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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Stars aligned
Member
The channel isn't anymore and I wonder what pattern develops next. Could be inverse head and shoulder which would be bullish.
Looking at opricot, both call and put sellers had a huge interest to move the price to todays levels. After they will have pocketed in the option premiums of this weeks expiry, the price might go up again. Interestingly today's price has flattened out very early and is slightly increasing towards the end of the session. Next weeks calls are mostly out of the money and will probably expire worthless.
Fundamentally this view is supported by the obvious signs that Tesla is disrupting the car industry and shows that it can master the growth. Also, if Elon is serious with his new battery production goal, he must have developed a *huge* technology advantage. Consequentially, big boys want to load up, take wherever they can get shares. I'm quite sure there are ongoing margin calls again.
As always this are my observations and interpretations, it's not an advice.
Looking at opricot, both call and put sellers had a huge interest to move the price to todays levels. After they will have pocketed in the option premiums of this weeks expiry, the price might go up again. Interestingly today's price has flattened out very early and is slightly increasing towards the end of the session. Next weeks calls are mostly out of the money and will probably expire worthless.
Fundamentally this view is supported by the obvious signs that Tesla is disrupting the car industry and shows that it can master the growth. Also, if Elon is serious with his new battery production goal, he must have developed a *huge* technology advantage. Consequentially, big boys want to load up, take wherever they can get shares. I'm quite sure there are ongoing margin calls again.
As always this are my observations and interpretations, it's not an advice.
Stars aligned
Member
Stars aligned
Member
In addition and in no way contra-dictionally, the following long term picture can be seen. Tesla failed to break back through the long term upwards support which became resistance in May. It fell until a downtrend support line.
The downtrend support line(s) act now as shoulder and the longterm uptrend support acts as neckline for the assumed inverse head and shoulder formation. The head is the 2014-2016 support line. It's a beautiful coincidence, isn't it?
PS for the log vs. lin folks, didn't do the log part
The downtrend support line(s) act now as shoulder and the longterm uptrend support acts as neckline for the assumed inverse head and shoulder formation. The head is the 2014-2016 support line. It's a beautiful coincidence, isn't it?
PS for the log vs. lin folks, didn't do the log part
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Antares Nebula
Active Member
230.06 and 224.55 gaps filled.
Remaining gaps at 204.50 and 196.59. I will be looking to add, IF it gets there.
Also, it seemed to have found support at the 50 SMA at 221. But I have noticed that Tesla doesn't really respond to moving averages, but more to pivot points (resistance and support levels based on prior history).
Remaining gaps at 204.50 and 196.59. I will be looking to add, IF it gets there.
Also, it seemed to have found support at the 50 SMA at 221. But I have noticed that Tesla doesn't really respond to moving averages, but more to pivot points (resistance and support levels based on prior history).
Stars aligned
Member
Seems 50 days MAV is also a pretty good indicator for the major movements of the stock. But unsurprisingly it hasn't been for the consolidation period July 2017 till Jan 2019.
Another interesting coincidence that the recent drop not only hit the resistance line but 50 MAV was at the same place, give and take some bucks.
Burrito
Member
so any readings or learning avenues to explore to learn some of the stuff you guys are doing? charts, predictions, etc. i have an MBA in supply chain and have basic knowledge of finance principals but never really dabbled in stocks. my investments are mostly index fund related outside of my retirement accounts. what can i look into to learning more (not specifically related to tsla)
seems we have some smart people here
seems we have some smart people here
Stars aligned
Member
Unfortunately I can't help much here. I try to recognise patterns in an amateurish way and believe TA really only helps for wrongly priced stocks in extreme situations, over- or undervalued. Those stocks often stay wrongly priced over a long period, sometimes over several years, and the wrong pricing gets more and more extreme. And then there is a good chance that meaningful patterns develop. Not sure why but it may be that smart money sets entry and exit points to maximise the size of the holdings and the price point and equally shorts set some exit points or vice versa if overvalued. Almost always, an undue acceleration in price and market sentiment can be observed before turning points.
And for a myriad of reasons Tesla's price development over the last 6 months screamed to be fundamentally wrong, especially after it broke below 250. But once the price will be normalised, the pattern will get lost in the surrounding noise.
For most stocks and situations, I think TA isn't better than tea leaf reading. I look out sometimes randomly, but found at this time no other stock that has a really interesting pattern.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
If you look on the hourly charts, you'll notice that there was a higher low right around 231/232, which formed a few days ago. That's exactly where the stock bottomed today. As long as that holds, it seems that TSLA is not breaking that higher low pattern. (Although there may have been another higher low around 237/240 -- unclear to me -- which TSLA did hold yesterday but break today). But 231/232 is definitive. If that breaks, then the pattern is broken and the risk of a new downtrend develops.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
I don't really know. I just picked it up here and there. But I think there are some good books if you google it. Otherwise there are various free internet resources, like investopedia, stockcharts, etc. Just google some of the terms, like cup and handle, pivot points, 200 day moving average, etc.
