TSLA Technical Analysis

[Robert.Boston]

We do seem to have a very well formed wedge pattern, with both the support and resistance tested 3 times. What is also interesting that for the past four days we are testing the resistance and it seem to culminate today with a hammer. Looks like we have a very good setup for the pre-earnings run-up.

I'm certainly hoping so! My portfolio is set up for a solid bump at the Q4 ER.

 

[mejojo]

+1

I certainly could use some good medicine for my March options....a little overweight on those.

 

[tdiggity]

I have a simpler explanation. Volume was very low and the price was easily controlled. According to my model, "Max Pain" was at 202.50 strike and it has since drifted down to 200 due to a large number of calls bought at or under 202.5. Of course, this only works for very short term projections on low volume. Apple grabbed lots of volume yesterday.

I made a couple max-pain plays for the past two weeks too, each time I bought PUTS. Since earnings is coming up in a few weeks, I'll only play the max-pain game if It's buying CALLS.

 

[vgrinshpun]

We do seem to have a very well formed wedge pattern, with both the support and resistance tested 3 times. What is also interesting that for the past four days we are testing the resistance and it seem to culminate today with a hammer. Looks like we have a very good setup for the pre-earnings run-up.

So far we do seem to break out of the wedge formation on a volume that is about twice of tha volume that we saw in the last week or so. Hopefully we can close a day at this level.

 

[FluxCap]

So far we do seem to break out of the wedge formation on a volume that is about twice of tha volume that we saw in the last week or so. Hopefully we can close a day at this level.

Thanks for the chart vgrin, looks interesting. I saw your post last week and agreed -- we seemed set up for a technical pre-ER lurch upward. I'm currently predicting we enter ER around 215-220, but we shall see.

 

[chickensevil]

Thanks for the chart vgrin, looks interesting. I saw your post last week and agreed -- we seemed set up for a technical pre-ER lurch upward. I'm currently predicting we enter ER around 215-220, but we shall see.

After the last few ER experiences I really would like to be out of my calls before the 11th so a run up pre-ER would be nice. Especially if my calls are just going to be gain volatility value up to the 11th. Might be a great idea to just sell unless I *really* think we are going to shoot up in a big way.

 

[austinEV]

Finally cleared the 20 day.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Finally cleared the 20 day.

But still lagging the 200-day of $228.88. (Here's looking at you, Raffy....)

 

[austinEV]

actually at the 50 day now. Interesting to see if we clear that too.

 

[chickensevil]

From what I can gather about the wedge and breakout is that we *should* go back to the prior uptrend pattern. Which should mean getting back north of about 225-230. If you are a believer in the technicals then that would be the bottom price range I would expect us to get back to in the short term

 

[callnaveen]

From what I can gather about the wedge and breakout is that we *should* go back to the prior uptrend pattern. Which should mean getting back north of about 225-230. If you are a believer in the technicals then that would be the bottom price range I would expect us to get back to in the short term

View attachment 71195

Good analysis thank you!!!!!

 

[vgrinshpun]

From what I can gather about the wedge and breakout is that we *should* go back to the prior uptrend pattern. Which should mean getting back north of about 225-230. If you are a believer in the technicals then that would be the bottom price range I would expect us to get back to in the short term

I am not sure whether we will break through the next resistance level of $228.50 from Dec 26th before the ER. The last couple of days there was slight increase in volume, but it was not very decisive. Given the uncertainty of what will transpire at the ER next week, it just feels that there will not be enough momentum to break through the $228.50 resistance before the ER.

 

[chickensevil]

I am not sure whether we will break through the next resistance level of $228.50 from Dec 26th before the ER. The last couple of days there was slight increase in volume, but it was not very decisive. Given the uncertainty of what will transpire at the ER next week, it just feels that there will not be enough momentum to break through the $228.50 resistance before the ER.

View attachment 71253

In fairness, I included 225... Haha! I know that breaking the trend of lower highs and lower lows is going to be tough to break a little positive news sure would go a long way

 

[vgrinshpun]

In fairness, I included 225... Haha! I know that breaking the trend of lower highs and lower lows is going to be tough to break a little positive news sure would go a long way

OK, will make it a deal then, TSLA will settle between $225 and $228 pre-ER. :smile:
Will decide where to go from there based on ER information...

 

[maoing]

228.5 is a very strong resistance. 200MA plus the down trend line from ATH to post Q3 ER high to 228 level. If we are lucky, I think SP might tease this level briefly before ER. But retreat is high probability. To 228.5, theoretically SP jumped 43 points from 185 low, if no major catalysts, then it's due for a consolidation.

I am not sure whether we will break through the next resistance level of $228.50 from Dec 26th before the ER. The last couple of days there was slight increase in volume, but it was not very decisive. Given the uncertainty of what will transpire at the ER next week, it just feels that there will not be enough momentum to break through the $228.50 resistance before the ER.

