The pattern could still flounder if we have a big drop. And the length and heigth of the flag are not very impressive yet, so take it with a grain of salt.

My hope also comes from being long with a lot of short puts that are ITM. But I’m pretty confident we will be seeing 700 and probably also 800.

Likely it’s the expected rise out of a flag. Possibly some fib pricing?

No. There might be supply at some overhead point, but where is not known. We have never traded at these prices, there are no identifiable resistance points. Nobody has any psychological connection up here as it has never traded here. If it trades up to some price point X be it 625 or not, then drops in price for a while, then point X could be potential resistance as a company trades back up to it.
Support and Resistance Basics

if you extend the channels within which Tesla has been trading in, you can extrapolate the potential resistance points from where the top of the channel lies.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis on Tesla stock for week ending 12/05/2020. Tesla dipped sharply on Wednesday before recovering and closing above key support levels and retesting $600 resistance at the end of the week. Tesla has found support along the uptrend channel and will need to hold above $590 going into next week to continue its bullish momentum. If it holds above this level, it can run up to $615 resistance, and if it can break above that level, the next major resistance is at around $640. However, on the bear side, if $590 support doesn’t hold up, Tesla could fall down to support at around $560! Tesla pulls back after hitting $600 resistance!

Tesla news this week includes:
-Elon Musk wants Tesla to focus on profits or warns that TSLA will fall like ‘souffle under a sledgehammer’
-‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry reveals he’s short Tesla, tells Elon Musk to issue more stock at its ‘ridiculous price’
-Tesla stock heads for record close after Goldman Sachs upgrade

 

[MABMAB]

if you extend the channels within which Tesla has been trading in, you can extrapolate the potential resistance points from where the top of the channel lies.

That would not be a resistance point.

I think many fail to understand the origins of supply and resistance.

John Murphy's "Charting Made Easy" [ChartSchool]

 

[rexmakesbeats]

That would not be a resistance point.

I think many fail to understand the origins of supply and resistance.

John Murphy's "Charting Made Easy" [ChartSchool]

resistance levels are not just simply drawing a line across recent highs.

"As mentioned, there are far finer technical analysis tools that incorporate the concept of resistance while being far more dynamic and informative than drawing a resistance line across recent highs. These include trendlines, price by volume (PBV) charts and the whole swath of moving averages that can be tweaked by time periods to offer a spectrum for resistance levels."

 

[MABMAB]

oh that imaginary resistance just blew on out!

 

[bxr140]

oh that imaginary resistance just blew on out!

I appreciate that your understanding of resistance is more novice than others and don't want to kick a noob just for being a noob, but you may want to tone down your agressive posture. After all, that's the whole point of resistance. It is a statistically relevant (if not somewhat abstracted) price point where movement is more likely to find, at the risk of stating the obvious, some resistance...before either pushing through or reversing. It can be a horizontal price, a linear or logarithmic trend line, all manner of moving averages, a fan, a wave, a zone, etc. Botton line, I'd encourage you (and others) to learn more about resistance (and obviously, support). You'll find it not just quite useful, but a fundamental element of technical trading.

Ironically, 625-630 did provide some serious resistance today, $625 being the price point that started all this...

Trying to get back to technical discussion, for some day trading analysis, despite trading way above FTPs (which, admittedly, seem to be more useful with higher volume futures/forex) there was a decent symmetrical formed mid-day with a corollary decreasing volume trend. The break out to the upside came with a nice spike in volume, indicating a good entry point around 1010-1015. An exit might have been triggered by the drop just after 1130, probably netting ~1% or maybe a bit more on underlying, but if position was held through the bullish signal of back to back big R/G candles, a trader would have expected further upward price movement, possibly netting ~2.5% on underlying, exiting just before 1230. Not bad for a ~2 hour position.

 

[MABMAB]

Overhead Resistance Determines A Stock’s Performance

I like to keep things simple. There is no longer any overhead resistance.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Overhead Resistance Determines A Stock’s Performance

I like to keep things simple. There is no longer any overhead resistance.

Good luck! Like @bxr140 said You have to know support/resistance areas if you want an edge to this market. $TSLA will not always go straight forever. Being a technical trader and doing it properly will allow you to pull many more points out of TSLA than just staying long. Now if $TSLA is a long term investment and something you want to keep in your portfolio w/o reducing exposure than maybe you want to stay long and knowing technicals isn’t nearly as important. However, your posting on the technical analysis page so I assume that’s not the case.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Overhead Resistance Determines A Stock’s Performance

I like to keep things simple. There is no longer any overhead resistance.

Overhead resistance is pissed off owners who bought at higher prices. That's simple.

Now consider this, with the S&P inclusion event, the share price will likely spike upward and then settle down to a level somewhat lower than the peak. Are those buyers, who bought during massive spikes, going to be pissed off? Who cares! Those buyers are going to be index fund managers who have to hold even if they'd like to sell into strength. This is like the ultimate plan coming together.

Best company, best leader, the right technologies at the right time. Now this. The stars are perfectly aligned. My apologies if my excitement went off-topic.

 

[MABMAB]

For those that accepted 625 as an overhead resistance point, please identify the next several such overhead resistance points. Perhaps include some charts marked up to show them. Thank you.

 

[jeewee3000]

Overhead resistance is pissed off owners who bought at higher prices.

Lol, I never heard it phrased this way. So true.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis on Tesla stock for week ending 12/12/2020. Tesla’s bullish momentum hits a snag as it stalls in the $600’s. Tesla dipped sharply on Thursday before reversing. It’s found itself right at $610 support on Friday. If bulls can push it higher, the next resistance levels first lie at $628, then $660. However, bearish MACD and RSI are indicating a potential break below $610 support to test $585 support, and if that level breaks then $575 would be next level of support.

Tesla news this week includes:
-Gene Munster: Tesla could soar another 300% as the company expands its tech outside the auto industry
-Ryan Brinkman: Tesla gets $90 price target from JPMorgan
-Tesla to raise up to $5 billion in share offering

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Where are the current Fib levels to get an idea about this upward move?