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When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?

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Each individual battery is bigger, for sure, but that also means fewer of them to make a pack, which leads to possibility that they can be spaced apart further away from each other, -> larger diameter coils and/or more coils. It's all in how the entire system is designed.

Cooling is an interesting deal on the 4680 pack. Yes, it'll need larger active coolling due to the lower surface-area-to-volume of the bigger cells.

But I believe the real key to making it all work is the "tabless" cell design. Better described as a continuous tab, this innovation shortens the electrical paths in the cell, which drops resistive losses and thus.... produces less heat! Presto - larger format cells suddenly are viable.
 
Cooling is an interesting deal on the 4680 pack. Yes, it'll need larger active coolling due to the lower surface-area-to-volume of the bigger cells.

But I believe the real key to making it all work is the "tabless" cell design. Better described as a continuous tab, this innovation shortens the electrical paths in the cell, which drops resistive losses and thus.... produces less heat! Presto - larger format cells suddenly are viable.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. It's a bit of an unknown on that front and it is interesting that the Plaid S utilizes the smallest form factor cells (18650) instead of the 2170, let alone holding out for the 4680. I think there are going to be tradeoffs and I'm interested to see how things stack up once they are churning out cars with 4680 cells.
 
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. It's a bit of an unknown on that front and it is interesting that the Plaid S utilizes the smallest form factor cells (18650) instead of the 2170, let alone holding out for the 4680. I think there are going to be tradeoffs and I'm interested to see how things stack up once they are churning out cars with 4680 cells.

Yep. Funny but true - power rate and cooling are easiest on the oldest thin-cylinder cells. It's more expensive, but it works. 4680 is about saving money by having far fewer cells and making them do double-duty as structure. That requires new tech.
 
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When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?
When Austin is up and running? When will Austin be doing volume production of the Y? Is Tesla going to begin production in Austin with 4680 packs or 2170 packs trucked over from Nevada?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

How much has the price of a Model Y increased in the 13 months since you started this thread? Are you still waiting and if so, do you feel it’s been worth it?
 
Im taking delivery of my MYLR this weekend. Though I wished deeply for the 4680s.

Im not waiting because it could be a year out before Fremont switches, and I’m on the west coast, so it’s a big gamble to wait.

but I’m certain the new structural packs will significantly improve 0-60 speed AND improve handling — because they will significantly reduce the weight.

Rather than add more packs and improve current range, Tesla will use fewer 4680s to improve their margin — less material = lower cost. And still the consumer will be delighted with a faster more nimble model Y.

I’m just hoping that when the battery recycling market gets to full scale, the cost of upgrading the battery goes down.

Maybe in like 5-8 years it’ll be $2-5k to swap for an after market pack that’s 50% lighter and makes a MYLR into a MYP.
 
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Im taking delivery of my MYLR this weekend. Though I wished deeply for the 4680s.

Im not waiting because it could be a year out before Fremont switches, and I’m on the west coast, so it’s a big gamble to wait.

but I’m certain the new structural packs will significantly improve 0-60 speed AND improve handling — because they will significantly reduce the weight.

Rather than add more packs and improve current range, Tesla will use fewer 4680s to improve their margin — less material = lower cost. And still the consumer will be delighted with a faster more nimble model Y.

I’m just hoping that when the battery recycling market gets to full scale, the cost of upgrading the battery goes down.

Maybe in like 5-8 years it’ll be $2-5k to swap for an after market pack that’s 50% lighter and makes a MYLR into a MYP.

Just latching on to your final point: The battery packs are identical between MYLR and MYP. The MYP has a different rear motor. So a future pack update would not change a MYLR into a MYP.

That said, for $2k you can buy acceleration-boost option from Tesla on a MYLR which gives it about 2/3rds of the added speed of the MYP.
 
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Im taking delivery of my MYLR this weekend. Though I wished deeply for the 4680s.

Im not waiting because it could be a year out before Fremont switches, and I’m on the west coast, so it’s a big gamble to wait.

but I’m certain the new structural packs will significantly improve 0-60 speed AND improve handling — because they will significantly reduce the weight.

Rather than add more packs and improve current range, Tesla will use fewer 4680s to improve their margin — less material = lower cost. And still the consumer will be delighted with a faster more nimble model Y.

I’m just hoping that when the battery recycling market gets to full scale, the cost of upgrading the battery goes down.

Maybe in like 5-8 years it’ll be $2-5k to swap for an after market pack that’s 50% lighter and makes a MYLR into a MYP.
the listed reduction in weight is 25 pounds. at 280 miles of range. All the projections of stunning driving improvements people made with deluded.
 
How much has the price of a Model Y increased in the 13 months since you started this thread? Are you still waiting and if so, do you feel it’s been worth it?

That's been my point all along. Mine is now $11,000 more than when I bought it, so I don't really care about the $7,500 tax credit and the battery and castings are not worth the extra $3,500

I just wish I'd bought five of them and unloaded the other four at enough of a profit to pay for number five!
 
