TSLA Technical Analysis

[ev-enthusiast]

Top of current downwards channel at about $224.
We need to clear that one with volume to get some exciting upwards movement again.

I have made an interesting observation regarding this years daily charts.
We have been on a more or less steady mid term up trend since end of March this year (left).
After reaching the ATH of about $286 from early September 2014 again beginning July this year, we have seen two analyst downgrades (Deutsche and ?) close to ATH that formed a beautiful double top and ended the steady march upwards.
Since the beginning of July we have see a lot more volatility compared to the months before (right).

Steady mid term up trend since end of March	High volatility since beginning of July

I expect to see an upwards trend again that carries on till Q3 ER and close to ATH.
I am sorry to say that, regardless of the Q3 ER results, I expect the SP to break down to the $180 region again
People will play this high volatility game till drastically better financial results are available and then SP will move up above ATH.

A break of the upper boundary of the currently falling regression channel at about $$224 and a regain of 10 DMA at about $226.7 and later 200 DMA at about $231.8 are important for getting positive momentum rolling and building an upwards trend again.

TSLA currently below all DMAs:
- 10 DMA currently at $226.7
- 50 DMA currently at $243.2
- 200 DMA currently at $231.8

Media reports and first videos about SW version 7.0 including first autopilot features going viral and fear about Tesla Motors meeting Q4 2015 guidance because confimed increased demand for Model S and X (about 49% as elon Musk said recently) could help technicals and get upward momentum running again.

Thoughts?

 

[highend]

Thoughts:
all DMAs said SELL. So today TSLA sold.
Who was buying at $202-203 level might be the winner.
I have bullish targets at $305-310 then correction and then even $380 in longer term.
What now? If we break last months lows - we might go to $180 and even $150.
I would say again: who bought today for $202 and have already stop losses set at BE - might be winner

 

[maoing]

Agree. Buy protection put for highs before ER is the correct approach. Don't know how deep is the dive post ER.

 

[FluxCap]

Agree. Buy protection put for highs before ER is the correct approach. Don't know how deep is the dive post ER.

How are you positioned right now, maoing?

 

[maoing]

Long story to short. Thanks for the big lesson learnt from last year's 110 points fall. I sold out majority of my TSLA share position between 250-270. Now, I'm looking for entry point below 180 or post ER gap down. Sorry to say that, but today's nosedive isn't only for CR, some big hands are offloading heavily before the ER. It's all well known reasons:
1) Model S demand issue will be proved if TM can't deliver 50K Model S in 2015 in absence of Model X, otherwise TM just uses overflowed Model S demand to fill the Model X hole to meet guidance;
2) Model X production or design issues. If model X can be delayed by 2 years, it'll be no surprise to see another 3 or 6 months delay. I think it's not due to supply chain, it must be the production difficulty because of the Model X design complexity;

Maybe I'm over pessimistic. But don't fight against the trend, it's safer to prepare for the worst case. Btw, I'll be more than happy to call for the bottom again when things are ready probably next spring

Today's fall is totally a surprise and decisive. It points TSLA to sub-200 and even below 170-180 area where we saw strong support in last two BIG corrections. I'm planning to accumulate Nov. PUTs not only for protection but also for profitability in short term.

How are you positioned right now, maoing?

 

[FluxCap]

Long story to short. Thanks for the big lesson learnt from last year's 110 points fall. I sold out majority of my TSLA share position between 250-270. Now, I'm looking for entry point below 180 or post ER gap down. Sorry to say that, but today's nosedive isn't only for CR, some big hands are offloading heavily before the ER. It's all well known reasons:
1) Model S demand issue will be proved if TM can't deliver 50K Model S in 2015 in absence of Model X, otherwise TM just uses overflowed Model S demand to fill the Model X hole to meet guidance;
2) Model X production or design issues. If model X can be delayed by 2 years, it'll be no surprise to see another 3 or 6 months delay. I think it's not due to supply chain, it must be the production difficulty because of the Model X design complexity;

Maybe I'm over pessimistic. But don't fight against the trend, it's safer to prepare for the worst case. Btw, I'll be more than happy to call for the bottom again when things are ready probably next spring

Today's fall is totally a surprise and decisive. It points TSLA to sub-200 and even below 170-180 area where we saw strong support in last two BIG corrections. I'm planning to accumulate Nov. PUTs not only for protection but also for profitability.

