What will Model 3 do to Chevy Bolt sales?

[ratsbew]

I think Tesla has played their hand well. They will show off the Model 3 which I think will make the bolt (Leaf 2?) look obsolete nearly 12 months before it is even on sale. I feel like this will have a very large impact on Bolt sales. Anyone in the market for a Bolt will probably know about the Model 3.

Thoughts?

 

[flankspeed8]

It will all rest in the publics confidence that Tesla will be able to deliver when they promise. The Bolt, love it or hate it, WILL be on sale and ready for delivery late this year/beginning of next. They have a first mover advantage. In the end, the Bolt will have a far greater impact on the Leaf IMO.

 

[Twiglett]

It will all rest in the publics confidence that Tesla will be able to deliver when they promise. The Bolt, love it or hate it, WILL be on sale and ready for delivery late this year/beginning of next. They have a first mover advantage. In the end, the Bolt will have a far greater impact on the Leaf IMO.

indeed - my Leaf lease will be up before M3 is ready, so I'm looking at at least a year or more of waiting, so I'll likely get a short term lease on a Bolt.
There is zero chance of me going back to ICE and don't want another Leaf

 

[postpast]

Judging by Tesla waning to sell higher end models first, ad having to work through back orders, I think it is realistic that it will be over three years between the time you can test drive a sub-$40,000 Bolt and buy one, and the time you can test drive and buy a sub-$40,000 Model 3 and buy one. That is a full 36 month lease, and that is fairly optimistic on Tesla's timeline.

 

[RAM_Eh]

Saw the Bolt at the Toronto Auto show. I like the look but it is still smoke and mirrors as the will not let you get close to it.

 

[CaptainKirk]

Judging by Tesla waning to sell higher end models first, ad having to work through back orders, I think it is realistic that it will be over three years between the time you can test drive a sub-$40,000 Bolt and buy one, and the time you can test drive and buy a sub-$40,000 Model 3 and buy one. That is a full 36 month lease, and that is fairly optimistic on Tesla's timeline.

Elon did say that they would place a priority for higher optioned cars initially, but there needs to be a careful balance here. Tesla can't call it a car for the masses if they ONLY make maxed out version for the 3 years, all the naysayers would have a field day. What I think they'll do is have an initial run of the highest optioned cars for 6 to 12 months. Then, once they know how to make the cars really well and the manufacturing bugs are smoothed out, batch lower spec'd cars in between lots of higher optioned cars.

 

[Twiglett]

Saw the Bolt at the Toronto Auto show. I like the look but it is still smoke and mirrors as the will not let you get close to it.

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There is no reason to disbelieve that they will be available when they say though.
Right now we don't even have the slightest idea what the Model 3 will look like, nor is there any track record to say that Tesla will ship any before 2018.
But there is a significant bunch of folks (including me) clamoring to give them $1000 deposit on one.
At least GM have got this far and let the press drive around in one. Have to give them credit for that at least.

 

[RAM_Eh]

There is no reason to disbelieve that they will be available when they say though.
Right now we don't even have the slightest idea what the Model 3 will look like, nor is there any track record to say that Tesla will ship any before 2018.
But there is a significant bunch of folks (including me) clamoring to give them $1000 deposit on one.
At least GM have got this far and let the press drive around in one. Have to give them credit for that at least.

I don't disagree with you, and very like minded.

 

[tga]

It will all rest in the publics confidence that Tesla will be able to deliver when they promise. The Bolt, love it or hate it, WILL be on sale and ready for delivery late this year/beginning of next. They have a first mover advantage. In the end, the Bolt will have a far greater impact on the Leaf IMO.

First mover advantage is often overrated. Creative Labs (and many others) had first mover advantage over Apple in the MP3 player space, and we saw how well it worked for them.

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indeed - my Leaf lease will be up before M3 is ready, so I'm looking at at least a year or more of waiting, so I'll likely get a short term lease on a Bolt.
There is zero chance of me going back to ICE and don't want another Leaf

Might be a lot cheaper to buy the Leaf and skip the Bolt. Or pick up the last couple of years on another Leaf from swapalease.com, etc. Leasing for <3 years is ugly - you're paying for the period with the most depreciation, but the least amount of time to amortize it over.