That's been my point all along. Mine is now $11,000 more than when I bought it, so I don't really care about the $7,500 tax credit and the battery and castings are not worth the extra $3,500

I just wish I'd bought five of them and unloaded the other four at enough of a profit to pay for number five!
Same here. I have really enjoyed my $49K MY LR. I also have a discount Rivian preorder from late last year. I don't know what I'll do for a vehicle in 2023, but it sure has been beneficial to not constantly wait for some new battery architecture that will most likely benefit the manufacturer, not the buyer.

I really like my MY. But paying well over $80K for MY LR + FSD + tax is a bit crazy IMO. Vehicles appropriately in the $80K-$100K are Rivian, MS LR and probably thefuture high end cybertruck as well as other luxury EV.
 
why would there be "better range"?

They simply put just enough in there to get the same range. Maybe stuff the rest of the compartment with old newspapers
something light, inexpensive and structural with good bonding properties that wouldn’t break down with the chemicals in the fluid or the endless warm/cold temp swings. composite tubes filled with closed-cell foam maybe.
 
The only advantage i can see with the 4680 is either better range (not being released yet since its probably just standard range) and better supercharging speeds/curves. Not an issue for me since i rarely ever supercharge.
The supercharging speed thing is also debatable. If anything, the larger cells might slow things down though the tabless design might counter some of that. I really don't think it's going to be a big leap on that front at all and might even get gimped a bit. The Plaid S has the best charging curve amongst Tesla cars and uses the smallest form factor cells (not even the current 2170, but the 18650). 4680 will be good for Tesla's bottom line. I think some folks are pinning way too much on them being some revolutionary leap when it comes to their own experience of owning a 4680 equipped car.

Personally, I'd much rather get a battle tested 2170 cell equipped MY than be an early adopter of the 4680 cells at this stage in the game.
 
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The supercharging speed thing is also debatable. If anything, the larger cells might slow things down though the tabless design might counter some of that. I really don't think it's going to be a big leap on that front at all and might even get gimped a bit. The Plaid S has the best charging curve amongst Tesla cars and uses the smallest form factor cells (not even the current 2170, but the 18650). 4680 will be good for Tesla's bottom line. I think some folks are pinning way too much on them being some revolutionary leap when it comes to their own experience of owning a 4680 equipped car.

Personally, I'd much rather get a battle tested 2170 cell equipped MY than be an early adopter of the 4680 cells at this stage in the game.
The form factor wouldn't improve the supercharge speed, but aren't the 4680s using different chemistry and cooling methods vs the 2170 pack? If they design the cooling system better in the 4680 pack then i can see how it would improve supercharge speed. But honestly 0-80% in 30 minutes is pretty hard to top these days.
 
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The form factor wouldn't improve the supercharge speed, but aren't the 4680s using different chemistry and cooling methods vs the 2170 pack? If they design the cooling system better in the 4680 pack then i can see how it would improve supercharge speed. But honestly 0-80% in 30 minutes is pretty hard to top these days.
Form factor does impact cooling efficiency. The larger the cells, the lower the surface area to volume ratio, so the more heat you have to wick away from less effective surface area. That's over simplifying but also likely the reason for the Plaid S going with the 18650 over 2170. The big question is whether tabless design, lower internal resistance, chemistry, etc., can counter this sufficiently. Pendulum could swing either way but it isn't at all clear if this will even improve over the 2170 when it comes to charge curves, let alone significantly surpass them. Everything is conjecture at this point in the absence of any hard data from Tesla, but the only thing we do know is the 4680 cells will inherently start with a disadvantage on the thermals side of things for the reasons above.
 
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the range will be whatever it needs to be to outperform the competition...........if ford, audi etc......put out a vehicle with similar performance and specs then tesla will release a battery with higher range like 400 miles or something. we've already seen lucid with 500 miles but expensive, not delivering......
bottom line, telsa has a buffer with performance, range and features that will be unleashed incrementally as needed to stay ahead of the curve

as with the computer industry. intel had the processing power decades ago that we are only seeing now in personal computers today.......why, because they don't make money if they release a processor that will last for 10-20 years opposed to releasing a slightly faster processor every yr and selling a new computer to the same person every few years. Competition will dictate range and features.......as we have already seen. If not for the hummer, rivian, the cybertruck would not be quad motor with 4 wheel steering
 
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At this point, I’m convinced the 4680 battery won’t be in any car before my MYLR is paid off. Crazy to think this thread was started 13 months and $11,000 ago on the price of a new MYLR. Proves once again that speculating is just another word for gambling…
 
Everything is hypothetical until there are some MY out there with the battery Long term to have data on. Being the newest battery tech and so great why not have it on the MS first?
it won't be on the MS or MX because they've just gone thru an engineering refresh and the decision was made not to go 4680.
Probably because they are low volume cars, and because the 4680 would not be ready in time.
Not to mention the massive volume demands of the CT, Semi, Roadster, etc etc. which are entirely predicated on the 4680 being available.

There's not enough financial benefit for Tesla to re-redesign the MS and MX now. Especially since they're still having trouble getting MX out the door.
It will happen the next refresh cycle, or not at all.
 
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