TSLA Technical Analysis

[tivoboy]

thoughts on the fade at the end there?

maybe the pumpers knew there would be a stock raise?

 

[Highway2Heel]

Upper BB is now $883.70. We might be at, or above, $900 by tomorrow.

 

[Highway2Heel]

At this rate, highly like the Upper BB is over $900 by tomorrow.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Upper BB crossed $900 today...

 

[SimonTaylor]

All of the popular indicators are predictive. They wouldn't be very useful as indicators if they weren't predictive, after all. The trick is to know when, where, why, and how to use an indicator, and the only resource that's worth any bit of your time on that front is...time. Backtest and sim trade. A lot.

From a slightly more pithy perspective, if there was a magical unicorn silver bullet indicator, nobody would tell you about it.

I find it very surprising that people claim to be able to predict the future path of a share price - it's certainly beyond the stat arb hedge funds (that I am aware of) employing the brightest brains with the cleanest and largest data sets, incredibly powerful computers and intimate knowledge of the markets.

 

[ckpl]

I find it very surprising that people claim to be able to predict the future path of a share price - it's certainly beyond the stat arb hedge funds (that I am aware of) employing the brightest brains with the cleanest and largest data sets, incredibly powerful computers and intimate knowledge of the markets.

What successful traders do, is that they try to identify a trend based on the price history. Trading in a trend is luck, identifying a trend is skill.

 

[bxr140]

I find it very surprising that people claim to be able to predict the future path of a share price...

The important thing to remember is that nobody [worth listening to] is conflating predictability with certainty. Pattern trading is simply the evaluation and implementation of statistical probability.

Of course long term investing is exactly that as well, it’s just that the evaluation tools are different.

 

[SimonTaylor]

The important thing to remember is that nobody [worth listening to] is conflating predictability with certainty. Pattern trading is simply the evaluation and implementation of statistical probability.

Of course long term investing is exactly that as well, it’s just that the evaluation tools are different.

Is there any evidence out there to suggest pattern trading gives you a better outcome than chance? I'd be surprised to see the big funds leaving cash on the table (for liquid, frequently traded shares where there is sufficient depth/volume of market for it to make it worth their while).

 

[Robertj]

Personally I can say that I have now upgraded my model 3 order to a model S and ordered a new launch worth
4 times the model S based on profits from trading the trend

what have you bought ?

 

[ggr]

Personally I can say that I have now upgraded my model 3 order to a model S and ordered a new launch worth
4 times the model S based on profits from trading the trend

what have you bought ?

New launch? I hope you're using SpaceX for the launch! What's the payload?

 

[Robertj]

New launch? I hope you're using SpaceX for the launch! What's the payload?

Sorry to say it is a 17 metre , 60 foot seagoing vessel

ohhh, and I still have my original Tesla investment plus another few thousand cash thanks to the shorts ,
who invested based on chance !

 

[jeewee3000]

I find it very surprising that people claim to be able to predict the future path of a share price - it's certainly beyond the stat arb hedge funds (that I am aware of) employing the brightest brains with the cleanest and largest data sets, incredibly powerful computers and intimate knowledge of the markets.

You are not unique in your skepticism regarding TA. It has been discussed (too) many times here.

See for example the posts below from five years ago:

So much hostility towards TA on these fourms. Can we get back to the serious discussions please? TA has valid applications, and statistical analysis combined w TA produce pretty good automated trading algorithms, so a bit less hostility would be good.

highend, I do appreciate that nuance is often missed when English is your second language. Heck, a lot of us struggle with clarity and it's our first language.

The disconnect here is not linguistic but simply skepticism about Technical Analysis. For clarity, it's not YOUR approach to TA specifically but general disregard for the methodology.

This thread is chock full of experienced investors who rely heavily on fundamental analysis of the underlying financials of the company and broader economic trends. But of course investing is forward looking, and we're taking that base data of past performance and modeling where we project the company will be in X years. There are many assumptions baked into those projections; actual performance may vary markedly. But the basis for those projections is fundamentally sound because the starting point is actual historical achievement in manufacturing production and the actual measurement of revenue, COGS, gross margin, et al. Fundamental analysis takes into account not only these micro projections but also broader economic and political trends that will affect the worldwide shift to sustainable transportation.

