There she goes. Two more trading days for a confirmation?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- elon is an ass TSLA
There she goes. Two more trading days for a confirmation?
I keep having images of Jack-in-the-boxes going through my head. Not the fast food chain, but the thing where you wind up the spring for a while then in suddenly goes "Pop".
Everyone draws differently and generally in the "whatever works for you" camp, but I'd also caution that drawing on charts--especially re-drawing--can easily start with an answer, like convenient convergence at earnings.
Also be advised that triangles lose strength the deeper price goes. Somewhere around 1/2 to 3/4 the way in is where you really want the breakout. Especially if you go past 3/4 or so it is no longer a tradable formation. (There still may be trades, just not on the triangle)
I also prefer log charts for TSLA because of the massive movement in underlying but again, EMMV.
Anyway, IMHO the symmetrical is a bit blown out at this point. I have four yellow downtrends shown below from the ATH, progressively re-drawn as time went on, the first three of which have since spoiled and the fourth one is really just there for show. The first break (the lowest TL) was a little weak as the open was basically just on the TL and it spoiled big time with the huge lower wick. The second one was a decent break but was also an amateur gap and didn't bring a volume spike, which is probably why it didn't materialize. The third one had a promising break yesterday but didn't show strength or volume and so also fizzled.
The good news is that we're also forming a bit of an ascending triangle (the green line). The bottom of the triangle is kind of a "pick your line" so its not super well formed, but either way the top side (there important side) is shaping up pretty solidly. While its splitting hairs a bit right now IMHO the entry is on break of the ascending, not the most recent symmetrical TL.
Man that 448- 450 wall is strong. Many are predicting that it'll take a good ER to break it, but once broken then 523ish the stock goes.
Agreed that the big triangle has become less of a story over time. It seems most here have an bias expecting a breakout to the upside with earnings. Perhaps that is why we see an ascending triangle now. Regardless, consolidation with decreasing ATR is happening; just wish TE could obviously forecast the breakout direction. It is rare for the SP to do well on good earnings numbers, but things are different now with consecutive profitable quarters.
BTW, general question: what are the issues with TE using the open/close (what I usually use) vs the max/min (which it looks like the yellow lines used). Does it make a difference in usefulness?
Just dropped a box of spaghetti yesterday
BTW, general question: what are the issues with TE using the open/close (what I usually use) vs the max/min (which it looks like the yellow lines used). Does it make a difference in usefulness?
It will be very interesting to see if the calls keep the stock below 500 prior to earnings as I doubt it will after earnings.
What do folks think about the large number of calls sitting between 450 to 500 keeping the stock down?
What do folks think about the large number of calls sitting between 450 to 500 keeping the stock down?
Yeah 449 is really strong.
It is again a YMMV thing, but that's what I was taught (by a guy who spent a couple decades in the pit at the Chicago Merc, so I assume he knows more than I could ever dream) and that's also what I've found to provide more useful analysis/results/entryexit points. Generally I'll draw on the H/L points allowing some wick overshoot but NOT any O/C overshoot. If there's an obvious fit with an O/C on a candle I won't ignore it, and if there's a wee bit of O/C overshoot on an otherwise obvious trend line I'll let it slide, but I'm super conscious of "curve fitting" trendlines. Getting a false positive because you forced a trend line to look pretty is a shitty way to lose money. Using H/L also generally ends up more conservative than O/C, so your entry points on TLBs are more conservative. I'm ok with that.
Linear vs log is a bit more nebulous. Most of technical analysis is really just trying to identify the same things everyone else is identifying (and trading on) so you can get on that bus too, and in general more traders use log at least for daily and above timeframes, but I'm not about to carve that one in stone.
Technical analysis have been predicting a day like today for the past 2 weeks while the main thread calls this trash. It's really a clairvoyant. Hell the video I watched yesterday was titled "Kaboom" for the price action of Tesla going forward, going to test new highs.
While today was a good day to be a TSLA owner, I wouldn't call this a breakout. Not enough volume and not a big enough move. Hopefully it will prove to be the start of a breakout but it could prove to simply be a failure of the chart pattern we all saw. A dud.
Today was a fantastic day under terrible macro. Tesla could have easily followed macro(which was baked into the technical analysis as a possibility) but didn't with increase volume after breaking that 450 wall. These are all just signals giving trading algro or technical followers to buy in on the bullish trend. Just for context, I only follow this stuff to see the trend, bullish or bearish. Technical analysis looks at bear and bull signals daily, and for the past 2 weeks the signal has been leaning bullish to definitely bullish come this week.
Bernie Schaeffer was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. Here is a link to what his assistant editor wrote yesterday about Tesla: Signal Says Don't Sweat the Tesla Stock Pullback
I wonder what Carl Renz thinks? I would trust his technical analysis more than anyone else, period.
i think the guy in that video was carl renz
curt, however, should be chiming in soon to straighten us out
Thank you. For Tesla during September-October there appears to be what I called in my book a Bullish Wedge Formation. As would be expected, it's occurred with declining trading volume following the strong March-August rise. The implication is that after the wedge finishes narrowing, the next longer-term move will be a return to the earlier uptrend.
Last edited:
Chart Monkeys now will swarm!
https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-of-the-day/tesla-stock-near-buy-point-tesla-earnings/
https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-of-the-day/tesla-stock-near-buy-point-tesla-earnings/
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Does anybody see the trend line defined by the most recent lows?
A close at about $418 or higher would be great.
A close at about $418 or higher would be great.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Locked
