What if FSD doesn't materialize?

[Knightshade]

FSD beta has to be released wider.

What folks keep calling FSD beta is just navigating on city streets/local roads (and itself is explicitly L2 only)

It doesn't change the highway code, which is what that user is asking about why they can't make it L3, at all right now.


As to their question, the inability to not hit stationary vehicles partly in your lane on the highway would be the biggest reason I can think of right now they can't release it as L3.

 

[raptor5244]

Another issue with FSD is that some people may be annoyed with how it drives. You know what I mean, you already have a driving style. Like how hard you brake when coming to a light or approaching a turn. We know how much to react and not over react when someone pulls out in front of you. We know to increase our distance and slow down in the rain and snow. If the car doesn’t drive similar to how you drive then we tend to get annoyed and just do it ourselves. That said, it would be cool if the software could learn your driving style and tend to mimic as close as possible.

When I use AP on the highway and I come up to a traffic jam it brakes way too late and too hard for me. I mean I see what is up there and I have to babysit a wait to see if the car will react in time. Most of the time it has to brake so hard it is applying the friction brakes. I just don’t think FSD becomes a reality until it drives as good or better than we already do. Good enough may be acceptable to some but if it accelerates too slow or too fast or doesn’t keep pace with the cars ahead it is just to annoying. It is all the little things, for example when a biker is in the lane next to you, I automatically try to change lanes and give them some space or I will hug the left side of the lane as much so I can give the biker a tad more room. When I see a pickup truck with its bed dropping stuff I change lanes or make and effort to pass it. I wonder if FSD will ever be able to achieve this level of detail.

 

[Dan D.]

Another issue with FSD is that some people may be annoyed with how it drives. You know what I mean, you already have a driving style. Like how hard you brake when coming to a light or approaching a turn. We know how much to react and not over react when someone pulls out in front of you. We know to increase our distance and slow down in the rain and snow. If the car doesn’t drive similar to how you drive then we tend to get annoyed and just do it ourselves. That said, it would be cool if the software could learn your driving style and tend to mimic as close as possible.

When I use AP on the highway and I come up to a traffic jam it brakes way too late and too hard for me. I mean I see what is up there and I have to babysit a wait to see if the car will react in time. Most of the time it has to brake so hard it is applying the friction brakes. I just don’t think FSD becomes a reality until it drives as good or better than we already do. Good enough may be acceptable to some but if it accelerates too slow or too fast or doesn’t keep pace with the cars ahead it is just to annoying. It is all the little things, for example when a biker is in the lane next to you, I automatically try to change lanes and give them some space or I will hug the left side of the lane as much so I can give the biker a tad more room. When I see a pickup truck with its bed dropping stuff I change lanes or make and effort to pass it. I wonder if FSD will ever be able to achieve this level of detail.

Tesla does have different driving levels already, the Mad Max stuff. Other brands have their Sport, Economy modes, etc. Tesla has lots of sliders for FSD Beta that we've seen. You may want the fully customizable FSD. Ask Elon.

 

[BooMan]

Tesla does have different driving levels already, the Mad Max stuff. Other brands have their Sport, Economy modes, etc. Tesla has lots of sliders for FSD Beta that we've seen. You may want the fully customizable FSD. Ask Elon.

No offense, but non of the current driving level modes address the valid issues that previous poster highlighted. For example, the breaking with dense traffic ahead on the Highway issue is a BIG one for me. As a result I rarely use (E)AP and only consider it on essentially empty streaches of HWY. It drives like a drunken 12 year old in dense traffic and I wold not receommend it (actually its great when its during bumper to bumper traffic in a crawl). In general it is worse than any driver I have ever been in a vehicle in. Maybe its because I'm still rocking HW 2.5 but I have not heard of better from those with later HW3 cars.

 

[Dan D.]

No offense, but non of the current driving level modes address the valid issues that previous poster highlighted.

FSD sliders do, or might (greentheonly found some in the code). My point was that Tesla provides alternate driving aggression now, if you ask nicely perhaps Elon might allow you to customize the FSD experience in the future. Could be that the code trickles down to non-FSD too?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1336467014727110656

https://twitter.com/x/status/1336467104640458753

 

[wdolson]

Regulations exist for many hazardous processes though, wouldn't you agree? If they have been written with due care and diligence, and approved by good practice that is generally acceptable. There is risk in everything, we know that. Anyone following the regulations is also protected so long as they have also exercised due care and diligence. The regulation board or the companies should not be worried unless they are negligent.

That's also why liability insurance exists, to cover you for mistakes. Of course, as you point out, death often gets people angrier than just having your poorly designed toaster catch fire.

Wherever possible hazardous processes are limited to expose as few people as possible and isolated. And everything possible is done to mitigate the harm.

The news coverage an event gets also affects how much an issue is going to get regulatory attention. Air travel has been proven to have the lowest death rate per mile traveled, but every airliner crash gets worldwide attention and it is one of the most heavily regulated travel industries. Every Tesla accident got worldwide coverage for many years too, which affected how people thought about Tesla and electric car safety despite the evidence clearly showing that electric cars catch fire much less often than gasoline cars.

