Waymo

[diplomat33]

I'm really hoping Waymo doesn't end up like a lot of Google's other "moonshot" ideas.

Me too. But even if Waymo fails at robotaxis, surely, all that AV tech could be applied to something else? After all, Waymo does have good self-driving that could be applied to driver assist or semi autonomous driving or something. I can't believe they would just toss all the hardware and software away. So I doubt Waymo would just shut down completely.

IMO Google Glass might be a good corollary to Waymo. A very developed product that, at least to me, was on the verge of being if not revolutionary. But killed by public perception (if Cruise has anything to say about it) and a lack of "want" to continue the project (currently not convinced on this one, but the x3 layoffs this year make me wonder).

I agree that Google Glass could have been revolutionary. It's weird because we see smart glasses in scifi and it should be a great idea. It makes a lot of sense. After all, people wear glasses. Why not let people access the same info on their phones but directly on their glasses. You could check email, watch videos, communicate with people directly from your glasses instead of having to pull your phone out. And yet, the execution did not work. Perhaps Google Glass was just ahead of its time. But it had two major flaws that negatively affected public perception. People did not want to walk around with it on their face in public and there were privacy issues since it had a camera that could film others without their consent. These issues caused a lack of demand. And that lack of demand coupled with the high price tag, made the Google Glass not viable as a commercial product. That is why it got shut down. I am not sure if Waymo has the same issues. Unlike with Google Glass, Waymo reports very high demand for their robotaxis. They had 100,000 people waiting on the wait list to ride in a Waymo in SF. And while the robotaxis are expensive, rides are not. So unlike the Google Glass, consumers don't have a high price tag to buy a ride in a Waymo robotaxi. The high demand and low price per ride makes Waymo more viable as a commercial product than Google Glass. Waymo does face other challenges though that Google Glass did not. Waymo's challenges are more about scaling the product to more places. Also, I think it is lot easier to toss away a product like Google Glass which is essentially a fancy pair of glasses with a computer than it is to toss away work on a challenge like autonomous driving. Google Glass did not require billions in basically inventing a new tech. It was just trying to apply existing tech in a new way.

 

[flutas]

I agree that Google Glass could have been revolutionary. It's weird because we see smart glasses in scifi and it should be a great idea. It makes a lot of sense. After all, people wear glasses. Why not let people access the same info on their phones but directly on their glasses. You could check email, watch videos, communicate with people directly from your glasses instead of having to pull your phone out. And yet, the execution did not work. Perhaps Google Glass was just ahead of its time. But it had two major flaws that negatively affected public perception. People did not want to walk around with it on their face in public and there were privacy issues since it had a camera that could film others without their consent. These issues caused a lack of demand. And that lack of demand coupled with the high price tag, made the Google Glass not viable as a commercial product. That is why it got shut down. I am not sure if Waymo has the same issues. Unlike with Google Glass, Waymo reports very high demand for their robotaxis. They had 100,000 people waiting on the wait list to ride in a Waymo in SF. And while the robotaxis are expensive, rides are not. So unlike the Google Glass, consumers don't have a high price tag to buy a ride in a Waymo robotaxi. The high demand and low price per ride makes Waymo more viable as a commercial product than Google Glass. Waymo does face other challenges though that Google Glass did not. Waymo's challenges are more about scaling the product to more places. Also, I think it is lot easier to toss away a product like Google Glass which is essentially a fancy pair of glasses with a computer than it is to toss away work on a challenge like autonomous driving. Google Glass did not require billions in basically inventing a new tech. It was just trying to apply existing tech in a new way.

My main point was about potential public perception, not demand.

Google Glass was perceived to be amazing when announced, and everyone wanted one. Then the public perception shifted rapidly to "glassholes" and privacy issues and it was discontinued fairly quick.

I'm worried the same could happen to AVs if incidents occur too frequently. Uber killing a person, Waymo's semi being ran off the road and the operator never disengaging the AV, Waymo filling SF neighborhoods with cars doing nothing, Cruise's repeated stalls, the recent Cruise hit and run accident (not their fault, but perception is affected), the video of a Cruise driving extremely close to a pedestrian in a crosswalk, the video of a Cruise rapidly swerving and veering towards an occupied sidewalk...

