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Wait for 2.0 or buy now
- Thread starter Jordan0301
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- Model S
carter_seattle
Member
The base 60D lease is $817/month while the base P90D is $1436/month for a $619 difference.
I was holding off for newer hardware too, but the fact that the housing can accommodate a second camera to make it stereo, that was good enough for me to decide to not delay any further.
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On order: X90D Pearl White, tan leather, light headliner, 6 seater, 20", PUP, Sub-Zero, AP, Premium Sound, Tow hitch
Tesla Discount Referral code: Referral | Tesla Motors
______________________________________________________________________________________________
On order: X90D Pearl White, tan leather, light headliner, 6 seater, 20", PUP, Sub-Zero, AP, Premium Sound, Tow hitch
Tesla Discount Referral code: Referral | Tesla Motors
Yep I was referring to showroom model s. Advertised here in LA at $1050 a month.. Had premium package, 21 inch wheels, air suspension, pretty much anything besides ludicrous, even the winter package, range upgrade.
The model s60d which I configured with just Autopilot leather and pano roof and dual motors was over $900 a month.
There is no new inventory for the model X so no deals. Same thing for the base S.. It's MSRP or nothing.. honestly I am questioning the value of buying a base S when I can see these kind of deals on the P90d.. Especially with the resale value crashing with the 3.. I think I'll wait for the 3 regardless of ap20
I am referring to showrooms P90ds (loaded) with between 2 and 5k miles. Please see other thread. They sell them for $100k (I believe $25 - 30k) discount.
Advertised lease was $1050-$1070 a month. They had multiple in LA, SF.
I was considering it and gave up its just too much for us. I did not call to confirm the price. My suspicion is the residual value is based on MSRP, so the bang for the buck leasing is even higher than buying cash. Maybe the quote on tesla page is BS I don't know but they do shows at $1050 a month. Seattle had one at $1019 a month with 19 inch wheels.
If it were that simple, why didn't Tesla change the S to a dual housing when they refreshed the car a couple months ago?
I'm not sure if the dual housing has any significance or not.
The only really sure fire way not to barely miss something big is to wait until something fairly big happens. I'm on a lease right now, and will give very serious consideration to an early buyout / resale when the 100 kwh battery drops.
They have known that the dual camera was coming for a long time. It's more cost effective to produce the tooling to form the dual camera housing once that it is to make a single now now and dual later.
We have an early "classic" P85 and will likely wait to purchase our second Model S (to replace our ICE) until there is a larger battery pack (100?) and the AP 2.0 hardware.
It seems highly likely the Model 3 will have AP 2.0 hardware - doesn't make sense for Tesla to release the Model 3 with what will be 3+ year old hardware. It's unlikely Tesla would sell Model S or X with less capable AP hardware, so it's also likely they'll introduce the new hardware in the Model S and X sometime in the next 12 months (hopefully this year). Plus, if they follow the pattern for AP 1.0, they could put AP 2.0 into new cars, in advance of when software will be able to take advantage of the new sensors.
Owners of AP 1.0 hardware should not expect there will be a reasonable retrofit path, if any. Tesla has introduced many great hardware features in the Model S since we received our Model S in early 2013 - and few of those had retrofit options, and when they did, the price was usually too high to justify the change. At least the AP 1.0 owners should still get additional improvements through software updates, at least for a while.
It's important for Tesla to provide assurances that AP 1.0 is safe to use. When Tesla had the early Model S fire when a car drove over a trailer hitch, Tesla aggressively fixed the problem, installing additional plating underneath all cars to increase protection of the batteries. Indicating Tesla will be able to make some significant improvements with AP 1.0 should help to reduce concerns among current AP 1.0 owners - and for prospective owners in the pipeline for purchasing AP 1.0.
It seems highly likely the Model 3 will have AP 2.0 hardware - doesn't make sense for Tesla to release the Model 3 with what will be 3+ year old hardware. It's unlikely Tesla would sell Model S or X with less capable AP hardware, so it's also likely they'll introduce the new hardware in the Model S and X sometime in the next 12 months (hopefully this year). Plus, if they follow the pattern for AP 1.0, they could put AP 2.0 into new cars, in advance of when software will be able to take advantage of the new sensors.
