Watching people making poor car choices

[run-the-joules]

Maybe they want a car they’ll get back in less than 2 months if there’s an accident.

Maybe they want features the Tesla doesn’t have.

Maybe they don’t like how they look.

 

[run-the-joules]

I do see your point but you’ve got to consider in the EV world at this price point there is competition, but not much. With so little competition it does become easier to pick an objective best car and not be so superior about it. It kinda just is the best car

There is no objectively best car. You are simply deciding to put on blinders and call what is subjectively best for you the best for everyone.

I think the model 3 with EAP/FSD is the best all-around car on the market in *any* price bracket... for me. However, it would be an incredibly bad choice for lots of people.

 

[Knightshade]

The US buys 17-18 million new cars a year. The world buys around 80 million.

Tesla only produces ~400k total cars worldwide in a year.

99.5% of the worlds new car buyers will NOT be buying a Tesla this year- even if they wanted to (and there certainly remains reasons many of them don't, despite them selling awesome cars)

And even at their most aspirational production #s with new factories, 98%+ of new car buyers won't be buying a Tesla even if they want to 2 years from now.

That's not stupidity- that's math.

Stupidity is folks insisting ICE cars will be "dead and gone" in 10 years because they don't realize that's physically impossible- there's nowhere near enough battery and EV production in existence, or even on the drawing boards, to come remotely close to that goal.

 

[pipestem]

The sense of superiority many people have on this forum is truly disappointing. That’s part of the reason why I never owned a Harley during my years of riding; I never wanted to be associated with a group of people who thought themselves better than others because of what they chose to ride. Apparently I now find myself in a similar group.

People make their own choices for their own reasons, and we don’t always agree with them. That doesn’t make their choice better or worse than ours, just different.

Wait I thought it was all the non Harley (non cruiser) riders that felt superior ? I think it's a matter of perspective. Anyway, I don't want everyone to own a Tesla, I like having the weirdo gem.

I think a lot of people are turned off by the public image of Elon, fwiw. Too much cult of personality for some people.

 

[MXWing]

But though I rarely seem to disagree with you, I think there are cases where people aren’t looking for what I’m looking for in a car. Plenty of people bought that i3, and while I can’t fathom the shape or tires or acceleration, I know from driving with my wife that not everyone appreciates driving in the same manner that I do. SOME of them must have had a decent reason. Like the example just above.

It’s just our job to make ABSOLUTELY SURE they have a good reason to pick those second-class vehicles.

That is a negative ghost rider on the i3.

It is a cockroach on wheels.
It looks like it is giving birth to another car in the back.
It will be a holy terror to dump on the secondary market.
It’s a death trap for serious collisions.
The Bolt (as in Usain Bolt) can outrun it.

I admit I state things very brashly and very hubrisy because it’s all in fun and sparks spirited conversations.

There are truly people that don’t really “get” the whole Tesla thing and I understand that.

My wife is one of those people. She’s not impressed at all about the 3P and hates it when I floor it.

Fart mode, Teslatari - zero f given
Over the air updates, FSD - zero f given

Kids on the other hand..

Volt lease is ending soon and she wanted another one. She did NOT want a Model 3.

I tried to honor the request but then when I calculated that we could get a Model 3 for $250 per month after selling it in two years and going into a Y, I knew what I had to do.

I HAD to buy the Model 3 despite her objections and force her into the choice.

I just bought it without telling her. Happy birthday babe. Enjoy the best car on the planet for 35K.

Hope you never get into a car accident with our kids but if you do, I know you have one of the safest sedans ever made.

(She likes it and begrudgingly admits its better than the Volt)

 

[srredbeard]

After we bought the Model S and were waiting for my reservation number to come up for the Model 3 we considered the Kona Electric. In fact, if it was available in the Seattle area we may have gone with it. Is it as nice as the Model 3? - No, but it would have met our needs. The older Nissan Leafs with the 107 mile range when new, and much less range later, still can meet a lot of peoples needs for a daily commuter. I have a 30 mile round trip commute, a Leaf would have worked and saved me a lot of money.

Just welcome your neighbor to the EV club.

 

[Knightshade]

I tried to honor the request but then when I calculated that we could get a Model 3 for $250 per month after selling it in two years and going into a Y, I knew what I had to do.

Can I borrow the crystal ball you have that tells you the value of a specific used car 2 years in the future in a very rapidly changing market? Wanna check on some lottery numbers...

 

[MXWing]

Can I borrow the crystal ball you have that tells you the value of a specific used car 2 years in the future in a very rapidly changing market? Wanna check on some lottery numbers...

My situation allows me additional deductions but consider $350 per month “conservative”. Obviously there is no crystal ball but how low do you REALLY expect a 3SR to tank halfway through its warranty period?

You can knock $1000 off as well if you went Black.

Obviously my numbers will not work if a 10K EV tax credit is introduced in 2021 but no one can plan for that.

Also, two years is a very short holding period. Longer you hold, the flatter the depreciation curve gets.