What sort of fictional stories people have been exposed to also affects both public perception and caution among regulators. For more than 60 years we have had many stories about rogue AIs killing people. Even though AIs do not have the capability to form intent, or any kind of real self awareness and may never have it, the public is very fearful about AIs with the capability to kill people and automated cars are one of the first AIs with that capability that may be out in public.

AI cars cannot decide to deliberately kill people, but we are dealing with people who doubt the world is round too.

Which government agency (in the US) would be responsible for approving something like this? How does the application process work?

There are many agencies at different levels. It's also possible that Congress at the federal level will insist on getting in the middle of regulating self driving cars. If they don't some state legislatures might get involved.

Considering the public focus on this technology I expect some legislatures will get involved.

 

[Jmolloy3]

I just clicked the upgrade from EAP to FSD on my app. 2018 HW2.5 P3-

I guess at some point I will get a email or txt to swap HW 2.5 to HW3?

 

[Knightshade]

I just clicked the upgrade from EAP to FSD on my app. 2018 HW2.5 P3-

I guess at some point I will get a email or txt to swap HW 2.5 to HW3?

Schedule service in the app for it. Do not count on Tesla to reach out to you. They might, they might not.

 

[Jmolloy3]

Schedule service in the app for it. Do not count on Tesla to reach out to you. They might, they might not.

Agree. Mobile tech on May 3...

 

[DJVoorhees]

https://twitter.com/x/status/686279251293777920

Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops his prediction of full autonomous driving from 3 years to just 2

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was at Stanford’s FutureFest recently and he described how he evaluates the progress and a timeline...

electrek.co

Elon Musk clarifies Tesla's plan for level 5 fully autonomous driving: 2 years away from sleeping in the car

Ever since Tesla released its second generation Autopilot hardware and started offering an option called “full self-driving capability”, there’s been...

electrek.co

Tesla Level 5: Autopilot

Recently Elon Musk publicly stated that it will have Level 5 autonomy by the year 2020. He went further to state that all Tesla’s will be…

towardsdatascience.com

Elon Musk brags that Tesla is "very close" to full, level 5 self driving

"I think there are no fundamental challenges remaining for level 5 autonomy."

futurism.com

FSD is just the latest iteration of level 5 autonomy from Elon/Tesla. I realize they went down that path initially with Mobileye and started off by offering Autopilot. But Elon has made many predictions about level 5 / full autonomous coming from Tesla - as far back as 2015. Now, to be fair, Google, Uber, and others have made claims and missed those timelines as well. So it's not like Elon and Tesla are out on an island promising things within certain timeframes that just don't materialize.

But Elon did throw a bit of a marker down with his "for sure" comments about >1m robotaxis by end of 2020. Even if you give them some pandemic leeway with that timeline, they still missed. I guess at this point, the question is do you believe Tesla is close to level 5 (despite nearly every other auto analyst disagreeing) or is this just another case of crying wolf.

Elon says these things to keep Tesla in the news and keep them fresh, I feel bad for the folks that spent 5, 7 even 10k for what amounts to summon and self parking. Im surprised the SEC hasnt cranked down on him for these comments.

 

[raptor5244]

Elon says these things to keep Tesla in the news and keep them fresh, I feel bad for the folks that spent 5, 7 even 10k for what amounts to summon and self parking. Im surprised the SEC hasnt cranked down on him for these comments.

I am still shocked that they keep raising the price of FSD. I was certain it would go in the other direction. I figured as they sold more and more vehicles and eventually move it to subscription that it would be a reasonable cost to keep funding the effort. $10k is just crazy talk but hey, I paid like $8k more for the Performance vs. the LR AWD model which may be a waste of money to a lot of folks, so whatever floats your boat. Some like playing around with Summon mode and others like me prefer the faster acceleration and big red brake calipers.

 

[Knightshade]

Back in 2016 when the product launched is was between 8-10k depending if you bought it with the vehicle or later.

That it's 10k now, 5 years later, isn't really a raised price other than you get a little bit of it for nothing (basic AP) and you otherwise pay the post-purchase 2016 price but get MORE features than you did in 2016 for the money.

 

[Jmolloy3]

The FSD beta vids are pretty impressive to me. Not perfect by any means but still pretty awesome. When it's finally rolled out to the masses, I suspect it will be somewhat nurtured for a while and constantly nag. But I still want it, because I want it. Don't care if it's not perfect.

 

[FloridaJohn]

There are many agencies at different levels. It's also possible that Congress at the federal level will insist on getting in the middle of regulating self driving cars. If they don't some state legislatures might get involved.

Considering the public focus on this technology I expect some legislatures will get involved.

Could you name some of the many agencies?

I don't doubt that congress will eventually get involved, but as of right now, they have not.

There have been some state legislatures that have already passed some laws regarding autonomous vehicles, but most of those were to specifically allow autonomous vehicles on the roads.

