Tsunami update (of hurt)

[ShortSlaver]

Ok before I have stated not in short squeeze but now it starts. The stock is no longer trading on company fundamentals. If you look at mid day volume dropped dramatically and price stayed constant. Flat line. Covering without raising price. Very few shares shaken loose. Later only way to buy more was dramatic rise in price. No where near enough shares sold to cover. We'd evening must be looking very scary to shorts as price approaches 60. Expect more of same tomorrow perhaps accelerating as report approaches. I like tsunami analogy water approaches slowly but keeps coming

I disagree, look at what Barclay's did today:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...of+Q1+Print;+Upside+Case+is+$131/8306966.html

Quite a few analysts have changed their views of TSLA lately projecting a potential 3-figure company and it needs to be treated as a high growth, venture capital like investment right now.

I don't think you saw as much a squeeze as a reaction to this upgrade and the new hire announced as well as a general good feeling around the earnings and guidance.

 

[DonPedro]

This day certainly requires an update to the Tsunamometer:

Total short losses (based on avg. short interest of 29.48 million and 40% short interest rate):

Trading: $958 million
Interest paid: $195 million
Total losses from shorting: $1,153 million

 

[akula]

Any way to tell what open short positions remain? I am curious how many are still holding on through the call and if it significant enough to cause a climb based on their panic alone once the numbers come out. (they are betting that they will miss badly at this point to still be hanging on I'm assuming)

This day certainly requires an update to the Tsunamometer:

Total short losses (based on avg. short interest of 29.48 million and 40% short interest rate):

Trading: $958 million
Interest paid: $195 million
Total losses from shorting: $1,153 million

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

This day certainly requires an update to the Tsunamometer:

Total short losses (based on avg. short interest of 29.48 million and 40% short interest rate):

Trading: $958 million
Interest paid: $195 million
Total losses from shorting: $1,153 million

Whether we call this an official squeeze yet is debatable since we don't know they are in full stampede mode yet.

Right now I see this as a nightclub fire scenario for the shorts. They're all still a bit floaty from their contact high, but they see the pyrotechnics on stage getting a bit out of hand, and they can hear the band has stopped playing. Some are looking around confused by the silence and the different smelling smoke. But the best and smartest ones are trying to quietly make their way to the door and slip out, because they know that once the rush starts nobody gets out.

 

[DonPedro]

Any way to tell what open short positions remain?

Not until this is updated: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

 

[JRod0802]

Not until this is updated: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

It looks like around 04/30/2013 is the next settlement date for which short interest will be published. Do you know when they'll post it? Is it normally a 1-2 week delay?

 

[Curt Renz]

It looks like around 04/30/2013 is the next settlement date for which short interest will be published. Do you know when they'll post it? Is it normally a 1-2 week delay?

After the market close on Thursday: NASDAQ Short Interest Publication Schedule

 

[akula]

of course... it would be too perfect if we got this info before the call.

After the market close on Thursday: NASDAQ Short Interest Publication Schedule

I'm also being a bit cautious about the reaction to the earnings report that is due. I am starting to think that these last few runs we had are shorts covering. They can't all be that stupid and think that Wednesday will be a good day for them, can they?

 

[Curt Renz]

I am starting to think that these last few runs we had are shorts covering. They can't all be that stupid and think that Wednesday will be a good day for them, can they?

Indeed, they’ve proven to be inept strategists, yet I reckon that many remain stubborn in their opinions. Many of them are undoubtedly still hoping that Wednesday’s announcement and Thursday’s reaction will give them a chance to say “I told you so” even if it reduces only a small portion of their losses. However, I suspect they will not be allowed even that satisfaction.

 

[kenliles]

Some are looking around confused by the silence and the different smelling smoke.

That's the hashish they've all been smokin'

 

[ShortSlaver]

Indeed, they’ve proven to be inept strategists...

Quote of the year.

 

[MikeL]

Whether we call this an official squeeze yet is debatable since we don't know they are in full stampede mode yet.

Right now I see this as a nightclub fire scenario for the shorts. They're all still a bit floaty from their contact high, but they see the pyrotechnics on stage getting a bit out of hand, and they can hear the band has stopped playing. Some are looking around confused by the silence and the different smelling smoke. But the best and smartest ones are trying to quietly make their way to the door and slip out, because they know that once the rush starts nobody gets out.

Man CO, what a metaphor! Gripping & mighty scary if you find yourself in there. Many of them are in there to make a quick score, a lot of them really love the band that kept playing "everybody KNOWS you can't produce a car company from scratch, and everybody KNOWS nobody wants an EV and if you do make one, no one will buy it and we KNOW you cant compete with the legacy brands and battery tech isn't there and if we just say the words 'range anxiety' over and over until they've lost all meaning. . . " nice song, it's easy to see why so many are in the club. The beat goes on for a while longer. We will see, I think very soon, how many of the exits aren't blocked.

 

[mitch672]

Right now I see this as a nightclub fire scenario for the shorts. They're all still a bit floaty from their contact high, but they see the pyrotechnics on stage getting a bit out of hand, and they can hear the band has stopped playing. Some are looking around confused by the silence and the different smelling smoke. But the best and smartest ones are trying to quietly make their way to the door and slip out, because they know that once the rush starts nobody gets out.

I can appreciate the comparison, but being so close to the Rhode Island nightclub fire you are referring to, it's kind of in bad taste in these parts... 100 people died in that inferno: The Station nightclub fire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Robert.Boston]

Man CO, what a metaphor! Gripping & mighty scary if you find yourself in there. ... We will see, I think very soon, how many of the exits aren't blocked.

The good news is that there are plenty of exits, including my shares (and yours, perhaps). The question is, at what price will we hand over the keys?

 

[avatar]

The good news is that there are plenty of exits, including my shares (and yours, perhaps). The question is, at what price will we hand over the keys?

The toll I charge on my exit (which is quite wide) is $270.00 :tongue:

 

[avatar]

There is going to be a bloodbath when the market opens tomorrow. Shorts are going to run for the hills.

 

[clmason]

Can a short squeeze happen in the after hours? In other words, is it possible for the spike and drop to both happen between now and tomorrow morning?

 

[avatar]

With EPS of .12 TSLA is currently trading at a PE ratio of ~660. If EPS for the year is $ 0.60 and ratio stays the same the stock price goes to $300.

There is no way out. Anyone shorting is going to lose their shirt.

 

[Citizen-T]

Can a short squeeze happen in the after hours? In other words, is it possible for the spike and drop to both happen between now and tomorrow morning?

No, volume is not high enough. They need several weeks worth of volume to get out, and after hours only provides a fraction of a day's worth.

 

[DonPedro]

No, volume is not high enough. They need several weeks worth of volume to get out, and after hours only provides a fraction of a day's worth.

Well, after hours is closing on one million shares already. Not such a small fraction of a day's worth (but I generally agree with your reply).