This fundamental analysis approach is looking for intrinsic value. It is the quest for companies whose true value is not yet recognized by the market. It's a long term commitment. The data used (monthly reports, quarterly FS) is released slowly and it works best for a long term investment horizon. It may take years for the market to recognize the true value of TSLA.

While a fundamental analysis starts with the financial statements, a technical analysis approaches a security from the charts. Frankly, that is a viewed as a flawed approach by many because it has no basis in the actual performance of the company. On the face of it. it seems an absurd proposition for someone to look at a stock price chart and think they can somehow divine where that price will move next based on the pattern of movement. The timeframe for many TA is often shorter, better suited for trading than investing.

These divergent approaches to investing/trading is oil and water to some. Some view TA as pure black magic with little more credibility than the daily horoscope. I'm afraid you will never find a welcoming audience to your TA. In. This. Thread. But "right next door" you'll find threads in which the reaction will be quite different.

Interestingly, TA is gaining more credibility. Every major brokerage has TA on staff. Many investment advisors take TA into consideration when looking for entry and exit points.

But as you have seen, you're not likely to find acceptance here in this thread. There are other threads within this sub-forum to have TA discussion. Obviously, this may not be the best thread for it.

Despite the hostility, I do hope you stick around and read/listen to what folks have to say. Many parts of the Internet are tedious and utterly devoid of intelligent discourse. Here we are blessed with talented, articulate and experienced folks who generously share their well thought out analysis. It's a genuine treat to watch and learn from others.

Seriously its the negativity like this that makes myself and other members not want to post their research. I'm not going to sit here and debate the merits of TA versus FA. I'll just say that state that a lot of the TA done by myself and other fourm members historically has been very accurate. If you are in it for the long haul (5-10, 20 years), yea it doesn't matter. Just go buy everything you can right now and go to sleep... But then there is no reason for you to even be on the Investor Discussion section of the fourms. Just go on a vacation somewhere, or sleep or whatever, and come back 10 years later with enough money to retire. Everyone here knows that Tesla will be worth an order of magnitude more in a decade.
If you are trading on the horizon of <1 year, or even <1 day or <1 hr, then TA is vital. It's also important to try and accurately find bottoms if you are trading short term options. So if you have nothing useful to contribute to the discussion or don't believe in TA, just stay away from this thread. Simple.
And people that do have useful things to contribute, please post them.

The charts show $220 is almost surely in the picture, and possibly closer to $200 or even $180 depending on macro winds. I would advice buying LEAPS at $220ish and then jumping in with medium term options around $205-$207 and short term options below $190. The X reveal should happen next month, till then we are in macro hands... Don't be surprised if we fall below $180 though if the **** really hits the fan.

Nobody is saying TA is gospel, but if used correctly there are lessons to be learned and trends to be discovered.

This thread is for constructively researching Technicals, not for questioning its existence. What you are doing is the equivalent of going to a Church on Christmas Eve, taking the stand and saying you don't believe in God and Jesus.

So please, step outside of the Church of TA. Plenty of other threads to discuss the validity of it.

 

[bxr140]

Is there any evidence out there to suggest pattern trading gives you a better outcome than chance?

Plenty, if you look.

As a single data point, in 2019 ~75% of my trades were winning (I'm actually above 90% in the past three months), my 401k balance more than doubled, and my 'real money' brokerage account almost quadrupled. I rely on patience for entries, regimented stop losses, and unemotional exits. Rarely more than 50% of the account balance(s) were in active positions, and I would go weeks and sometimes months without any positions.

I'll be the first to admit that growth is an anomaly as 2019 was pretty much shooting fish in a barrel even for a novice retail trader like myself, but I challenge anyone to argue that even with the almost-can't-lose market in 2019, 'chance' would do as well.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Upper BB went up about $14 today and currently resides at $913.33...

 

[MABMAB]

Not sure if valid

 

[winfield100]

Not sure if valid

View attachment 512493

And the significance of the possible flag is.....?

 

[bxr140]

I like the fact that it’s supported by sma20, which has been pretty solid support for a few months.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Bullish pennant, maybe...

 

[Christine69420]

And the significance of the possible flag is.....?

NB! This site may have too much marketing and too little substance:

13 Stock Chart Patterns That You Can’t Afford To Forget

 

[MABMAB]

13 Stock Chart Patterns That You Can’t Afford To Forget

I really hate links that dont work, take you to somewhere that is only marketing.
The above link seems to want to just harvest my email and social media ID.