Owners of AP 1.0 hardware should not expect there will be a reasonable retrofit path, if any. Tesla has introduced many great hardware features in the Model S since we received our Model S in early 2013 - and few of those had retrofit options, and when they did, the price was usually too high to justify the change. At least the AP 1.0 owners should still get additional improvements through software updates, at least for a while.
It's important for Tesla to provide assurances that AP 1.0 is safe to use. When Tesla had the early Model S fire when a car drove over a trailer hitch, Tesla aggressively fixed the problem, installing additional plating underneath all cars to increase protection of the batteries. Indicating Tesla will be able to make some significant improvements with AP 1.0 should help to reduce concerns among current AP 1.0 owners - and for prospective owners in the pipeline for purchasing AP 1.0.
I'm waiting for AP 2.0 (and not just two front cameras, but better blind spot detection as well). That's the feature that makes the Model S or X cost acceptable to me. If Model 3 were available, I'd take one of those with AP 1.0 while waiting for something closer to full autonomy. I'm not willing to pay 3 years of new Model S/X depreciation for a temporary lease. We do have a Model 3 reserved, so that's my wait time limit.
Model S M.D.
Ludicrous Radiologist
I highly recommend against test driving a Model S in the meantime, because you WILL want to buy one and will forget about any minor features/complaints, etc. once you press the "GO pedal"
2virgule5
Member
If you don't own a Tesla (S or X) it is hard not to see a major improvement in most area - including Autopilot V1 versus any other ICE, so why wait?
If you own a classic it can be a different story, you basically get AWD, some higher performance, and the current version of Autopilot.
Having postponed my upgrade from a 2014 S85, 1/ I'm glad I waited a bit for the refresh that was rumored 2/ Autopilot even in V1 is a game changer for my commute and highway driving. Postponing meant few months of not having the relief I'm having now.
Let's acknowledge the fact that an improved version is around the corner and could get out any time now, if only to stimulate demand to reach ambitious delivery numbers now that capacity is catching-up. We only know it will be there before model 3 is launched. And I would not hold my breath for the possibility of hardware upgrade. If the AP upgrade is significant in term of capabilities it will require way more than just a dual camera setup.
One option is: be sure to order a M3 if not done yet, buy (or lease) asap, resell when M3 is available.
If you own a classic it can be a different story, you basically get AWD, some higher performance, and the current version of Autopilot.
Having postponed my upgrade from a 2014 S85, 1/ I'm glad I waited a bit for the refresh that was rumored 2/ Autopilot even in V1 is a game changer for my commute and highway driving. Postponing meant few months of not having the relief I'm having now.
Let's acknowledge the fact that an improved version is around the corner and could get out any time now, if only to stimulate demand to reach ambitious delivery numbers now that capacity is catching-up. We only know it will be there before model 3 is launched. And I would not hold my breath for the possibility of hardware upgrade. If the AP upgrade is significant in term of capabilities it will require way more than just a dual camera setup.
One option is: be sure to order a M3 if not done yet, buy (or lease) asap, resell when M3 is available.
HookBill
Member
A futurist once said at a convention I attended years ago that new technology only exists in the minds of it's creators. Once it is on paper and moves to the assembly line, it becomes old technology. If you are waiting for the new technology, you will never get it.
I think it's best to wait for model 3.. Probably ap20, save lots of money..
The base S is too expensive IMO. $66k should at least include leather seats and autopilot. When I see that they sell loaded inventory P90Ds for a discount of $25k + I can't understand why we can't have any discount on the S60 besides a mere $1,000 referral discount. It is even more ridiculous when an inventory loaded P90D can be leased for $120 more a month than a base 60D despite the fact that the MSRP is 40 or $50k more! The S60 is a rip off as it stands.
Even the model X is pretty much the same price as the S once we add dual drive.. It's an SUV it's much bigger.. Members have also reported it to be more luxurious. It's not as sensitive as far as resale value goes with the model 3..