 

[maoing]

An interesting observation for the last 3 big down cycles in the past 1.5 years.
1) ATH @ 194 on 10/01/13, low point of down cycle @ 116 on 11/26/13, down cycle takes less than 2 months. Then the up cycle peaked @ 265 on 2/26/14, up cycle takes 3 months;
2) ATH @ 265 on 02/26/14, low point of down cycle @ 177 on 05/09/14, down cycle takes 2.5 months. Then the up cycle peaked @ 291 on 09/04/14, up cycle takes 4 months;
3) ATH @ 291 on 09/04/14, assume low point of down cycle @ 185 on 01/14/15, down cycle takes 4.5 months.

Based on above observation, the down and up cycles take longer and longer because TSLA was losing mania gradually. Extrapolated from previous two down and up cycles, I guess the new ATH might be hit around 6 months from 1/14/15. It could be coincident with model X reveal and blow-out Q2 ER. Historically 291 ATH was hit with Gigafactory deal, in 2015, the model X reveal is the only major event IMO.

 

[chickensevil]

228.5 is a very strong resistance. 200MA plus the down trend line from ATH to post Q3 ER high to 228 level. If we are lucky, I think SP might tease this level briefly before ER. But retreat is high probability. To 228.5, theoretically SP jumped 43 points from 185 low, if no major catalysts, then it's due for a consolidation.

View attachment 71261

I'm sure it will have a minor pullback before we propel higher. Stocks don't trade in just one direction. We also historically (at least best as I can remember) have a consolidation/selloff just before (the one or two days prior) to the ER. Wouldn't surprise me to see us finish this climb through Friday, trade roughly flat for Monday, and then be in the red on Tues/Wed. Barring no major macro event or significant Tesla news.

 

[maoing]

I have similar feeling. Check the 3 big red bars before Q1 ER. Rally all the way from 190 to 218, then took two days dropped to 200 before ER, the post ER day was -10%. So it's bathblooding 40 points drop in 3 days.

I'm sure it will have a minor pullback before we propel higher. Stocks don't trade in just one direction. We also historically (at least best as I can remember) have a consolidation/selloff just before (the one or two days prior) to the ER. Wouldn't surprise me to see us finish this climb through Friday, trade roughly flat for Monday, and then be in the red on Tues/Wed. Barring no major macro event or significant Tesla news.

 

[chickensevil]

An interesting observation for the last 3 big down cycles in the past 1.5 years.
1) ATH @ 194 on 10/01/13, low point of down cycle @ 116 on 11/26/13, down cycle takes less than 2 months. Then the up cycle peaked @ 265 on 2/26/14, up cycle takes 3 months;
2) ATH @ 265 on 02/26/14, low point of down cycle @ 177 on 05/09/14, down cycle takes 2.5 months. Then the up cycle peaked @ 291 on 09/04/14, up cycle takes 4 months;
3) ATH @ 291 on 09/04/14, assume low point of down cycle @ 185 on 01/14/15, down cycle takes 4.5 months.

Based on above observation, the down and up cycles take longer and longer because TSLA was losing mania gradually. Extrapolated from previous two down and up cycles, I guess the new ATH might be hit around 6 months from 1/14/15. It could be coincident with model X reveal and blow-out Q2 ER. Historically 291 ATH was hit with Gigafactory deal, in 2015, the model X reveal is the only major event IMO.

If we have a down right around 6 months then you would be looking for a decently negative event surrounding the X release. Since 6 months is roughly the July/August timeframe. I subscribed to the up down cycles in the past as well, but generally just to predict when we would hit the bottom, not the top. I guess it works both ways but boy, I wouldn't be betting the farm against anything but spectacular news surrounding the MX as a product (although there could be other reasons for a drop outside of that... I don't really want to think about it)

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I have similar feeling. Check the 3 big red bars before Q1 ER. Rally all the way from 190 to 218, then took two days dropped to 200 before ER, the post ER day was -10%. So it's bathblooding 40 points drop in 3 days.

Yeah ER could go either way obviously, positive news and price drop, negative/neutral news price increase... Can figure that one out sometimes) but the pre ER buildup for this stock is different from other stocks I have watched.

 

[maoing]

Sell on news is one of the biggest negatives, we've learnt from gigafactory deal and model D reveal.

Also same exact ER might have totally different market reaction per different timing and pricing.

If we have a down right around 6 months then you would be looking for a decently negative event surrounding the X release. Since 6 months is roughly the July/August timeframe. I subscribed to the up down cycles in the past as well, but generally just to predict when we would hit the bottom, not the top. I guess it works both ways but boy, I wouldn't be betting the farm against anything but spectacular news surrounding the MX as a product (although there could be other reasons for a drop outside of that... I don't really want to think about it)

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Yeah ER could go either way obviously, positive news and price drop, negative/neutral news price increase... Can figure that one out sometimes) but the pre ER buildup for this stock is different from other stocks I have watched.