But my advice (after being an amateur, non-prof for 10 years) is don't even bother. Big waste of time. Unless you're extremely brilliant or willing to put in serious hours, trading is extremely hard. Even the pros get it right only 60% of the time (or so I'm told). Best is to buy and hold, like Warren Buffett. Just have cash so you can buy the dips. Ask Buffett. He doesn't trade around his core positions (whether with stocks or options). Also I doubt any prof trader has beat Buffett's long term record of about 20% over 20 plus years. Sure, as a trader, you'll get some big wins here and there, but can you consistently generate even 15% CAGR over the long term? Highly doubtful. And let's not even talk about the big losses here and there too.
The reasoning is simple: stock movements on a daily, weekly (or short term) basis is mostly random. So it's like rolling dice. 50/50 odds at best. Now, the really smart guys or pros, can maybe have an edge and bring the odds slightly into their favor.
Whereas long term investing is not random. Economies of good, productive nations, like USA, generally grow over time. And so, on average, the companies in those economies grow. Thus an index, like SP 500, on average, goes up over long time periods. Approx 10% CAGR. Of course there will be pullbacks, but generally the trend is up. Therefore the strategy is simply. Buy and hold SP 500, and add periodically or whenever there are pullbacks. Over time you can't lose.
Now, you can apply the above principle to individual stocks, but it's more risky. Because not all companies survive or do well. But generally, if you found a good company, like Coke or Apple (or maybe Tesla too), you can apply this same strategy.
tl;dr: If you believe that Tesla will be successful and grow, then buy and hold and buy on the dips too. But don't trade, as you're likely to lose or break even at best. You can instead spend that time being actually productive elsewhere or enjoying life.
(If you want to use Technical Analysis, TA, as part of your long term strategy instead of trading, then maybe okay. But even here, I question whether the time and effort is worth it. Just buy the dips and average down --seems simple enough.)
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Burrito
Member
thanks @Antares, i am a buy and hold guy, i did some quick trading a while back on penny weed stocks and basically like you said, it was alot of effort to basically breakeven. i want to get a better technical background to pick stocks for long term holding and have a little more strategy of when to buy. seems like options is a more short term game but thats an area i have no ideas of (calls and puts as you all say). i'll keep reading up on various forums and maybe pick up a book or 2 to invest in myself 
i was pretty happy with the stock yesterday until a tweet.. guess you cant predict everything
i was pretty happy with the stock yesterday until a tweet.. guess you cant predict everything
Technical analyst Tim Ord was my regular guest on our TV show. He publishes his newsletter Monday through Thursday, however below is what he wrote without elaboration after today's market close regarding his latest stance on the S&P 500 ETF (SPX).
For monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 8/2/19 at 2932.05
All the Best,
Tim Ord
Ord Oracle - Home
For monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 8/2/19 at 2932.05
All the Best,
Tim Ord
Ord Oracle - Home
Antares Nebula
Active Member
These guys are somewhat decent, and they do TA on TSLA from time to time:thanks @Antares, i am a buy and hold guy, i did some quick trading a while back on penny weed stocks and basically like you said, it was alot of effort to basically breakeven. i want to get a better technical background to pick stocks for long term holding and have a little more strategy of when to buy. seems like options is a more short term game but thats an area i have no ideas of (calls and puts as you all say). i'll keep reading up on various forums and maybe pick up a book or 2 to invest in myself
i was pretty happy with the stock yesterday until a tweet.. guess you cant predict everything
The Chart Guys
Stars aligned
Member
Anyone thinks we will break down from the extended channel and if yes to which point? Usually political bourses have short legs.
Sudre
Active Member
Since technicals can break based on news I would say it is likely we will break down for a bit. Let’s see how the day holds. If TSLA stays in the channel with the current market sentiment I’d say that is really positive for TSLA.
Stars aligned
Member
I'd expect some volume selling if we fall below the low reached on July 26. But for the moment, it seems we found some ground around 226ish.
Tim Ord earlier this afternoon:
Just a Heads Up. The Tick have reached bullish levels on today's decline but the TRIN has not so far today suggests market can move lower short term. We where thinking this morning that today's down gap could have been a "Exhaustion Gap". With further review it also could be a "mid point gap" (marks the 1/2 point of the move down). If Trin does not reach panic levels today we will be closing our long SPX position on the close.
Tim Ord after today's close:
For monitoring purposes: Sold long SPX 8/5/19 at 2844.74= loss 2.98; long 2932.05 on 8/2/19.
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