Once 3 hits base MS 60 will be highly impacted resale value wise. I think in 3 years time it will be half off best case scenario. Means cost of ownership of 35 - 40 grand over 3 years!! I think discounted P90Ds will sell at least for $50-55k. 0 to 60 in 3 seconds, lots of range.. The 3 will not compete with that.
As far of MZ People who drive SUVs are not very likely to switch to a sedan with limited trunk. Most of those folks are very sensitive with space.
My 2 cents as a frustrated guy who wants a tesla.
The base S is too expensive IMO. $66k should at least include leather seats and autopilot. When I see that they sell loaded inventory P90Ds for a discount of $25k + I can't understand why we can't have any discount on the S60 besides a mere $1,000 referral discount. It is even more ridiculous when an inventory loaded P90D can be leased for $120 more a month than a base 60D despite the fact that the MSRP is 40 or $50k more! The S60 is a rip off as it stands.
Even the model X is pretty much the same price as the S once we add dual drive.. It's an SUV it's much bigger.. Members have also reported it to be more luxurious. It's not as sensitive as far as resale value goes with the model 3..
Once 3 hits base MS 60 will be highly impacted resale value wise. I think in 3 years time it will be half off best case scenario. Means cost of ownership of 35 - 40 grand over 3 years!! I think discounted P90Ds will sell at least for $50-55k. 0 to 60 in 3 seconds, lots of range.. The 3 will not compete with that.
As far of MZ People who drive SUVs are not very likely to switch to a sedan with limited trunk. Most of those folks are very sensitive with space.
My 2 cents as a frustrated guy who wants a tesla.
Well done. Throw in the incremental update of what 2.0 will offer from 1.0 the difference will be negligible and not the drastic difference from earlier Model S configurations with no AP into the new AP era.
Not to mention, it isn't like the current Model S will be crapped on and no more updates coming it's way.
Can you please provide references to all of your numbers? a P90D for only $120/mo more doesn't seem quite accurate I also haven't seen too many inventory P90Ds with a discount of 25k. Sure, if you don't want a new car (aka 5-15k miles on it) then maybe but then you aren't really comparing the same thing. Additionally, the Model 3, fully loaded, with full range, is very unlikely to be less than 50k. So, it is very likely the S60 (larger car, more luxurious) will still retain it's value well. I think the only thing being canabalized will be their own new sales of the S60 (which they will probably discontinue and replace with the 3).
So to me it seems, the S60 is a big model 3, 2-3 years before you can get a model 3, for 10-15k more than a similarly apportioned model 3 would cost you 'today.' The big difference, of course, is you are talking about waiting to buy a car which you don't know the features of, you don't know what the interior (or even exterior?) will look like, and getting it in 2-3yrs (hopefully?) to buying an existing car, you will get within 60 days, built brand new, that is bigger, for 10-15k more.
Truthfully, the S60 doesn't seem like a bad deal at all!
If I couldn't afford an S60, then I wouldn't buy it. But if someone can genuinely afford an S60 they should. It is a great deal.
ALSO, don't forget if you put your model 3 deposit in now you will almost certainly not get the $7500 tax rebate. So, the S60 and possible model 3 are actually much closer in price.
Yup, an inventory car with 10k miles probably has 5k launches. I know it has a warranty, but I'm in a car for the long term and that really can't be good on it.
Lease, perhaps.
hybridbear
Active Member
My thinking was similar to this. I decided that even if AP 2.0 hardware comes out soon, AP 1.0 is still incredible. My lease on my Focus Electric is also ending in less than a month now, and I'll be left without a car once it has to go back if I don't get something else. Rather than have the expense & hassle of buying another car temporarily, I decided just to order my S 60D now and get into a Tesla ASAP. I've been wanting a Model S since 2012, and now, 4 years later, I have one on order.
Yup in your case i recommend purchasing the car now. However there are others here who are just inching to buy and have and will have a car for the next 6 months. For them i recommend to wait it out. There is little to lose but everything to gain. Be patient and all the good things will come. And you can relate because you waited for 4 yeaes for your model s.
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