What's TSLA price by Friday 7/24 if it posts Q2 GAAP profit?

[The Martian]

Assume macro is stable. Please cast your vote.

 

[mongo]

Depends on how much profit. I went to the optimistic side of realistic.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Already hit 1795 intraday before so if you believe in a new ATH, this is the target on positive news.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Already hit 1795 intraday before so if you believe in a new ATH, this is the target on positive news.

By 7/24? Usually takes a few days for good news to fully digest. I think we’ll be somewhere in 1500-1750.

 

[traxila]

Depends on how much profit. I went to the optimistic side of realistic.

Don’t think that profits size matters at all. From a SP perspective this is all about the S&P.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

$1892

Edit: .....by next Tuesday.

 

[The Martian]

Depends on how much profit. I went to the optimistic side of realistic.

I don't think amount of profit matters this time unless it's huge which is unlikely IMO. All eyes on S&P 500 inclusion.

 

[mongo]

Don’t think that profits size matters at all. From a SP perspective this is all about the S&P.

Yes, but positivity is assumed in the question and there is more to the stock price rising than S&P.

I don't think amount of profit matters this time unless it's huge which is unlikely IMO. All eyes on S&P 500 inclusion.

Maybe unlikely, but possible. If Tesla's emissions credits are guaranteed or the deferred tax credit is recognized or the MIC 3 margins are great, it could be quite impressive.
$0.20 a share -> accused of cooking books, but rise on S&P 1500-1750
$1.00 a share -> good results in a pandemic 1750-2000
$2.00 a share -> what what? Q3 will be crazy. Over 2000

1750 is only a 16% rise over Friday's close, so I went with 1750-2000.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I think it will go up later, but down at first unless the profit is significant and pretty much based on profit from current operations, not other weird stuff.

 

[vikings123]

I also agree that showing a Q2 profit without the additional levers and/or confirming 2020 guidance will be important for the SP in the short term. The rest will be noise. I feel confident that a Q2 profit without the ZEV credits is secure;Model Y margins, FSD take rate, Better China margins, Renegotiated Panasonic contract.

I do think we will get a pre ER bump starting with our typical Tesla Mondays.

Based on the leaks and Elon’s general mood, this quarter means a whole lot more to him even through he does not care about Quarterly results. Yes he might have given mixed signals in previous quarters but it cannot get anymore definitive than this. Elon is crazy but not stupid. I think we are in for a big surprise in terms of the GAAP number.

 

[The Martian]

I also agree that showing a Q2 profit without the additional levers and/or confirming 2020 guidance will be important for the SP in the short term. The rest will be noise. I feel confident that a Q2 profit without the ZEV credits is secure;Model Y margins, FSD take rate, Better China margins, Renegotiated Panasonic contract.

I do think we will get a pre ER bump starting with our typical Tesla Mondays.

Based on the leaks and Elon’s general mood, this quarter means a whole lot more to him even through he does not care about Quarterly results. Yes he might have given mixed signals in previous quarters but it cannot get anymore definitive than this. Elon is crazy but not stupid. I think we are in for a big surprise in terms of the GAAP number.

Good point. Profitable without ZEV credits is a big positive and great PR. "break even" Elon was referring to could mean without ZEV credits. That's what makes Elon excited.

 

[Jack6591]

Can I post my answer after the earnings call and after I had time to digest guidance.

I expect aggressive questioning. This will be a very interesting call.

 

[The Martian]

Can I post my answer after the earnings call and after I had time to digest guidance.

I expect aggressive questioning. This will be a very interesting call.

Sorry, system doesn't allow to change the end date/time. But, ER call will start at 2:30pm and poll will close at 3:27pm. You should have fair amount of time in between to cast your vote.

 

[Mo City]

After 120 votes, it appears the forum as a whole is very grounded in reality.

 

[Dutchie]

I think an exeptional great profit is already baked into the price. A "meh" profit would sink price to <$1500. Look at Netflix. Went down too, even after some great numbers.

 

[Runarbt]

I think an exeptional great profit is already baked into the price. A "meh" profit would sink price to <$1500. Look at Netflix. Went down too, even after some great numbers.

Nah.. nothing is baked into the SP yet - other than a possibility for a profit. When it is a fact, we will get a rise imho.

Netflix - missed earning pr. share, and their guidance was low.. Not comparable. Analysts still expect Tesla to loose $1 or so pr. share.

 

[Cohiba]

Macro is positive, SPY 340 will happen shortly. That would lead TSLA to +2000

 

[tinm]

...But we can party like it’s 1999