Update to the Supercharger network policies

[Sharkbait]

Question: If we assume that Tesla's SC fee structure is indeed related to congestion then....How is it really removing congestion.

My answer is probably that of a statistical-outlier. Therefore, it may not be significant. When I first considered buying a Tesla (the Model 3 I still have on reserve), I didn't even consider or know anything about Tesla's Supercharger network. I reserved the car believing there would be a fairly large infrastructure available to me to charge for a fee. I next learned about installing power in my home to handle the charging at a very cost-effective rate and actually free from my from solar. So destination charging would be all that I would pay for. Again, the BEV charging network would be cheaper than ICE fuel.

As a loyalty member of various hotel brands, I'm selecting and charging at Marriott and IHG branded hotels that offer free Tesla chargers. I'm currently typing this post while my MS is charging off one of two Tesla 40A connections in a garage directly below my room for free. I've got all the apps and most of the adapters to charge off other chargers (except CHAdeMO) at this point. I'm still acquiring third-party charging network authorization cards.

Coming full circle and reserving the M3, I decided that I wouldn't need free SC'ing, and I wouldn't option it even if it was $1,000/yr. With the Model S, I'm using Tesla SC'ing network not because it's free. I'm using it because it's fast! Free is a minor benefit in my mind.

So your answer If you prepay for SC'ing, it better damn well be available! I have not seen any evidence that a massive new number of Superchargers will be installed over the next year, so all hell will probably break lose, especially during peak charging times, whatever "peak" means. So I can't say Tesla's SC fee structure will remove congestion.

My penalty model does two things; 1) It frees up Supercharger spots for those using these slots as "free" parking spaces after their car is charged, and/or 2) It penalizes those that abuse the system by creating a fund to build new Superchargers. Will people be required to charge at 2 AM in the morning because charging at 2 PM is impossible? Perhaps. It wouldn't be a good move on Tesla's part. Do you want to place the brand at risk because fisticuffs are breaking out at Superchargers? I don't think so.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm thinking that it may happen elsewhere as you stated, however I haven't seen any in this forum.

I have another question for everyone though - including Sharkbait. I must preface my question with a comment first though.

Comment: Tesla has not posted congestion "at all" as the reason for this new SC fee structure.
Question: If we assume that Tesla's SC fee structure is indeed related to congestion then....How is it really removing congestion. The MS's and MX's that are grandfathered are still going to charge as they have been. This new Tesla fee based SC'ing would only limit those who haven't participated in the congestion AT ALL - like myself. So...ultimately it would seemed to be designed to possibly keep the SD's from being "more" congested than they already are. Grandfathered MS and MX owners that are locally charging will still do so. Tesla's SC fee based SC'ing program might need a few tweaks.

Let me remind myself of my earlier comment. Congestion isn't listed as a driver for this new program.

Well Tesla didn't mention much details at all about the program yet. For example, the previously leaked idle fees were not mentioned at all. What reason, other than to address congestion, would Tesla implement idle fees?

Lest we forget, Tesla talked about a congestion in their supercharger email:
"As a frequent user of local Superchargers, we ask that you decrease your local Supercharging and promptly move your Model S once charging is complete. Doing so ensures a better experience for the whole Tesla ownership community and allows Supercharger resources to be available for those that need them most."
Tesla Sends Out Supercharger Abuse Emails - Model S Owners Not Impressed

It's also in their FAQ:
"How long can I park at a Supercharger?
We ask our customers to use courtesy while charging. Once your Tesla vehicle has reached the range necessary to get to your next destination, please move your vehicle so other Tesla owners can charge."
Supercharging

 

[DiamondDave]

and now in a small or medium sized city, you and 100 or so of your fellow local Model 3 owners are using the SCs in the same way.

How do travelers passing through deal with that? How does Tesla deal with that?

Well, I'm just pointing out a possible effect of this policy, I'm not saying it's right or wrong.

But I would say that since these people are PAYING for the supercharging, if it is priced correctly, then Tesla will have the resources to build the appropriate infrastructure to ensure there is adequate infrastructure for these people and travelers.