Bottom line - there is no better value for the money. You can tell me garbage like CarPlay is worth a Bolt over a Model 3 but that’s your money.

---

3SR with Paint Upgrade Cost: +40,579 (out the door)
California CVRP: -2,500
Federal Tax Credit: -3,750
SCE Rebate: -1,000
Total: 33,329

Expected Sale Value after 24 Months: 25,000

33,329 - 25,000 = $8,329

$8,329 / 24 = $347

$348 is my Volt Premier lease over 3 years (zero down).

 

[Knightshade]

The two major things I see clouding your guess are:

What happens with tax credits as you mention

What happens with other EVs- in 2 years we're supposedly going to have a flood of other EVs on the market, potentially cheaper, new, as well. A LOT cheaper if they're both decent AND get the full 7500 (or bigger) tax credit. Will we? dunno. Will they be good? dunno. But nobody really does.

If VW puts out a non-crap EV with comparable range, better UI features (that ain't hard), service where you can actually get decent help/treatment, for 29.9k brand new, so 19.9k after federal and CA credits... yeah I think getting 25k for a 2 year old used SR Model 3 might be tough. OTOH is Tesla has FSD working in that time, different story. You might be right, I just think your confidence level is....optimistically high...given how many ifs/maybes surround EV pricing the next 2 years.

 

[verystandard]

Maybe they want a car they’ll get back in less than 2 months if there’s an accident.

Maybe they want features the Tesla doesn’t have.

Maybe they don’t like how they look.

Absolutely

Maybe they want a car doesn't take too much money to fix

Maybe they don't want high insurance rate

Tesla is a great car if you not crashing it

 

[Electric700]

This. Plus maybe they live in an area with minimal Supercharging for road trips. CCS and Chademo locations outnumber Supercharger locations by at least 10 to 1 where we are and continue to grow much faster than Supercharger network is. An adapter would fix that but it has been awhile in coming.

We lean strongly towards the model 3 for our next purchase but the Leaf Eplus is definetly a contender.

You should go with the Model 3, which has liquid battery cooling and variable maximum charge levels close to 90%, or another EV that does. All of the Teslas do as well as the Chevrolet Bolt.

The Nissan Leaf doesn't have liquid battery cooling, and the atrocious degradation people are seeing proves the overall design is flawed (for the 30 kWh Leaf, people have seen 20% range loss in two years): https://cleantechnica.com/files/2018/09/Nissan-Leaf-battery-degradation.jpg

So for me the choice is easy, just buy a Tesla. There are plenty of CPOs available now too.

 

[MXWing]

The two major things I see clouding your guess are:

What happens with tax credits as you mention

What happens with other EVs- in 2 years we're supposedly going to have a flood of other EVs on the market, potentially cheaper, new, as well. A LOT cheaper if they're both decent AND get the full 7500 (or bigger) tax credit. Will we? dunno. Will they be good? dunno. But nobody really does.

If VW puts out a non-crap EV with comparable range, better UI features (that ain't hard), service where you can actually get decent help/treatment, for 29.9k brand new, so 19.9k after federal and CA credits... yeah I think getting 25k for a 2 year old used SR Model 3 might be tough. OTOH is Tesla has FSD working in that time, different story. You might be right, I just think your confidence level is....optimistically high...given how many ifs/maybes surround EV pricing the next 2 years.

I always appreciate your responses as you are knowledgeable and skilled debater.

With expiring Volt lease, I didn’t have two years I can wait anyway.

I have until October but it wouldn’t make sense to wait for another halving of Tesla’s credit. If the proposed $7,000 credit passes I would still likely qualify and it even strengthens Tesla’s value proposition.

Having to make a decision today, Model 3 is the winner.

As far as 2 years, I think that comes up very fast in the auto world.

Is any of the competition going to have better autonomy in 2 years? Better charging networking?

Any EV that can take away hundreds of thousands of sales from the Model 3 couldn’t be produced in those numbers.

I can wait 2 years, make a move and then we will know for sure which one of WAS right.

I am making what I believe to be the best move given all available information today.

 

[Dutchie]

People around me us how a fool we were buying our Model X two years ago, spending $180K on a car. $180K on a car, how crazy you must be!!
We bought it anyway and love it. Truth to behold, I do sometimes think about the money and what we could have done with it otherwise. Especially when we have driven in the Tesla a lot and things have been "normalized".
When we - for some reason - have to drive an ICE car again we are grown back in the real world again then we experience what other people go through
Returning to our MX from that ICE experience diminishes that thought of the money immediately for a while. Still, people around us still cannot comprehend, mainly because they have never driven one.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

You should go with the Model 3, which has liquid battery cooling and variable maximum charge levels close to 90%, or another EV that does. All of the Teslas do as well as the Chevrolet Bolt.

