What we know thus far, when do you think Gen 3 will actually be delivered?

[NigelM]

I think it's realistic to expect the Model III will be available Spring 2017.....

No really, where will they get batteries to make cars available in Spring 2017? Unless you talking cars in the tens or hundreds, it won't be in the thousands.

 

[igotzzoom]

No really, where will they get batteries to make cars available in Spring 2017? Unless you talking cars in the tens or hundreds, it won't be in the thousands.

I've got to imagine there's some sort of contingency plant for battery supply before the Gigafactory(ies) get fully up-to-speed. Maybe you're right, maybe we're looking at 2019 at the earliest. I'm hoping not, but willing to wait regardless.

 

[Trev Page]

No really, where will they get batteries to make cars available in Spring 2017? Unless you talking cars in the tens or hundreds, it won't be in the thousands.

Model III's availability and affordability totally depend on the Gigafactory being online and ready in time for production to start. Tesla had better start breaking ground really really soon in order to be ready in time. A huge factory like that will take 2 years to build and outfit not to mention getting a reasonable battery yield. It's going to be a ramp up for sure. Let's see how they ramp up Model X production...

 

[NigelM]

I've got to imagine there's some sort of contingency plant for battery supply before the Gigafactory(ies) get fully up-to-speed.

The problem is global capacity and that's why Tesla is building the gigafactory. See Trev Page's post above, he's spot on; Tesla might have some batteries out of the plant in 2017 but there's lots of things that might delay it and big building projects rarely finish early. I think it's quite possible that we'll see some cars in 2017, I just don't think it will be many and certainly not early in the year.

 

[wart]

In addition to the battery supply issue, there is also other supporting infrastructure required. In order to sell and support cars in Model 3 volumes Tesla is going to need a LOT more stores, service centers, spare parts availability, trained service technicians, etc. It's not just about building 100,000 cars per year, it's about building an infrastructure that is capable of building and selling and supporting 100,000 cars per year.

I still think if we see any Model 3's delivered in 2017 it will just be the Signatures and volume production won't be until 2018.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Getting depressed about the M3 timeline, how can I wait 4 years? Then after seeing a BMW5 on the road today, and thinking the MS is a little bigger than that and the M3 will be a little smaller, I'm pondering starting to plan for a MS in 2015/2016. How much less trunk+frunk space are we expecting in the M3, and what about rear headroom?

 

[dsm363]

We should probably start to be better about abbreviations.
M3 is also a BMW car

And while it is unlikely to get confused on a Tesla forum MS is also a serious disease.

 

[NigelM]

In addition to the battery supply issue, there is also other supporting infrastructure required. In order to sell and support cars in Model 3 volumes Tesla is going to need a LOT more stores, service centers, spare parts availability, trained service technicians, etc. It's not just about building 100,000 cars per year, it's about building an infrastructure that is capable of building and selling and supporting 100,000 cars per year.

The folks at Tesla service centers and stores work hard and often long hours already That's for ~30,000 Model Ss per year. Now bring on Model X at around the same number or even higher and add in 100,000 Model 3s; rough calculation would be that they'd need the existing capacity multiplied 4-5 times. Of course they're opening new stores all the time but it's still a major logistical challenge.

 

[CHGolferJim]

We should probably start to be better about abbreviations.
M3 is also a BMW car

And while it is unlikely to get confused on a Tesla forum MS is also a serious disease.

i thought of that as I wrote the post, so how to reach a consensus?

 

[dsm363]

Tesla is calling it Model 3.
It's better if people write out Model S too but understand it is easier to abbreviate. A lot of people write that though so didn't mean to make it seem like I was replying to one person.

 

[JRP3]

"TM3" would designate Tesla Model 3, or you can press alt 240 on your keyboard which produces "≡" and you can create M≡. Or we can simply realize the naming scheme is just an FU to Ford and keep calling it the Model E.

