I agree wholeheartedly. The primary motive for rolling out smart meters is to transfer electricity price variation risk from the suppliers to consumers.
At the moment, suppliers buy wholesale electricity on the basis of a 24 hour buy ahead, 30 minute tariff slot, basis, via what amount to an auction. Suppliers have no way of knowing how much they will pay for, say, the 18:00 to 18:30 slot in a weeks time. In order to set tariffs for consumers, suppliers have to estimate what the mean wholesale cost of electricity is for the whole period of the consumer tariff, add on their operating cost and profit margin and then use that to set the tariff rates. The 30 minute slot price can vary very widely, as this OFGEM wholesale chart shows:
Data portal
Once smart meters are rolled out, suppliers can switch from accepting the wholesale price risk to working on a cost-plus model, where consumers are charged the 30 minute wholesale price, plus supplier operating costs and profit. The suppliers no longer have any risk, and consumers just have to try and do what suppliers currently do, and guess ahead as to what their tariff is likely to be for any 30 minute slot during the following days. The meter has the capability to display the actual tariff that applies for any 30 minute slot period, but doesn't have a look-ahead capability, as there's no link back from the wholesale buy ahead system.
Suppliers are, quite understandably, offering attractive incentives to get people to accept smart meters. It's in the suppliers interest to have as many smart meters rolled out as possible. The question is, "will these attractive incentive tariff rates still be available once the majority have smart meters?". Frankly I doubt it. Once the suppliers have the majority of their customers on smart meters, they can just choose to remove any incentive tariff scheme they wish. There is no option to have a smart meter removed; once a customer has accepted one, then that is an irreversible decision. This means that eventually everyone with a smart meter will probably end up on variable rate 30 minute tariffs, with no way of knowing the price of any 30 minute slot more than 24 hours in advance (because the wholesale price doesn't get fixed until the end of the 24 hour buy ahead auction).
I've done the sums quite carefully for our supply, as our house is all-electric. The biggest problem I've found is the duration of any off-peak time slot. Octopus Go looks attractive on the surface, but ends up being more costly for us, as I can't get enough charge into either the car, or, more importantly, our house heating and hot water system, in just four hours. I can just about do this in seven hours, though, which makes a conventional E7 rate (in our case from Bulb) the best option at the moment. The same goes for the Agile tariff, I've been tracking the variable rate of this against our minute by minute electricity consumption, and for now Agile is more expensive (although not by a great deal).
My biggest concern remains what will happen to tariffs when we all have smart meters, and how will we be able to do simple things, like set the best periods to switch on heavy loads, if we are subject to prices that can change on the fly every 30 minutes?