Unveiling on Oct 17th

[abikepeddler]

Insurance and at-dwelling charging does make a lot of sense but it dawned on me that the "product" might be yet another upgraded super fuse that allows the P100D to attain Maximum Plaid mode. I believe that Tesla was saving this trick for the next roadster but that might be where the "unexpected by most" comes in. Tesla surprisingly introduces Maximum Plaid on the P100D allowing for 0-60 in 2.3 seconds. And if this is something that can be retrofitted to P90D's as well then, well that is where the "product" definition comes into play.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Tesla was saving this trick for the next roadster

There is no "next roadster".

 

[Green Pete]

Well, I hope it's AP2, because then my wife will let me order.

If you wait for this announcement to put down a deposit you'll never get one. Once this announcement comes out that a car will pay for itself the pre-order line will extend indefinitely until another car company has a comparable car

 

[juanmedina]

2 speed transmission?

 

[S'toon]

OK, how's this as a thought? Given the recent cancellation of the X 60D, what if they're bringing in a new cheaper variant? An X except with normal sliding doors instead of FWD, and folding seats?

 

[Ulmo]

Didn't Elon confirm a couple months back that the next thing they would be releasing was something to make charging in apartments and street parking easier? Surprised I haven't seen anyone add that to these polls for next weeks event.

The most recent HPWC product upgrade allows much more flexible and capable installation options, which reduce the total overall cost of installing multiple HPWC's and makes sharing those reduced cost installations more efficient between plugged in cars. This makes installation of HPWC's simpler, with one exception: billing for electricity, since currently there's no way to track electrical use in the HPWC's for HPWC electricity owners (as opposed to car users, who in this case would be a different set). Perhaps the new features will include electrical use tracking, for street and apartment billing purposes.

Wow! You're on to something there. That could definitely be on the list of possible product announcements. On the other hand, many say charging might be on the Oct. 28 announcement list.

 

[ggnykk]

475 total votes so far.

 

[ohmman]

OK, how's this as a thought? Given the recent cancellation of the X 60D, what if they're bringing in a new cheaper variant? An X except with normal sliding doors instead of FWD, and folding seats?

It wouldn't be an X. Elon talked about the design constraints imposed by sliding doors. The entire car would need to be retooled, as well as the factory. I'm quite confident that won't happen. I also think the X margins are pretty slim when you include the service aspect. That's why I think they dumped the 60D.

Folding seats, on the other hand.. that could be nice.

 

[Green Pete]

Anyone notice the big afterhouse buy spike on TSLA and sell in MBLY? Kinda suggests the announcement will be AP related if those two things are correlated.

 

[sammyfan711]

I think the Apple buy out theory makes the most sense - where are they getting all this money to double the mothership (Fremont factory)?

TSLA just sold a bunch of stock to raise money for Model 3 infrastructure so when I first heard of this "double mothership" plan I was sure they were going to offer a whole bunch of more stock to cover the cost.

It could be another party (Google, another car maker) but Google has a completely different "self-driving" paradigm and other car makers have completely different viewpoints on electric cars - none of them are "all in".

I think Apple purchased 49% of Tesla - if this rings true, I see it as a win-win.

Pie in the sky production acceleration plans will have a much greater chance of success with limitless AAPL coffers funding the frenzy.

TSLA should sell 1 million Model 3's per year within 5 years if this happens.

What does AAPL get? They are all of the sudden fresh and cool again after some uninspiring innovations the last year plus.

 

[HankLloydRight]

That's surely a compelling argument, but not really a "product unveiling".

If Apple does buy Tesla, at least there's hope for the UI afterall. (not that the Apple UI is so great, just that they'd have adults working on it, with testing). /rant

 

[disagree]

If you wait for this announcement to put down a deposit you'll never get one. Once this announcement comes out that a car will pay for itself the pre-order line will extend indefinitely until another car company has a comparable car

I'm not actually sure what your second sentence means (typo maybe?), but I suppose I could order one tonight and then cancel on Monday if the announcement underwhelms.

 

[S'toon]

I think the Apple buy out theory makes the most sense - where are they getting all this money to double the mothership (Fremont factory)?

TSLA just sold a bunch of stock to raise money for Model 3 infrastructure so when I first heard of this "double mothership" plan I was sure they were going to offer a whole bunch of more stock to cover the cost.

It could be another party (Google, another car maker) but Google has a completely different "self-driving" paradigm and other car makers have completely different viewpoints on electric cars - none of them are "all in".

I think Apple purchased 49% of Tesla - if this rings true, I see it as a win-win.

Pie in the sky production acceleration plans will have a much greater chance of success with limitless AAPL coffers funding the frenzy.

TSLA should sell 1 million Model 3's per year within 5 years if this happens.

What does AAPL get? They are all of the sudden fresh and cool again after some uninspiring innovations the last year plus.

I can't think of a worse nightmare.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I can't think of a worse nightmare.

You'd prefer Microsoft?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

You'd prefer Microsoft?

I would. I have two PCs running Vista that still work great. I have two iPads that are newer than the PCs and they are barely functional. Apple stuffs great when it's fairly new, but they don't support older equipment very well. Kind of like Tesla with 8.0. Come on Tesla, please don't be like Apple.

 

[Green Pete]

I'm not actually sure what your second sentence means (typo maybe?), but I suppose I could order one tonight and then cancel on Monday if the announcement underwhelms.

Elon has said that car owners can turn a feature on to turn their cars into self driving Ubers. If it is ultimately revealed and not just guessed anymore that the Model 3 will be fully hardware (and maybe software capable) of doing so at initial launch then everyone and their brother will be reserving one.

If you wait to jump on the bandwagon until that announcement is made you run the risk of being a few hundred thousand if not a million or more people in front of you in the queue. Adding years to the time before you get it delivered.

I've ordered two myself. I'm not sure I plan on every personally driving (riding) in it. I'd rather leave them on rideshare mode 24-7. Will cover the payments and insurance, anything else is fun money. And after 8 years or so I've got 2 free cars that can either work as passive income, or I've just got 2 free cars.

 

[BluestarE3]

You'd prefer Microsoft?

Neither. I'll stick with Linux.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Touché.

 

[Green Pete]

where are they getting all this money to double the mothership (Fremont factory)?

Profitable quarter, paired with launching rideshare network. If they can be profitable on manufacturing anything that comes in from starting rideshare is extra cash.

Lets say they pull in 800 bucks a month per ridehshare vehicle. (its been suggested by elon that the model 3 could pay for itself so 800 bucks a month for the owner and 800 for tesla would be a reasonable assumption, but I would guess Model S and X would be a higher fare rate as they are effectively uber select.) So this quarter they put out 25,000 cars. That would be 20,000,000 a month in revunue for one quarters production volume. So in Q4 an additional 60 million, in Q1 an additional 120 million, and when the model 3 rolls out and they make 125,000 units a quarter that's an addional 300,000,000 a quarter added to recurring revenue, so by the end of 2017 they'd be pulling in 1.140 billion in ride share revenue a quarter, 2.4 billion a quarter by the end of 2018 (9.6 billion a year). I think these are likely conservative estimates, defining factor would be launch date of rideshare. But as the hardware seems like its already being installed the bigger issue of getting units on the road is solved, then its just an OTA update and a campaign to convince Teslas owners to let people ride in their cars. No marketing or advertising budget ever needed.

Either that or they are going to sell their Autopilot Suite to other car companies to keep competition out and collect revenue from all self driving cars hitting the road rather than just tesla's.

 

[andrewket]

I'm pretty convinced it's AP2 / Tesla Vision. Hardware starting last week, the first set of features delivered via software update in 1Q17.