Regarding M≡ production volume, I expect Tesla can produce thousands of them without the GF and at least tens of thousands of them with early GF output.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

"TM3" would designate Tesla Model 3, or you can press alt 240 on your keyboard which produces "≡" and you can create M≡. Or we can simply realize the naming scheme is just an FU to Ford and keep calling it the Model E.

Regarding M≡ production volume, I expect Tesla can produce thousands of them without the GF and at least tens of thousands of them with early GF output.

TM3 works for me. It's a little more work to type than G3, but I'm ok with that.

 

[aronth5]

Is it just me or does anyone else believe the name is not cast in stone and could still change? All I care about is when can I put my reservation in.

 

[Red Sage]

I predicted, "The first units will be delivered in the final quarter of 2016. Production will ramp up gradually through the first half of 2017. Full production at a rate of 100,000 units per year will commence by the end of Summer 2017. That will increase to 200,000 in 2018, and reach 400,000 in 2019." This drew a bit of protest...

How are they going to do that without batteries?

They will get batteries from Panasonic, in higher quantities than today, until the Gigafactory is ready. Tesla Motors will be increasing production for Fall 2014 using the increased quantities that were promised by Panasonic late last year. Tesla asked for a LOT more than what they will be getting through the middle of next year. Panasonic was rather reluctant to go to the expense of manufacturing at the volume Tesla requested. They are very, very conservative. Until now, they have been in 'wait-and-see' mode, to make sure that working with Tesla was prudent. From their point of view, Tesla is moving too fast, asking for too much, before they have proven their worth as a company or the demand for their cars. I expect that will change, well before the Tesla Model ☰ is released. The change has in fact already begun, because Panasonic recently announced they are 'all-in' on the Gigafactory. Panasonic may have paid too much attention to naysayers before, who warned that Tesla might go under, leaving them high and dry with stock on hand, in transit, or sitting on the docks. They know better now.

The current plan (assuming all goes well) is for the gigafactory to come online in 2017 with full annualized production in 2020.

Yes. And the beginning production from the Gigafactory, combined with deliveries from Panasonic, will be enough to cover a whole lot of cars in the months leading up to 2017, and in the years bridging the gap to 2020. My presumption is that for production out of Fremont, the Tesla Model S will be capped at roughly 50,000 per year, and the Tesla Model X at three times that amount 150,000 per year. Tesla Motors will need enough batteries from Panasonic to manage that pace starting around the third quarter of 2015, and moving forward from there... With the huge pile of reservations they will have in place for Tesla Model ☰ by early 2016, Tesla will be able to convince Panasonic to increase their output further, so that production can begin, at least in a limited fashion, by 4th Quarter of 2016.

Sorry to be the party-pooper but I think folks are pretty much ignoring the supply constraints here.

No, I'm not ignoring them. I just expect them to go away. As I've mentioned before, it will take fewer battery cells per vehicle to achieve 60 or 85 kWh capacities by the time the Tesla Model ☰ design is finalized, and production begins. That will allow production of the new car to proceed even without the Gigafactory, using current supply lines from Panasonic.

What I'm saying here is that though Tesla cannot reach 500,000 units without the Gigafactory, they can certainly start production without it. The Gigafactory is needed to challenge mass market ICE vehicles in sales, and to reduce the wait time for those who want to purchase them.

 

[Topspin]

I'm betting that we'll see a few Gen3's by the end of 2017 with deliveries in earnest in 2018. I'm ready to put down a deposit now.

Given how critical the Gen 3 is for Tesla I'd be very surprised if they took that risk.
Fundamentally they cannot get this wrong. That's part of the reason why I think it'll take longer than most people seem to think.

Agree. Gen 3 is the mainstream high volume car. It absolutely positively has to be dead solid reliable and easy for normal people to own. Maybe I have a skewed view from reading the forums but it seems to me that the Model S owners are putting up with some "early adopter" inconveniences like screen reboots etc. Enthusiasts and early adopters will deal with that kind of thing. Average people won't. If Gen 3 has ANY high-profile glitches then Tesla may very well be done. They need to take the time to get it right. My guess is 2018.

