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Unveiling on Oct 17th

What's your best bet on what Tesla will reveal on Oct 17th?

  • Autopilot 2.0

    Votes: 233 36.4%
  • Model 3 - Part 2 (better-looking face, Head up display driving w/o wheel etc)

    Votes: 65 10.2%
  • Non-performance 100D (world's longest range EV)

    Votes: 100 15.6%
  • 65 kwh/ 80 kwh battery for Model S/X (60/75 will be removed)

    Votes: 11 1.7%
  • Model Y (small SUV)

    Votes: 72 11.3%
  • Tesla Semi

    Votes: 15 2.3%
  • Tesla Bus

    Votes: 12 1.9%
  • Tesla Pick-up truck

    Votes: 11 1.7%
  • Faster/better supercharger (200 kw charging, or charging snake)

    Votes: 52 8.1%
  • Iron Man metal suit

    Votes: 69 10.8%

  • Total voters
    640
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I am hoping for an earlier than expected S/X with 120kWh from 2170's. It's been heavily implied by JB Straubbel, +40% in battery density over the 2012 Model S.
85 * 1.4 = 119.
And with a 10% more dense cell dimensionally, plus newly developed chemistry (+10%), you're there, 119kWh.
But lest not forget that 2170's fit upright, like 18650, in the same batteryhousing. So really there is 70/65 = 108% the volume usage.
Tesla may not even need the new chemistry to make a 120kWh pack. Or, the largest pack may bump to 130kWh overnight. At the same manufacturing cost. Split the benefit with the customer, and everyone gets a cheaper better car, with Tesla making more margin on an already really high margin car.

A 100D (from 18650's) would be a minor update (really a downgrade), just a bit early if ready to ship this year.
Really I'd like them to offer a hypermiler that has a longer gear ratio on a single rear motor layout, eclipsing the range a D layout would manage, in part due to weight saving, and in part due to a 4 years optimized rear motor. Say, a Model 3 motor, in beta of sorts. No need for 300kW output, a hypermiler will be more than happy with 200kWh. It's all about reducing consumption at 50-80mph. If the D does that using mostly the smaller front motor, why use the rear at all? Stick the small one in the back, add cargo space, most would be happy. Voilá, a 360 mile car, say at the price of a currrent -90-.

Don't get me started on a 120-130kWh non-D car with updated drivetrain for slight improved consumption.
Even a PL version that utilized (if at all possible with this tech) higher output power from the battery. Even quicker 0-60, really? Unless motors are built that don't heat as quickly, 1/4 times will not improve toooo much if at all.
Musk has said 100kWh was likely top size. Perhaps higher power density would make lower weight, hence longer range. Or faster charging out of 100kWh. But probably not a 120kWh pack in the short term.
 
Musk has said 100kWh was likely top size. Perhaps higher power density would make lower weight, hence longer range. Or faster charging out of 100kWh. But probably not a 120kWh pack in the short term.
I took that as the most that people would NEED, and I would agree. Did any family man with a luxury hatchback even need 0-60mph under 6 seconds, or under 4 for that matter? Now at 2.5.
With the new cells, at 100kWh the pack would be 20+% under-utilized. It would be lighter than the current 100kWh pack, maybe 50-100kg, but a lot of range extra this would not bring. Better heat management due to a roomier layout (but, after introducing the tighter 100kWh 18650 pack?) might help in many cases, though.
And the 120kWh pack would indeed charge a good bit quicker. It would allow updated SC's to utilized all their power from the get-go, and longer into the pack filling up. Charging from 10% SOC to +300km will be mighty quick.

If you're the producer of the lowest cost/kWh cells, and you retail product that are in high demand, and sell at a premium when in bulk (100kWh over 90 and 75 and 60), being in cash flow crush and forced to dilute your stock all the time (held by founders), wouldn't you want to sell the cells by as much as you can in cars? Why make a 100kWh top model when you can make 120kWh with the same effort, selling the +20kWh at an insane margin, while totally locking your competition out of the long range game at any reasonable sort of price point?
I've seen Tesla do unwise things, and hold on to sub-optimal features that would be dead easy to make awesome, but not any truly stupid things as yet. I think withholding 120kWh would be truly stupid. What a product to trickle down... Like 100, first with PL options that are high-margin to begin with, luring customers into spending high premium on options they didn't really need. If Tesla had offered -100D and -100- from the get-go, they'd have netted lower sales in the past month from the amount of packs they were able to get to the market. I have no idea what capacity buildup will be like for 2170's, but putting them in Model S/X, topping them off at 120-130kWh seems like the best and easiest way to make money. At least until they can make three Model 3 in the time and effort of 1x S/X.
Just imagine the press impact of a 400+ mile Model S. Regular unleaded fuel cars will start losing in the range department by then. Let alone the luxury V6/V8 cars. Sports cars for sure. Will ICE brands increase their fuel tank size? :)
 
According to Elecktrek.co the announcement is for Tesla Vision (in-house MobileEye replacement).