We have a lot of incidents (mostly Cruise) that right now aren't very big, but it could be fairly easy to have a big issue happen that causes everyone to be weary or hostile overnight. We already had people running around placing cones on cars to disable them, though that could be argued as more to do with "vandalism" than contempt to AVs.

 

[diplomat33]

My main point was about potential public perception, not demand.

Google Glass was perceived to be amazing when announced, and everyone wanted one. Then the public perception shifted rapidly to "glassholes" and privacy issues and it was discontinued fairly quick.

I'm worried the same could happen to AVs if incidents occur too frequently. Uber killing a person, Waymo's semi being ran off the road and the operator never disengaging the AV, Waymo filling SF neighborhoods with cars doing nothing, Cruise's repeated stalls, the recent Cruise hit and run accident (not their fault, but perception is affected), the video of a Cruise driving extremely close to a pedestrian in a crosswalk, the video of a Cruise rapidly swerving and veering towards an occupied sidewalk...

We have a lot of incidents (mostly Cruise) that right now aren't very big, but it could be fairly easy to have a big issue happen that causes everyone to be weary or hostile overnight. We already had people running around placing cones on cars to disable them, though that could be argued as more to do with "vandalism" than contempt to AVs.

Oh yes, I agree with that concern. That is why I think a more conservative approach to scaling is best. We are all impatient for driverless cars but I think Cruise is showing us that if we rush AVs before they are reliable, it will only backfire and then we will have to wait even longer to get the driverless cars that we wanted. So the fast approach is really slower in the long term.

 

[rbt123]

I'm really hoping Waymo doesn't end up like a lot of Google's other "moonshot" ideas.

IMO Google Glass might be a good corollary to Waymo. A very developed product that, at least to me, was on the verge of being if not revolutionary. But killed by public perception (if Cruise has anything to say about it) and a lack of "want" to continue the project (currently not convinced on this one, but the x3 layoffs this year make me wonder).

Google Glass is dead at Google but the tech is still around and being developed. Swim goggles (FORM and FINIS) are the best use-case I've seen thus far. Watches get in the way and you need to pause to read the information.

Even if Waymo bails, Chinese competitors like Baidu will likely have very large service area by 2030; already operating in 5 cities and laws are being adjusted to allow for national deployments. If it profits in China, it'll profit across Asia and eventually Europe and the Americas will get onboard just to keep up.

 

[ThomasD]

It took 14 years for UBER to be profitable. Uber only had to pay the Driver. The Driver is responsible for insurance, Maintenance/cleaning and repairs. Waymo is responsible for everything that occurs with the car. I'm curious to see the cost per mile of a Waymo vehicle vs the revenue the car makes.

 

[diplomat33]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715062813851349425

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715062819085770806

 

[diplomat33]

A Waymo ride from North Beach to the Coit Tower parking lot, with plenty of oddly arranged intersections along the way. Taken on October 13, 2023.

0:00 Start of ride
0:51 Driving on cable car tracks
1:28 Possible cable car track visualization bug
3:12 Sharp left turn
3:40 Slow to proceed at green light
4:51 Slow and swerve with cyclist and yellow light
5:36 Cable car perception
5:52 Sharp left turn
10:48 Slow to proceed in cursed intersection
12:00 Sharp right turn
13:13 Sharp left turn
13:54 Almost getting stuck in the intersection
15:12 Passing double parked vehicle
15:31 Creeping forward with pedestrians in crosswalk
15:55 Nudge for pedestrian in street with oncoming car
16:21 Windy road to Coit Tower
17:22 Pull over
17:41 Coit Tower parking lot loop

 

[diplomat33]

 

[EVNow]

If it profits in China, it'll profit across Asia and eventually Europe and the Americas will get onboard just to keep up.

Not that simple. China's Asian neighbors don't like China.

 

[diplomat33]

USA Today has an article on how people in Phoenix can now hail a driverless Waymo from the Uber app:

Starting Thursday, Uber riders in the Phoenix area who request an UberX, Uber Green, Uber Comfort or Uber Comfort Electric may be matched with a Waymo self-driving car.

Riders can increase their odds of being matched with a driverless Waymo car by opting in via the Uber app’s Ride Preferences section under settings.