Tesla/Elon has never hit a stated date so odds of 2017 are zero. It will be 2018.

I realize that your stock portfolio has forced the creation of a severe reality distortion field around yourself but you really should step outside and join us here in the real world sometime.

I've been around here and been a customer of Tesla for awhile longer than you have. Tesla has repeatedly missed dates and promised features (on-board music storage, WiFi hotspot, vanity mirrors, sun shade, aero wheels-yes they're back now, etc). This happened before you joined but the start of Model S "production" consisted of 14 hand-built cars delivered to insiders and investors. It was then several months later when actual line production began.

Further it doesn't matter *why* Model X was delayed, the simple fact of the matter is that for the people who put down their money Tesla will not make the dates they stated which is yet another broken promise. And don't give me this garbage about what is or is not a "hard" date. If Elon says it then it's a company commitment; he doesn't get to pick and choose which things he "meant." Tesla is also a big fan of revisionist history, most recently downplaying the value of having Lotus help them w/ the Roadster.

As you stated a TON of things have to go exactly perfectly for Tesla to hit a 2017 date and I just don't think they're capable of it. Tesla has never built or run a battery factory before and so they will make mistakes. Sure, Panasonic is "helping" them but history says that Elon will make decisions that are contrary to expert recommendations and he will simply decree it regardless of the consequences (narrowing the side sills on the Roadster as one example - cost a boatload of money and time). Remember that Tesla has to not only BUILD the GF but they have to make significant cost-saving improvements in order to hit their cost models for Gen3. That is something that we just don't know the timelines on. If Tesla only wanted to make a smaller Model S w/ existing cells they could likely crank it out by late next year but that's not the goal of the car.

This board amuses me because anytime someone says something negative about Tesla everyone freaks out and thinks we're shorting the stock or are involved in some kind of plot to ruin the company. You people make Apple fanbois look like haters. Look at my .sig. I'm a believer in Tesla, but I'm also a realist and have worked in Silicon Valley for the past 15 years. My company has never hit a stated date either, it's part of the culture.

I realize that my use of the word "never" is provocative and perhaps I should have said "almost never." But look, it's clear by the articles in your .sig that you are talking your book. There is literally nothing I can say that will counter your faith and I have better things to do with my time than argue on the Internet. My prediction of Gen 3 production in 2018 stands.

My prediction q3 2018
model x high demand and supply constraints causing problems

 

[Gabzqc]

Boom! Get your opinions down! me too I'm ready to put in my deposit!

 

[Red Sage]

There are some guys in the Tesla Motors Forums who claim that the Tesla Model ☰ won't arrive -- at all -- until 2020.

I am utterly flabbergasted by the 'reality distortion field' that Naysayers use.

I'm wondering how many of the people who are so certain Tesla Motors won't have the Generation III cars ready by 2017 are willing to wait until 2018 to put in their reservations...

 

[NigelM]

They will get batteries from Panasonic, in higher quantities than today, until the Gigafactory is ready.

But it's been confirmed often enough that Panasonic doesn't have spare capacity at the moment....Tesla/Elon has stated before that they are supply constrained and not production constrained. With on-going demand for Model S, and an ever increasing wait list for Model X, it's unrealistic to think they can produce any Model 3 without the gigafactory.

 

[JRP3]

Except that Panasonic is still able to increase production since Tesla's line upgrade will allow more cars to be built at a faster rate. If Panasonic was still the roadblock that would not be possible.

 

[Red Sage]

I'm pretty sure that someone noted, or intuited, from redacted paperwork that outlined changes to the Tesla Motors/Panasonic battery cell contract late in 2013, that Panasonic would be expanding their own facilities to meet the needs of Tesla Motors in the short term, prior to the opening of the Gigafactory. The presumption is that if Panasonic produces the higher quantity of batteries, and Tesla does not take immediate delivery of them, that Tesla will pay a penalty roughly equivalent to the cost of the expansion they underwent, in addition to payment for the batteries, once Tesla does take them. Like I said, Panasonic is being very, very conservative.