VIN... VIN... Where's My VIN...?

[Garlan Garner]

You might not be depressed but you certainly are ridiculously pessimistic. So Tesla production levels aren't going to rise ? Whatever reason that's keeping production at 1000/wk isn't going to be solved ?
You seem to have no understand of how businesses work. Things are never static. In the cast of Tesla, they're always improving.
After we discussed an S ramp up curve you go ahead and ignore how it works, just because Tesla production isn't improving like you want it to.
Wait another 8 weeks an change and the Q1 2018 delivery numbers will be out. I'm positive you will be impressed if you really think they're not even at 1000 cars/wk right now and aren't going to be at least at 2000 cars/wk at the end of quarter (likely doing an average of 1500 cars/wk over the whole quarter). In fact logic would suggest they likely are at 1100 or 1200 M3s/week already. Just because you don't have clear evidence for it, it is just the natural flow of things. And learn to ignore every bad Tesla news article on the web.
I recall the articles:
People won't buy a model S. They did.
Tesla won't be able to make it. They did.
Tesla won't be able to ramp production. They did.
Tesla won't be able to build them at a profit. Model S is a cash cow right now.
Same for Model X.
Well the Model 3 criticism was different given the yuge number of M3 reservations. The low demand argument was blown out of the water from the get go.
But every other argument is still being player.
Tesla is making Model 3s.
Tesla is ramping up production.
Tesla will achieve its production goals.
Model 3 production will be hugely profitable. They got MS/MX lines to be profitable although they didn't optimize the design for cost at first. Model 3 was designed for ease of production and better profitability in the long run.

So Garlan again, don't be such a downer.

I never made any statements about what Tesla won't do or will do. EVER. I only say....if they continue like this.......then it will mean ....that.

I'm not a downer...I'm a realist. If Tesla changes reality....then we are all good.

 

[Garlan Garner]

People say this because in no universe will production be frozen at 1K/wk for 400 weeks. They only delivered 220 Model 3s in Q3 2017. Did you believe, at the time, that production would be stuck at 18 cars per week for eternity?

There is no way I thought that they would be stuck at 18 cars per week. Elon said there would be a ramp. Elon stated the dates ( quarters ) concerning the ramp. I believed him as everyone did.

NOW

The ramp DIDN'T hit the dates Elon stated. No one made him make those statements...he volunteered them. I point it out and now I'm pessimistic and a downer? Absolutely not.

I ask the question....Why does Elon keep doing this? And I'm pessimistic and a downer? Absolutely not.


You guys that say this are certainly NOT reading all of my posts around this forum and you should before making such character assertions. When Tesla makes a date / expectation...I'm the first in line cheering. Why? Because my Tesla stocks will go up and I will make more money to complete my Model 3 purchase.

When Tesla misses expectations...the stock price goes down and at that point......its going to cost me more money out of pocket to purchase my Model 3. Its been that way from the beginning.

Even though Teslas stock is overpriced.....it has stopped its stupid super-fan climb and is settling down into reality where bad news is affecting the price. People say that its really volatile right now and that's because there is a super fan base that is competing with Teslas misses in expectations and projections.

I know...I know... They all make these predictions.

Here is one from VW as they plan on making their EV's 30 times faster than Tesla is right now - Next Year. VW plans to produce 1,500 electric cars per day at its Zwickau factory

 

[Garlan Garner]

Garlan perhaps you haven't followed Tesla since before the Model S rollout.
Tesla has pretty much accomplished everything they promissed up to about 3 years ago. The last 3 years worth of promisses are perhaps half done, the other half is underway.
I don't see Tesla as any disappointment. If you allow for Elon time dilation, you see he's always ahead of schedule (joking).
Seriously give the man some room to work with.
His track record is excellent. Let him work.
Tesla will get there. Model 3 production will break half a million units per year. You and everybody else will get your cars.
For me its easy to look at it positively because I don't even own a car, so I have no plans of getting a Tesla. I drive in a year less than many people drive in a week, with a borrowed car (but I ride my bike some 10000km/year).

