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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
Mmmh…2015!
This is a bump for the thread I would like to see some more traction on.
@Cosmacelf , been missing your recommendations!
I am interested in how AI will change how pharmaceuticals are developed, but so far it has been a giant rabbit hole of early trials and hard to delineate the distinction between companies. Will report back if I find anything worth talking about.
Figure AI is drawing some major investment from the likes of Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Amazon, Intel, LG, and Samsung for the development of humanoid robotics. Their Figure 01 model is already doing some impressive demonstrations. Figure AI isn't publicly traded yet, but worth keeping an eye on.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Is anyone here following the Reddit IPO?
For transparency, I've spent enough time on Reddit that they've invited me to their DSP.
My intuition is that they're a deeply unprofitable social media company (reminiscent of Twitter prior to acquisition). The only thing that piques my interest is the value of their data for training AI. Subreddits are GB of self-sorting, domain-specific, mostly Q&A style text. Reddit's users protested the locking-down of their API and the closing of third-party apps, but they successfully pulled it off without a noticeable reduction in the user-base.
I guess the question is whether that training data continues to be a valuable resource; or whether models trained on Reddit's data would largely replace Reddit (think Stackoverflow).
EDIT: Looked up the discussion threads about the IPO on /r/investing and /r/wallstreetbets. Ironically they're both in agreement to steer clear.
For transparency, I've spent enough time on Reddit that they've invited me to their DSP.
My intuition is that they're a deeply unprofitable social media company (reminiscent of Twitter prior to acquisition). The only thing that piques my interest is the value of their data for training AI. Subreddits are GB of self-sorting, domain-specific, mostly Q&A style text. Reddit's users protested the locking-down of their API and the closing of third-party apps, but they successfully pulled it off without a noticeable reduction in the user-base.
I guess the question is whether that training data continues to be a valuable resource; or whether models trained on Reddit's data would largely replace Reddit (think Stackoverflow).
EDIT: Looked up the discussion threads about the IPO on /r/investing and /r/wallstreetbets. Ironically they're both in agreement to steer clear.
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I've been licking my wounds on lithium stocks: The Resource Angle
Sorry, I'm out of ideas currently other than HODL TSLA and look for a rebound sometime this year in TSLA in anticipation of giga Texas taking off and/or reveal and imminent delivery of the $25K car.
Space stocks might actually be worth something. The ones that managed to get CLPS awards I mean. Certainly you did well with LUNR if you had bought it earlier this year. Not a long term buy and hold, but if you research other commercial space companies that are about to send a mission up, it might be worth a gamble.
a question for what is probably an affectation, a whim so to speak
luminescent flowers, petunias, that have been "genengineered" with a mushroom luminescent so they actively glow and a bit of tweaking.
looks like partnering with symbol DNA and not quite a penny stock but close.
They are more a luxury item at the moment
luminescent flowers, petunias, that have been "genengineered" with a mushroom luminescent so they actively glow and a bit of tweaking.
looks like partnering with symbol DNA and not quite a penny stock but close.
They are more a luxury item at the moment
Ugh. I have not researched it so I don’t know. There’s this interesting private company called groq which has figured out how to get 10x performance over nvidia on LLM workloads. They made their own 12 nm chip, which isn’t even a state of the art process node. Their secret sauce is their compiler which takes the LLM weights and spreads out the inference workload efficiently among its specialized LLM chips.
Point being that there are a lot of companies gunning for nvidia which will erode its margins.
That’s tech investing in a nutshell. Can the market leader continue to advance their tech and dominance faster than the dozen smaller rivals?
And I don’t know the answer to that for nvidia.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
News is out that Reddit is planning to offer 22 million shares at $31-$34 per share. Based on that, and the number of Class A shares, it would put Reddit at a valuation of about $6.4 billion.
I haven't seen much fundamental analysis on the IPO, so I've tried my hand at it for the first time. Collected some data about other publicly listed social media companies (MAU, GAAP profits, Revenues), and found that their market caps are best explained in relation to their revenues. Variation in revenue explains about 92% of the variation in market cap. Plotting Reddit's revenues against this model shows a fair valuation of about $1.9 billion, with an 80% confidence interval of $1 billion to $3.5 billion. So even the upper limit of the estimate is 45% lower than their IPO valuation.
Although I found that MAU didn't really affect valuations, it is also worth noting that Reddit's revenue per user is disastrously low compared to these companies:
Not advice. Biggest flaw in this analysis is many of the companies above do way more than just social media.
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The all-in podcast did about 10 minutes on it a couple of weeks ago. They were fairly negative on it for similar reasons to you. It's lined up below.
I use Reddit quite frequently and think it adds a lot of value to get a wide range of views, particularly on niche topics. That said, it is infested with bots and special interests - and their app sucks.
Given the value Reddit provides to the wider community and the value of competing social networks, it's pretty poor performance that they can only capture $6bn of value. Perhaps if they had a better operator they'd do better.
OT: I used to like and subscribe but now I hate those guys but I just watched Interstellar again this weekend and very much appreciate that background. I loathe him the least...maybe.
Someone sent me an All In link. My thought on watching rhymed with "anchors".
Though maybe they are right about Reddit. Reddit is a good resource for information on a wide array of subjects, but while good for users, it may not be all that good for investors.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Well heck. I didn't anticipate this pop and passed on the DSP. I still think it's a bad investment in the long run, and by the trajectory of the SP it looks like the market agrees; but it still would have been nice for a quick buck:
won't be surprised if RDDT is below $45 by end of day.
But they could WSB it pretty easily if they wanted to.
But they could WSB it pretty easily if they wanted to.
WP if you invested! I have used reddit a lot and I find quality has "changed" a lot over the last few years. I guess millennial me don't like the GenZ taking over. So much private problems being shared in subreddits where it doesn't belong, anyone trying to be the voice of reason against the group mental orgy gets downvoted by hundreds of accounts very quickly etc. I get the feeling that theres lots of bots trying to portray the life in the west as dire to sow dissident and they are succeeding. Too bad because I have learnt a lot on reddit. Imo already or soon it will mostly be bots taking to bots.
Same - It's really only the heavily moderated subs on specific topics that remain a domain of open discourse. The SpaceX sub and AskHistorians are good examples.
in present hindsight, this was an idea whose time has _not_ arriveda question for what is probably an affectation, a whim so to speak
luminescent flowers, petunias, that have been "genengineered" with a mushroom luminescent so they actively glow and a bit of tweaking.
looks like partnering with symbol DNA and not quite a penny stock but close.
They are more a luxury item at the moment
perhaps somedaySolar powered lights that are biologicals
My niece just sent me this, very excitedly, from her jobsite.
Now, I have absolutely no knowledge of what she’s up to, but I certainly do of what she’s down to: 24.1K and 4.50e-7 mBar.
Good golly Miss Molly. What on earth (or outer space) might anyone need that for? Fusion tech, by any chance?
Now, I have absolutely no knowledge of what she’s up to, but I certainly do of what she’s down to: 24.1K and 4.50e-7 mBar.
Good golly Miss Molly. What on earth (or outer space) might anyone need that for? Fusion tech, by any chance?
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