The Nissan Leaf doesn't have liquid battery cooling, and the atrocious degradation people are seeing proves the overall design is flawed (for the 30 kWh Leaf, people have seen 20% range loss in two years): https://cleantechnica.com/files/2018/09/Nissan-Leaf-battery-degradation.jpg

So for me the choice is easy, just buy a Tesla. There are plenty of CPOs available now too.

Thanks for your reply. It’s not that easy for us. If we buy a model 3 we also have to buy a gas car to get where we want to go. If we buy a Leaf plus we don’t have to. So it’s a no brainer until there is an adapter for CCS it Chademo.

Re the leaf battery degradation. We are in year 4 with our 30 KWH leaf with no where near 20 percent degradation. I think it has lots to do with the climate you are in.

Also the Eplus battery hasn’t been around long enough to draw conclusions.

Our leaf has been bullet proof without needing anything except washer fluid. We still lean towards the model 3 and we’ll wait awhile longer for the adapter but the Leaf SL Eplus would work. Either way we will continue to support and promote Tesla.

So if we end up buying the leaf will we then have a bunch of leaves? Lol . Sorry. Couldn’t resist.

 

[MXWing]

Maybe they want a car they’ll get back in less than 2 months if there’s an accident.

Tesla is a great car if you not crashing it

And if a semi hits you, what car would you rather be in an i3 or Model 3?

Holy *sugar* the rationalizations..

I cannot predict when and if I get hit by a semi.

I cannot also predict when and if I get a fender bender.

Given the unknowns and the rather permanentness of death, I’ll go with the Model 3 and deal with the cons if that bridge were to come.

 

[xfea]

Thank goodness for all those abundant hydrocarbons generating electrons.

Do you realize how many 6 and 7 year old slave miners in the Congo - toiling daily with their bare hands mind you -
are picking cobalt-containing heterogenite stones for Elon's batteries ?

Blood Cobalt.

Leonardo DiCaprio should make a film....

 

[verystandard]

And if a semi hits you, what car would you rather be in an i3 or Model 3?

Holy *sugar* the rationalizations..

I cannot predict when and if I get hit by a semi.

I cannot also predict when and if I get a fender bender.

Given the unknowns and the rather permanentness of death, I’ll go with the Model 3 and deal with the cons if that bridge were to come.

I agree with your points as Tesla Model 3 got perfect 5-star safety rating in every category from NHTSA, which is amazing, excellent and that is the reason I'm buying it too.

However if Tesla Model 3/CPO Model S's price tag, maintenance, insurance rate and cost of repair is more than you can afford (never buy anything that is more than you can afford, this is my golden rule), perhaps a cheaper alternative would works better for you (2020 Toyota Corolla got very affordable price tag, reasonable maintenance fees and overhead cost, 5 star overall front star rating, 5 star overall side star rating, 4 stars rollover star rating. I would say this is as close you can get as possible when compare the safety with Tesla Model 3, but with a fraction of a price)

 

[ammulder]

That is a negative ghost rider on the i3.

It is a cockroach on wheels.
It looks like it is giving birth to another car in the back.
It will be a holy terror to dump on the secondary market.
It’s a death trap for serious collisions.
The Bolt (as in Usain Bolt) can outrun it.

LOL!! I bow to your superior rhetoric. Bravo!

 

[pipestem]

Thanks for your reply. It’s not that easy for us. If we buy a model 3 we also have to buy a gas car to get where we want to go. If we buy a Leaf plus we don’t have to. So it’s a no brainer until there is an adapter for CCS it Chademo.

Re the leaf battery degradation. We are in year 4 with our 30 KWH leaf with no where near 20 percent degradation. I think it has lots to do with the climate you are in.

Also the Eplus battery hasn’t been around long enough to draw conclusions.

Our leaf has been bullet proof without needing anything except washer fluid. We still lean towards the model 3 and we’ll wait awhile longer for the adapter but the Leaf SL Eplus would work. Either way we will continue to support and promote Tesla.

So if we end up buying the leaf will we then have a bunch of leaves? Lol . Sorry. Couldn’t resist.

Ok, you are on a Tesla board. Get a nice used S85 with AP 1 and a chademo adapter. Where there's a will ....

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Ok, you are on a Tesla board. Get a nice used S85 with AP 1 and a chademo adapter. Where there's a will ....

Yah I suppose. We thought about it at least once. We should probably reconsider it as both of us loved our test drives in the S. Don’t laugh but one of the reasons we leaned away from an S was the size of the car and our garage. It would fit but would be really tight. Frankly I would probably just park it outside in my leafs spot and put the leaf in the garage. We recently saw a nice 2017 on autotrader in Montreal. Right around a 100 grand (Canadian). About 25000 more than what we want to spend though.

Anyway. We have some time, I still think there is a chance that they’ll develop an adapter before we buy. Then we would get a new model 3 LR RWD white on white, sport rims, FSD.

Re the Tesla board. Even if we end up with another leaf we would hang out here a bit as it is a fairly well mannered board with lots of good info. And sooner or later we’ll probably own a Tesla so nice to stay informed.