Sure they accomplished everything Elon stated, however HOW is the question and that question makes a HUGE difference these days.

That's like saying that the only thing that matters is that you graduate from school but your grades don't matter. You graduate from school but with an high D.
I'm sorry but I'm one of those people who will choose a Doctor with good grades than one with poor grades.

Tesla IS a car company like GM and Toyota, however their grades do matter. Not just their accomplishments. It makes a difference if Tesla promises something and misses to investors. Stocks and valuations move based on if a company meets expectations or not.....NOT simply because they accomplished something.

That's like if I expect my kids to clean their room and they actually do....and then they want a trophy. I expected them to clean them...so everything is good. However if they clean their room and my room...then they have exceeded expectations.

If Tesla says that they are going to make 1k cars per week and then they do.....then the stock price won't go anywhere. It might be impressive to their fan base, but you just met expectations to shareholders. NOW if you end up only making 750 per week...some people might say.....WOW that's fantastic...and indeed it is, however its below expectations and the stock price will fall. Eventually they will "as you state" accomplish their goal of making a million cars ( if that's their goal ), but why get there with a grade of a D?

I want Tesla to surpass expectations, but they keep missing. Feb 7th they are going to release some more numbers.....lets see if they are "on-pace" with their expectations. I really really really really hope so.

Pictures of production Model 3s

 

[cbflip2000]

Speaking for Richmond, VA deliveries: spoke with a delivery advisor in Richmond who informed me that all original Richmond deliveries are currently being sent to Tyson’s Corner. Still not received a VIN since placing the order exactly 4 weeks ago (Jan 4).

 

[30seconds]

There is no way I thought that they would be stuck at 18 cars per week. Elon said there would be a ramp. Elon stated the dates ( quarters ) concerning the ramp. I believed him as everyone did.

NOW

The ramp DIDN'T hit the dates Elon stated. No one made him make those statements...he volunteered them. I point it out and now I'm pessimistic and a downer? Absolutely not.

I ask the question....Why does Elon keep doing this? And I'm pessimistic and a downer? Absolutely not.


You guys that say this are certainly NOT reading all of my posts around this forum and you should before making such character assertions. When Tesla makes a date / expectation...I'm the first in line cheering. Why? Because my Tesla stocks will go up and I will make more money to complete my Model 3 purchase.

When Tesla misses expectations...the stock price goes down and at that point......its going to cost me more money out of pocket to purchase my Model 3. Its been that way from the beginning.

Even though Teslas stock is overpriced.....it has stopped its stupid super-fan climb and is settling down into reality where bad news is affecting the price. People say that its really volatile right now and that's because there is a super fan base that is competing with Teslas misses in expectations and projections.

I know...I know... They all make these predictions.

Here is one from VW as they plan on making their EV's 30 times faster than Tesla is right now - Next Year. VW plans to produce 1,500 electric cars per day at its Zwickau factory

How is VW going to do that without a large enough supply of batteries?

 

[Yuri_G]

The Model 3 was the top selling US EV in January even with the production constraints. No other manufacturer is on the same planet, let alone in the same ballpark.

 

[gregincal]

The Model 3 was the top selling US EV in January even with the production constraints. No other manufacturer is on the same planet, let alone in the same ballpark.

Before somebody else brings it up, yes InsideEVs estimates, but they have a reasonably good track record and the Model 3 is comfortably ahead of the next EV (Chevy Bolt) so it's almost certainly true.

It's quite possible that it will be a really, really long time before we have a month that the Model 3 isn't in first place going forward.

 

[Garlan Garner]

How is VW going to do that without a large enough supply of batteries?

I'm not a VW expert in the least bit.

However. Lets assume that the article matches their business plan and they fall short and their stocks tumble further....you have to then they will have to ask themselves.....Was that a good thing to post out to our investors?

Personally I don't think that it will be a problem securing battery chemistry for the next 10 years, however new innovations might cause manufacturing to use less product....or an alternative product.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Before somebody else brings it up, yes InsideEVs estimates, but they have a reasonably good track record and the Model 3 is comfortably ahead of the next EV (Chevy Bolt) so it's almost certainly true.