 

[Breezy]

Each will enhance the sales of the other. People looking at a Model 3 will become aware of and may choose the Bolt depending on their needs, and vice versa.

 

[Trev Page]

Never mind the Bolt. The BMW i3 is going to suffer tremendously. BMW is going to take a bath on that car.

 

[flankspeed8]

Never mind the Bolt. The BMW i3 is going to suffer tremendously. BMW is going to take a bath on that car.

Sounds like they already are...the i3 sales have fallen through the floor, but the i series has a good chunk of BMW's NA sales share.

 

[Zythryn]

Model 3 will have no affect on Bolt sales until the Model 3 is actually being produced.
The Bolt will do just fine and will be available at least a full year before the Model 3.

The success of the Bolt lies with how well GM can execute their marketing plan, not with the future Model 3.

 

[Tam]

Two different markets. There are people who currently do not want to pay for Superchargers because they have no need for them (40kWh and some 60kWh Model S) . Thus, Bolt will appeal to those who do not want Superchargers.

 

[aronth5]

Based on looks the Model 3 should certainly have an advantage! Neither the Bolt or I3 are much to look at.

 

[Az_Rael]

The Bolt will appeal to those who are looking for a CUV-style car with more interior room. I assume the first Model 3 we will see will be a more traditional sedan.

I also suspect the Bolt will end up cheaper optioned out with all the creature comforts because I doubt they will offer any sort of battery/performance options. It might matter to folks if they can get a fully load Bolt with leather, XM, Car Play, heated seats/steering wheel, parking sensors and auto cruise control for probably a lot less than you will be able to buy a similarly spec'd 3.

 

[Trev Page]

I also suspect the Bolt will end up cheaper optioned out with all the creature comforts because I doubt they will offer any sort of battery/performance options. It might matter to folks if they can get a fully load Bolt with leather, XM, Car Play, heated seats/steering wheel, parking sensors and auto cruise control for probably a lot less than you will be able to buy a similarly spec'd 3.

The only thing Model 3 and the Bolt have in common at the moment are very similar base prices.

Bolt won't have battery options, and maxed out ,options might take it to $42K and that's it.
GM is aiming for the lower end market, aka LEAF, and I suspect will clobber Nissan sales until the second gen LEAF arrives. Th Bolt is an econobox with an expensive battery but it's a step in the right direction as far as costs are concerned. Given the new rebates in Ontario Canada I suspect it will do very well for GM provided the stealership network gets its act together. Heck, since we don't have crazy franchise law shenanigans in Canada GM could setup something direct but probably won't.

Model 3's market, again to repeat Elon for the umpteenth time, is the BMW 3 series but also take that segment to new heights with full Autopilot.

GM has no a supercharger network, no OTA software updates, no fleet learning, no autopilot capabilities etc... I'm not trying to denigrate GM (I don't care for their cars mind you) but the Bolt is what it is and it will do just fine. My heart, and $$ is firmly in the Tesla camp however.

 

[TitanP85D]

Tesla will murder Bolt sales.

Tesla is able to create a much better car with the technology they have been building all this years, technology they own, including batteries.
Model 3 will win in all aspects (price, range, performance, looks, central console, software, OTA updates, customer service...), that's my guess.

 

[Az_Rael]

Tesla will murder Bolt sales.

Tesla is able to create a much better car with the technology they have been building all this years, technology they own, including batteries.
Model 3 will win in all aspects (price, range, performance, looks, central console, software, OTA updates, customer service...), that's my guess.

overall, I think you are correct - Tesla will sell way more Model 3s than GM does Bolts. But I think that will mostly be because of brand perception. Tesla is the new luxury hotness, ala Range Rover, etc. It will be perceived by many as a status symbol vs GMs Bolt. (Just like a 3-series BMW vs a Chevy SS)

 

[flankspeed8]

overall, I think you are correct - Tesla will sell way more Model 3s than GM does Bolts. But I think that will mostly be because of brand perception. Tesla is the new luxury hotness, ala Range Rover, etc. It will be perceived by many as a status symbol vs GMs Bolt. (Just like a 3-series BMW vs a Chevy SS)

marketing is a wild-card and could really swing public perception towards a Bolt if GM really wants to go full-court. It is just a matter of time before Tesla is going to have to do some advertising because there is an incredibly large part of the population, at lest in my area, who do not know what Tesla even is.