Using your numbers, if there are 100 S, 3, and X owners that hit a supercharger say once or twice a week, that's about 20 supercharging events per day, or one to two per hour. So a supercharger location that would have eight units can be expanded to ten or twelve, paid for with the revenue from these Tesla owners who don't have a viable home charging option. It's cost neutral and Tesla sells cars to customers that would otherwise not purchase an EV.

 

[brkaus]

Well, I'm just pointing out a possible effect of this policy, I'm not saying it's right or wrong.

But I would say that since these people are PAYING for the supercharging, if it is priced correctly, then Tesla will have the resources to build the appropriate infrastructure to ensure there is adequate infrastructure for these people and travelers.

Using your numbers, if there are 100 S, 3, and X owners that hit a supercharger say once or twice a week, that's about 20 supercharging events per day, or one to two per hour. So a supercharger location that would have eight units can be expanded to ten or twelve, paid for with the revenue from these Tesla owners who don't have a viable home charging option. It's cost neutral and Tesla sells cars to customers that would otherwise not purchase an EV.

I believe Tesla attempted to price it correctly based on assumption that people would use 10% of their miles as long distance travel and they would travel 10,000-15,000 miles per year (1,000-1,500 free miles). The problem is the model goes out the window if 10% of the folks decide they are parking spots. If your assuming most would charge for 20 minutes, it doesn't take too many to park for 3 hours to blow the system out of the water. Also, if a significant number of people use it 100%, that changes the game significantly. 10% vs 100% is a huge difference.

Now, they can respond two ways. They increase the price of the "pre-payment" (the car), which impacts everyone. Or you can add a limit that matches your initial expectations.

Yes, there are technological potential solutions like geo-tracking and coming up with a set of rules, But someone is going to find a way around that. Perhaps a taxi company could rotate cars between two cities for example.

I realize some can't charge at home, but it astounds me the length that people go for free stuff (electricity or just parking). The Whole Foods up the street from me very frequently has a Tesla (the same one) sitting at it charging Or a Tesla or other EV parked there not being plugged in. The charger at Whole Foods is 30A, 208V (frequently kicks down to 22A, but lets assume 30A). Sitting at Whole Foods for an hour saves $0.74 at our local prices.

 

[Drone Flyer]

I don't like it. Elon pointed earlier. "Free Supercharging for Life" and now that's gone, for new owners.
Not much of an incentive to buy a new Tesla come January.
Much of the appeal to buying a Tesla was the free Supercharging.
I think sales will take a tumble so ludicrously that it will be insane for Tesla not to retract this.
I believe that by Easter, free Supercharging will return.

 

[brkaus]

I don't like it. Elon pointed earlier. "Free Supercharging for Life" and now that's gone, for new owners.
Not much of an incentive to buy a new Tesla come January.
Much of the appeal to buying a Tesla was the free Supercharging.
I think sales will take a tumble so ludicrously that it will be insane for Tesla not to retract this.
I believe that by Easter, free Supercharging will return.

I doubt it. Much of the appeal is the ability to do long distance travel. The free is cool, but not a deal breaker.

Plus, think if the expansion that would be possible. No longer needs to be on the fringe and they could put them every 50 miles. That would be the real end to range anxiety. Every McDonalds (or Insert any restaurant, fuel, or other chain) had two pedestals.

Yes, it would be possible now, but many people would get free in their mind and do 100% travel on SpC.

 

[Model 3]

I could be wrong on this but I do not believe Tesla will drop the price at all. They will just "reallocate" the SC dollar ingredient somewhere else. It's like Toll Bridge taxes. They are still collecting them way beyond the costs of construction and its ongoing maintenance. Hard to give up money that you are used to having.

I agree on that they will not drop the price, but on an another reason then you have.

As I see it the SuperCharger access an "Free for life (the life of the car) charging" is still included, it just got an asterisk * next to it.

Free for life*

*) As long as you do not use more then 400kWh/year from the superchargers. If you need more we will be happy to accommodate you for a small fee for all your needs above the free 400kWh/year limit

Yes, the value of the SuperCharger service is reduced for a lot of people, but that does not mean that it have to get a lower price.