It's quite possible that it will be a really, really long time before we have a month that the Model 3 isn't in first place going forward.

Whats your definition of first?
​

Tesla in first place? Of course.

Look at the competition.

They don't have a truly viable competitor when one considers price/range/technology. Tesla is first by default. There is no real EV competition. Nissan has sold more EV's, but not a better EV. Does that mean that Nissan is first?

Whats your definition of first?

 

[Garlan Garner]

@CSFTN man up and say something.

are you going to discuss or .....?

 

[smak]

I really feel for you Garlan, with the stock at $210 because of all the problems Tesla has had.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I really feel for you Garlan, with the stock at $210 because of all the problems Tesla has had.

that's around where I purchased it. No need to feel for me for catching it on the uptrend it had a while ago.

No need to try to be sassy. It could be destined for 700 if Tesla meets all of the expectations.

 

[Garlan Garner]

InsideEVs estimates 1185 Tesla Model 3s were delivered in January 2018

 

[sreams]

InsideEVs estimates 1185 Tesla Model 3s were delivered in January 2018

Typo in the link and in the headline (but not in the body of the article). It's 1875. Not 1185.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Typo in the link and in the headline (but not in the body of the article). It's 1875. Not 1185.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

I'm gonna call bs. End of 2017, they had 800 cars on trucks and vins went up to 6500. Guessing deliveries definitely over 2k but most likely under 3k.

 

[toothfixeralex]

Speaking for Richmond, VA deliveries: spoke with a delivery advisor in Richmond who informed me that all original Richmond deliveries are currently being sent to Tyson’s Corner. Still not received a VIN since placing the order exactly 4 weeks ago (Jan 4).

Just want to chime in with a bit of a warning. I believe you’ve been given a bit of false information.

They are re-routing the cars to Tyson’s Corner, but they aren’t matching them with Richmond orders.

Call your Inside Sales Assocaite and ask them to change your delivery location to Tyson’s. You’ll have your VIN assigned w/in 6 hours most likely after that.

If your ISA says that everything’s fine and not to worry, tell him that your friend who also reserved for Richmond received a call telling them they needed to switch and ask him to check with his supervisor.

It’s an issue, no one in Vegas seems aware until you force them to ask.

 

[GTKAZ]

Configured - 1/6/2018
VIN 60XX - 2/1/2018
Delivery (estimated/planned) - 2/6/2018

Seems like 4 week timeline is spot on!

 

[techmaven]

Just want to chime in with a bit of a warning. I believe you’ve been given a bit of false information.

They are re-routing the cars to Tyson’s Corner, but they aren’t matching them with Richmond orders.

Call your Inside Sales Assocaite and ask them to change your delivery location to Tyson’s. You’ll have your VIN assigned w/in 6 hours most likely after that.

If your ISA says that everything’s fine and not to worry, tell him that your friend who also reserved for Richmond received a call telling them they needed to switch and ask him to check with his supervisor.

It’s an issue, no one in Vegas seems aware until you force them to ask.

The Richmond location got certified this past week, so on the 19th, they will start matching VINs for delivery to Richmond. Likely means late February or early March for first such deliveries at this point.

 

[cbflip2000]

Just want to chime in with a bit of a warning. I believe you’ve been given a bit of false information.

They are re-routing the cars to Tyson’s Corner, but they aren’t matching them with Richmond orders.

Call your Inside Sales Assocaite and ask them to change your delivery location to Tyson’s. You’ll have your VIN assigned w/in 6 hours most likely after that.

If your ISA says that everything’s fine and not to worry, tell him that your friend who also reserved for Richmond received a call telling them they needed to switch and ask him to check with his supervisor.

It’s an issue, no one in Vegas seems aware until you force them to ask.

Thanks for the replies. I emailed and requested to change to the Tyson’s Corner location. I’d rather not wait for Richmond if they aren’t assigning VINs til the 19th. I was expecting a car in 4 weeks not 2 months. I already had my interest rate locked before and now I have to apply again because it’s taking longer than expected.