Taking an Uber in Phoenix? Your next ride may not have a driver

While Uber is offering rides in self-driving cars in other markets, this launch with Waymo is the first without a human driver behind the wheel.

www.usatoday.com

We have known that Uber and Waymo were partnering up for awhile now but it is nice to see it actually happening. I do think a partnership between Uber and Waymo makes perfect sense since Waymo can provide the tech and Uber can provide the network and customers. I wonder if that will be Waymo's scaling approach going forward: deploy the Waymo Driver in a new city, test, validate, and when it is passes the Waymo safety benchmarks, launch on the Uber app in that city.

 

[rlsd]

Who will load and unload my heavy bags into the car when going to, from the airport? Will Uber ask me for tip?

 

[diplomat33]

Who will load and unload my heavy bags into the car when going to, from the airport?

Well, there will be no Uber driver to do it so you will probably have to do that yourself, unless the airport has bag attendants who will do it for you.

Will Uber ask me for tip?

I am not sure. I don't think the Waymo app asks for a tip or it is optional. But the Uber app might. I know one of the things that people say they like about driverless rides is that you don't have to tip.

 

[kabin]

USA Today has an article on how people in Phoenix can now hail a driverless Waymo from the Uber app:

Taking an Uber in Phoenix? Your next ride may not have a driver

While Uber is offering rides in self-driving cars in other markets, this launch with Waymo is the first without a human driver behind the wheel.

www.usatoday.com

We have known that Uber and Waymo were partnering up for awhile now but it is nice to see it actually happening. I do think a partnership between Uber and Waymo makes perfect sense since Waymo can provide the tech and Uber can provide the network and customers. I wonder if that will be Waymo's scaling approach going forward: deploy the Waymo Driver in a new city, test, validate, and when it is passes the Waymo safety benchmarks, launch on the Uber app in that city.

I doubt Uber is doing it for free since it potentially takes business away from their driver base. But the service sector loves added fees. Uber probably applies a middle-man mark-up fee for 'convenience.' No tip required.

 

[Bitdepth]

Some interesting driving maneuvers and choices in this video that i think warrants a watch. And like always shows whenever the car calls remote assist. In this case it appears they just told it to do a 3 point turn. Waymo has gotten really assertive when driving.

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo has gotten really assertive when driving.

I think it bodes well for the confidence of the Waymo Driver since Waymo would not let it be so assertive if the system was not confident it was making the correct and safe decision. Waymo Driver used to be much more cautious when the perception/prediction/planning were less sophisticated.

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo is going to Buffalo, NY to do winter testing.

In the new blog post, Waymo details their testing process:

Travel First, we bring a small fleet of vehicles equipped with the Waymo Driver to a new city, and sometimes, we return to cities we've visited before. Testing fleets are limited and closed to the public. Initially, human specialists drive these vehicles manually to help provide the Waymo Driver context of where it's operating.

Drive Once the Waymo Driver understands the lay of the land, the vehicles can begin driving autonomously. During these trips, human specialists provide feedback to our engineering teams on the driving experience and flag unique nuances that might come with operating in new areas. Simultaneously, our engineering team can evaluate the Waymo Driver's performance in a virtual replica of the new location to measure how it generalizes.

Apply Our teams use the new learnings and insights gathered during this time to continue refining the Waymo Driver's capabilities and service experience. Driving in dozens of different cities over the years has helped inform the design and capabilities of our sensing technology, improve the Waymo Driver's performance in the cities we already operate, and safely bring our technology to new places. With this applied knowledge, we will progress even faster with each new place we bring the Waymo Driver, and eventually have fewer novel situations that we'll have to teach the Driver to navigate. For example, our rain testing in Miami was instrumental in enabling us to serve riders fully autonomously in wet and rainy conditions in California and Phoenix.

Source: Waypoint - The official Waymo blog: Road trip! How our cross-country testing helps advance the Waymo Driver

 

[ThomasD]

 

[jabloomf1230]

View attachment 988537

There's actually a Waymo vehicle under the snow to the right of the sign.

 

[ThomasD]

Are the Sensors heated to melt the Snow and Ice accumulation?

 

[spacecoin]

Are the Sensors heated to melt the Snow and Ice accumulation?

Probably, but not sure. They have cleaning mechanisms at least.
Didn’t Waymo use to do testing in Buffalo for winter a few years back?

Exciting news nontheless.