Probably they had calculated something about 400kWh/year as an average supercharger usage, and is now proven wrong.

 

[bro1999]

I agree on that they will not drop the price, but on an another reason then you have.

As I see it the SuperCharger access an "Free for life (the life of the car) charging" is still included, it just got an asterisk * next to it.


Yes, the value of the SuperCharger service is reduced for a lot of people, but that does not mean that it have to get a lower price.

Probably they had calculated something about 400kWh/year as an average supercharger usage, and is now proven wrong.

That's pretty shady to say "FREE FOR LIFE" and then put an asterisk on it. T-Mobile just got fined big time for doing something similar...advertising unlimited data, then hiding the details of it not really being unlimited in the fine print.

Tesla should just say "400 kWh FREE SUPERCHARGING PER YEAR" right up front

 

[Model 3]

That's pretty shady to say "FREE FOR LIFE" and then put an asterisk on it.

And they didn't. I did, and I did it to make a point.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't like it. Elon pointed earlier. "Free Supercharging for Life" and now that's gone, for new owners.
Not much of an incentive to buy a new Tesla come January.
Much of the appeal to buying a Tesla was the free Supercharging.
I think sales will take a tumble so ludicrously that it will be insane for Tesla not to retract this.
I believe that by Easter, free Supercharging will return.

I believe it will eventually return...just not because people aren't ordering. It will return if their competition offers free charging.

Lastly and more importantly....I don't believe that people buy Teslas exclusively for the Supercharging. That's a byproduct. A perk. An option that is no longer free.
I'm not going to give up buying the fastest 0-60 timed car with the largest EV range no matter how much Supercharging costs. I'll just charge at home.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Dream on ... unlimited SC is gone and not coming back. Did you read the article linked above?
Bad SC behavior in California will continue and spread across the country as the Model 3 is introduced.
Tesla was forced to implement the new SC changes in order to protect the system utilization going forward.

That's not what they listed as a driver for their SC charging though. Tesla didn't say that they will be charging their customers for SC'ing because of congestion.
I've seen Tesla fall short in a few things such as timeliness, and limited information ( powerwall2) and such, however I've never seen them lie about anything. I'm going to take Tesla at its word on this SC fee effort until I see otherwise.

 

[stopcrazypp]

That's pretty shady to say "FREE FOR LIFE" and then put an asterisk on it. T-Mobile just got fined big time for doing something similar...advertising unlimited data, then hiding the details of it not really being unlimited in the fine print.

Tesla should just say "400 kWh FREE SUPERCHARGING PER YEAR" right up front

T-mobile got fined for saying "unlimited data", not "free data for life".
T-mobile's "Free Data for Life" plan (limited to 200 MB of free data per month) is still running and it was not fined.
Free Data for Life | T-Mobile Support

So it's perfectly fine for Tesla to say free supercharging for life, while limiting how much allowance there is.

 

[Beckler]

I'm just hoping they're not shooting themselves in the foot - and that they have some idea how much not having it will affect model 3 sales. In that price range vehicle, "free gas for life" may well be a huge draw.

 

[stopcrazypp]

That's not what they listed as a driver for their SC charging though. Tesla didn't say that they will be charging their customers for SC'ing because of congestion.
I've seen Tesla fall short in a few things such as timeliness, and limited information ( powerwall2) and such, however I've never seen them lie about anything. I'm going to take Tesla at its word on this SC fee effort until I see otherwise.

I asked this elsewhere, but what's the point of idle fees by Tesla other than to address congestion?

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm just hoping they're not shooting themselves in the foot - and that they have some idea how much not having it will affect model 3 sales. In that price range vehicle, 'free driving for life' may well be a huge draw.

I don't think it matters. Tesla couldn't have afforded offering unlimited supercharging for the Model 3 anyways, unless they charged a huge upfront payment. I believe a poll was done and there was a sizable portion of Model 3 reservation holders that would rather pay as they go than pay a huge upfront payment for supercharging that they might never use up.