Thanks for sharing. I have reduced exposure and may buy some targeted downside protection as well. I really need to see Bonnie get her X to feel comfortable.

 

[maoing]

FluxCap, even Bonnie and a few other sigX holders get car delivered. But I don't think it'll reverse the trend. Model X has long way to go to ramp up production and resolve reliability issue (I'm sure it'll have).

Thanks for sharing. I have reduced exposure and may buy some targeted downside protection as well. I really need to see Bonnie get her X to feel comfortable.

 

[FluxCap]

FluxCap, even Bonnie and a few other sigX holders get car delivered. But I don't think it'll reverse the trend. Model X has long way to go to ramp up production and resolve reliability issue (I'm sure it'll have).

I agree that more is needed, but the first sign at minimum is seeing Bonnie's car delivered. Until that happens, I remain on extra high alert.

 

[Ryo]

Thanks for sharing. I have reduced exposure and may buy some targeted downside protection as well. I really need to see Bonnie get her X to feel comfortable.

I thought you bought 'not an insignificant number of J17 leaps today', doesn't that contradict with reducing exposure? Or did you add and then reduce in a matter of hours?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SP currently exactly at the upper boundary of the downward regression channel.
Let's see if there is some upside from here tomorrow or if it breaks to the inside of the channel again later today.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SP currently exactly at the upper boundary of the downward regression channel.
Let's see if there is some upside from here tomorrow or if it breaks to the inside of the channel again later today.

Last two day's candles look a bit like DOJs.
While the first one is still below the upper boundary of the downward regression channel, the second one from yesterday is outside and above this channel.
Could get interesting today.
Any thoughs?
Any gaps to fill?

 

[FluxCap]

I thought you bought 'not an insignificant number of J17 leaps today', doesn't that contradict with reducing exposure? Or did you add and then reduce in a matter of hours?

That I did, post wife discussion.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Those here who have seen this already, you are my true brethren.

Live link (there's always hover-text)

 

[austinEV]

Hanging out right under the 200 dma. Need some trigger to break out.

 

[austinEV]

Ugh, we are down to the 20day (yesterday). The 20 day needs to hold.

Edit: Whew!

 

[Blip]

xkcd second favorite after Calvin & Hobbes...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Is there some resistance at the $216 level?
Looking at today's daily chart we touched this area twice and pulled back.

 

[austinEV]

Is there some resistance at the $216 level?
Looking at today's daily chart we touched this area twice and pulled back.

Yeah, the 20da MA is about 216.

 

[maoing]

The key takeaways I'm looking at TA charts:
1) SP under all major MAs (20, 50, 200);
2) 20 dead cross 50 and 200MA;
3) 50 dead cross 200MA, this is the major one which indicates the downwards trend will last a few more months at least and it's coincident with model X production ramp up schedule which is unlikely to see meaningful number until Q1.

Btw, it's not I'm talking down the stock. I said the similar thing in last big down turn and it's proved to be correct mostly, and I also used TA to call for the bottom. We can't predict the noise in very short term. But you have to respect the trend on TA chart.

 

[austinEV]

The key takeaways I'm looking at TA charts:
1) SP under all major MAs (20, 50, 200);
2) 20 dead cross 50 and 200MA;
3) 50 dead cross 200MA, this is the major one which indicates the downwards trend will last a few more months at least and it's coincident with model X production ramp up schedule which is unlikely to see meaningful number until Q1.

Btw, it's not I'm talking down the stock. I said the similar thing in last big down turn and it's proved to be correct mostly, and I also used TA to call for the bottom. We can't predict the noise in very short term. But you have to respect the trend on TA chart.

Fine, but if you look at the last death cross, closed about 206 (jan 9, 2015). It did go into the 190's briefly but was around 200 for much of the 'death' time. And, if you waited for the "life cross" at 250 you would have missed most of the recovery. The lesson from that crossing is that we were pretty well at the bottom, or within 10% of it. And, it was a good buying opportunity as a buy at 206 had returned 23% in 6 months (June 9, $255).

Saying that there are X launch delays is a reason to be pessimistic on the share price was great advice a month or 2 ago. Now, it is priced in. The SP is supported by good news in the medium term.