 

[thefrog1394]

Another issue with FSD is that some people may be annoyed with how it drives. You know what I mean, you already have a driving style. Like how hard you brake when coming to a light or approaching a turn. We know how much to react and not over react when someone pulls out in front of you. We know to increase our distance and slow down in the rain and snow. If the car doesn’t drive similar to how you drive then we tend to get annoyed and just do it ourselves. That said, it would be cool if the software could learn your driving style and tend to mimic as close as possible.

When I use AP on the highway and I come up to a traffic jam it brakes way too late and too hard for me. I mean I see what is up there and I have to babysit a wait to see if the car will react in time. Most of the time it has to brake so hard it is applying the friction brakes. I just don’t think FSD becomes a reality until it drives as good or better than we already do. Good enough may be acceptable to some but if it accelerates too slow or too fast or doesn’t keep pace with the cars ahead it is just to annoying. It is all the little things, for example when a biker is in the lane next to you, I automatically try to change lanes and give them some space or I will hug the left side of the lane as much so I can give the biker a tad more room. When I see a pickup truck with its bed dropping stuff I change lanes or make and effort to pass it. I wonder if FSD will ever be able to achieve this level of detail.

As a new Model 3 owner the late breaking was a huge surprise to me. I'm not a timid driver by any means but it brakes late enough to make AP more stressful not less in traffic. Maybe I'll get used to it, but I worry that would mean becoming complacent and putting too much trust in this "beta" software.

Unlikely.

First, Tesla needs to demonstrate that its system can avoid collisions reliably just the same way as Waymo can.

Second, in a handover/takeover from the machine driving to the human, L3 system needs to give advance notice to human such as in Audi A8 Traffic Jam Pilot, it would issue a handover/takeover warning to human in 10 seconds so the human can stop watching the videos or reading and start to take over.

The 10-second handover/takeover warning is possible because L3 is conditional automation. It only works in a specified condition. When it detects there's a condition that will no longer be met, it would turn the car back to a human.

For example, Audi A8 Traffic Jam Pilot only works up to 37.3 MPH. When it detects that the flow of traffic starts to pick up from stop-and-go to 5MPH, 10MPH and creeping toward 37.3 MPH, it can have enough time for 10 seconds to allow humans to take over.

I've used Tesla Autopilot/EAP/FSD since 2017 and the system can abruptly hand it back to the driver with no advance notice.

Currently, when the sun is low on the horizon such as driving to work or driving home, the system would be blinded and it would suddenly nonfunctional until there's no more glare to the cameras. It's repeatable. It happens day after day for the past 4 years.

So, how Tesla will accommodate a 10-second warning for a handover/takeover in L3?

Will it have a redundancy system of Radar and Lidar when the cameras are disabled by the glare of the sun so the system can still accommodate a 10-second warning for handover/takeover in L3?

Reliability, Redundancy, and Advance warning for handover/takeover are huge puzzles to be solved with Tesla's present configuration.

For Tesla FSD, 5 years have passed since it was first sold in 2016, I doubt that puzzle will be solved within the next 5 years.

For those experiencing sun glare issues, is "driving visualization temporarily degraded" along with disabled auto headlights/high beams and rain sensor typical? I was shocked to have autopilot freak out and hand driving back to me instantly along with the above during my first longer trip with my Model 3. The sun was low in the sky, although it was far from the worst sun glare I've experienced as a human driver. Some folks seem to have taken their car in for service over this issue and gotten things like wiring harnesses or cameras replaced. I only have the 10k used warranty remaining on my car, so I want to make sure I preemptively get anything like this addressed.

 

[wdolson]

Could you name some of the many agencies?

I don't doubt that congress will eventually get involved, but as of right now, they have not.

There have been some state legislatures that have already passed some laws regarding autonomous vehicles, but most of those were to specifically allow autonomous vehicles on the roads.

Each state has their own transportation departments and each state has their own transportation laws enacted by their legislature. Congress also makes transportation related laws too as well as the Federal Highway Administration. I believe in some states local counties or cities can have some say in transportation regulations too.

 

[jabloomf1230]

I'll say it again. After the FSD beta is widely released, the main complaint here will be that using it is too boring.

 

[FOOLSLFDRVNG]

I am still shocked that they keep raising the price of FSD. I was certain it would go in the other direction. I figured as they sold more and more vehicles and eventually move it to subscription that it would be a reasonable cost to keep funding the effort. $10k is just crazy talk but hey, I paid like $8k more for the Performance vs. the LR AWD model which may be a waste of money to a lot of folks, so whatever floats your boat. Some like playing around with Summon mode and others like me prefer the faster acceleration and big red brake calipers.

I got both and it filled both holes nicely.

 

[raptor5244]

I'll say it again. After the FSD beta is widely released, the main complaint here will be that using it is too boring.

I would fall into that camp. It would be cool to have the car drive for about 5 minutes while I eat a burger but after that I would want to take over. Why should the autopilot have all the fun?

 

[raptor5244]

I got both and it filled both holes nicely.

Lol, bend over and grab your ankles. From a performance perspective, the M3P is still a great value I just wish they could have differentiated the P trim a bit more. Sport seats, front lip, rear diffuser, wider wheels/tires, maybe a HUD, mag ride suspension, unique color, etc.