 

[Garlan Garner]

That's pretty shady to say "FREE FOR LIFE" and then put an asterisk on it. T-Mobile just got fined big time for doing something similar...advertising unlimited data, then hiding the details of it not really being unlimited in the fine print.

Tesla should just say "400 kWh FREE SUPERCHARGING PER YEAR" right up front

NOW they should, however I believe the term that Tesla previously used was unlimited supercharging - and for those who received the documentation that said unlimited supercharging when they purchased their Tesla still has unlimited supercharging.

In my opinion...Tesla did this the correct way. They provided people time to purchase a MS or MX with unlimited supercharging built in and provided a date where that is no longer the case. You can't ask for more than that.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I'm just hoping they're not shooting themselves in the foot - and that they have some idea how much not having it will affect model 3 sales. In that price range vehicle, "free gas for life" may well be a huge draw.

Yes.. would indeed be a huge draw. Maybe too much of a draw. Can you imagine what the SC network would look like if 400K more cars were nursing from it?

Lastly, you mentioned the term "not having it". Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you are saying "not having it for free". ALL Tesla owners will have access to the SC network...its just that not all owners will have unlimited SC'ing right now.

 

[Beckler]

I don't think it matters. Tesla couldn't have afforded offering unlimited supercharging for the Model 3 anyways, unless they charged a huge upfront payment. I believe a poll was done and there was a sizable portion of Model 3 reservation holders that would rather pay as they go than pay a huge upfront payment for supercharging that they might never use up.

Well but do we actually know any economics behind it? I just see it as them thinking they can make more money this way, and just suggesting maybe they can the other way.

 

[stopcrazypp]

NOW they should, however I believe the term that Tesla previously used was unlimited supercharging - and for those who received the documentation that said unlimited supercharging when they purchased their Tesla still has unlimited supercharging.

In my opinion...Tesla did this the correct way. They provided people time to purchase a MS or MX with unlimited supercharging built in and provided a date where that is no longer the case. You can't ask for more than that.

I don't believe Tesla ever provided documentation promising "unlimited" supercharging. There was one software update release note that mentioned "unlimited" supercharging, but other than that I don't think Tesla used the "unlimited" term. You can try looking at your purchase contract if you don't believe me. The supercharger line only promises software and hardware activation, not unlimited charging on the network.

This is way different from cell phone carriers who plaster "unlimited" everywhere in their ads and when you buy their plans.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Well but do we actually know any economics behind it? I just see it as them thinking they can make more money this way, and just suggesting maybe they can the other way.

I looked at the economics in the posts linked at the end. The cost model Tesla set out is that the network installation costs are covered by a split from their advertising budget (for unpopular station) and cut out of gross margin (for popular stations). The ongoing costs (electricity, maintenance, lease, etc) are paid as part of deferred revenue, which was $500 per car from when there was public data (again ultimately coming from a cut out of gross margin).

From all indications, the demand model Tesla previously set is 10% of all miles traveled are supercharger miles, which works out to be a bit over a 1000 miles per year. With this allowance of 400 kWh per year (roughly 1300 miles if you assume 30kWh/100mi), this works out to the same amount. Obviously Tesla has to pay for that anyways out of gross margins (or from an additional option on the Model 3, which might still come).

The difference with the new price structure is that if demand reaches past 10% of all miles (with every indication it is beginning to do so), Tesla is not affected. Under the previous model, Tesla was tasked with predicting the lifetime demand of their cars from sale. If they guessed wrong, the supercharger network is a money loser, or they might have to slow/stop expansion plans or shut down some stations.

To see how easily demand can reach past 10%, we can look at a realistic hypothetical situation. Car trips over 100 miles in the US is about 15.9% of overall miles, so for easy math let's assume a supercharger trip (likely over 200 miles) is about 10% of miles. Then let's say around 10% of users are local users that do all their charging at a supercharger.

10% miles * 90% long distance users + 100% miles * 10% local users = 19% overall, which is way past 10%.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1428093/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1711511/