They have a good track record for calling these things ahead of time (some well placed sources and a sense of credibility towards the journalistic standards of Mr Lambert do help here).

So yep - that's my guess (i voted AP 2.0 above).
 
Ive been to some FoxConn facilities. western media give them a bad rep. They are much nicer places to work than most Chinese factories.

I never understand this argument. Just because there are worse places to work we are to give FoxConnn a pass? That makes no sense. Western media takes an interest in FoxConn because we all walk around with our iPhones in the western world. Yes, we also frequent dollar stores, filled with junk from Chinese factories, many of which have much worse working conditions than FoxConn, but there's no one product in those stores as iconic as the iPhone.

So that's why the western media focuses on FoxConn and, in my view, they don't give FoxCon as bad rap. They tell it like it is. Just because worse examples can be found does not take away from the fact that suicide nets are needed at FoxConn and that's a point of interest, and perhaps a moral dilemma, to someone in the west with an iPhone in his pocket.

But back on topic -- I say the announcement will be AP2.0 with the potential to be fully autonomous with future software updates.

Edit: Just found this:

Tesla mystery news may be quantum Autopilot leap
 
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Elon tweet : Tesla product unveiling on the 17th (unexpected by most), followed by Tesla/SolarCity on the 28th
------------

I've been thinking more about this, and suspect that the "unexpected by most" product announcement has nothing to do with the Model 3 or AP or anything in Elon's Secret Master Plan Part Deux. I think it will be...really I have no idea.

A two-wheel addition to Tesla portfolio is probably unexpected by most (and not listed in the poll).
 
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A two-wheel addition to Tesla portfolio is probably unexpected by most (and not listed in the poll).

The new Tesla His-and-Hers* Electric Unicycles. Frame made with sustainable bamboo. These will fold** to allow storage in the frunk.

* or His-and-His*** or or Hers-and-Hers*** or Hers-and-His***. Tesla is an equal-opportunity vendor.
** Unless the German company that we hire to design the folding system fails, in which case it will only lean forwards a bit.
*** Order listed is not a reflection of Tesla's opinion of preferred relationships. The order is determined solely by treating the pair as a 2-bit binary value, assigning 1 and 0 to His and Hers respectively****, starting with the pairing in common use, adding 1 and discarding the overflow bit.
**** The assigned values do not represent Tesla assigning comparative value to sexes. It's purely a juvenile geek joke.
 
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I'm late to this thread because I initially posted this under the Elon Musk thread ....
What will Elon Musk reveal on Monday (10/17)? I have a guess but I've not exactly batted a thousand, not even close. I was thinking maybe a hatchback version of the Model 3 but then I remembered Musk saying Tesla would not have to raise any additional funds in Q4. I think Tesla/Musk may have found someone with very deep pockets (like a Google or an Apple) to buy into Tesla. Maybe not BUY Tesla outright as in take it over but become Tesla's "bank". Been wrong before on these things but we'll see Monday. Any thoughts on what else it might be?
I don't think you are helping your batting average with that one.
 
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I feel pretty good about the "Tesla Vision" reports. Unexpected by most, not worthy of an event, but interesting regardless. Seems to fit.

I agree. The unexpected by most part is the only thing that gives me doubts since it is expected, especially considering this:

Tesla lists a few demands that Mobileye apparently requested for the EyeQ3 chips to keep coming for Tesla’s current production cars:

The Tesla spokesperson said that the automaker refused to comply to the demands and that’s whenMobileye made its public announcement that it was ending its relationship with Tesla – though it continued shipping the EyeQ3 chip.

But I guess most people don't follow this stuff closely so it can be considered unexpected. If Tesla Vision is the announcement, it will be interesting to see what, if anything, he says about how Tesla will continue to support the legacy hardware, processor and software.
 
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