When non-owner invites go out, will CA non-owners get the first invites?

[jtpassat]

Maybe I'm giving Tesla more credit than it deserves but I would assume they have a process in place that can keep track of the number of cars in each service center waiting to be delivered vs. the number of cars each SC center can process. Then making sure each SC has no more than x number of days of backlog of cars waiting for delivery. Based on that they can start distributing cars throughout SC's ensuring each doesn't have any more than x number of days of backlog.

CA deliveries might be saturated, but you also have giant parking lots where they can put cars. I don't think they have that have that anywhere else yet.

So they could send 100 cars to LA, and still have more room than sending 10 to NY

 

[erthquake]

There are also plenty of smaller stores/delivery centers in CA that aren't delivering to non-employees yet. My local Santa Barbara store is one, and it has a pretty decent sized back lot that can easily hold 120+ cars.

 

[RenMan68]

They may not want it to be quicker if it causes the 200,000th Tesla be sold in the US before the quarter ends.

I might believe Tesla would play some games to help people with the tax credit issue but, given their staggering cash burn, I suspect they want to pump cars out as fast as possible. The model 3 HAS to be profitable for them so their business model must show that they make money on each one built & delivered.

 

[daniel]

I'm an east coast non-owner, inline reservation holder. My estimate is Dec 2017- Feb 2018. There have been plenty of deliveries across the country so I wonder if Tesla will circle back and send out CA non-owners invites first. I wonder if it will be supply constrained. I would expect to still receive an invite before a CA non-owner that has a later reservation though.

Interesting. I'm a Day-2 owner in Washington State and I have the same estimate window as you have. But with all the Day-1 owners in my state obviously ahead of me, and January more than half gone. I really don't see how they're going to manage it. My own estimate is that I'll have my car some time before June. And I'd rather they take their time and get it right, even if it means I have to wait far past the estimate, than get a rush-job early.

 

[SpiceWare]

I might believe Tesla would play some games to help people with the tax credit issue but, given their staggering cash burn, I suspect they want to pump cars out as fast as possible.

? They can still pump out the cars. Send vehicles to the east coast if they need a short delay for the 200,000th US sale, or out of country if they need a longer one - I'm sure there's plenty of people in Canada and Mexico who'd love to get their Model 3 earlier and the distances would have minimal effect on Tesla's cash flow.

 

[rosh]

Interesting. I'm a Day-2 owner in Washington State and I have the same estimate window as you have. But with all the Day-1 owners in my state obviously ahead of me, and January more than half gone. I really don't see how they're going to manage it. My own estimate is that I'll have my car some time before June. And I'd rather they take their time and get it right, even if it means I have to wait far past the estimate, than get a rush-job early.

Interesting. By any chance, have you checked your tesla account for the ability to configure? There are a entries in the spreadsheet that fit your profile that have already configured. I know a lot of people have not received emails but are/were able to configure.

 

[daniel]

Interesting. By any chance, have you checked your tesla account for the ability to configure? There are a entries in the spreadsheet that fit your profile that have already configured. I know a lot of people have not received emails but are/were able to configure.

Yes. I checked this morning before posting. Are you saying there are Day-2 owners in WA (or even anywhere??) who have configured? It really would make no sense to allow Day-2 owners to configure before Day-1 owners in the same region. I know there are people in WA who have configured, but I'm sure they all reserved on Day 1.

 

[Chris350]

My question is.... Is there a breakdown of car orders per state.... ?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The system is pretty clear:
(1) For a while, employees of Elon Musk companies
(2) Whatever Tesla thinks will make them the most money fastest

Right now it's generally Californian owners and some non-Californian owners.

Just try to stop thinking about it.
Just give Tesla a simple target date and make a plan of what you'll do if Tesla can't meet your target.

I'm a non-owner, reserved online 3/31 + ~2 minutes. My target is to be able to buy and title a Model 3 SR and get the $7500 tax credit. If I can't get the full tax credit I'll drive my Prius into the ground/expensive hardware failure and then take a look at the market at that point.

 

[rosh]

Yes. I checked this morning before posting. Are you saying there are Day-2 owners in WA (or even anywhere??) who have configured? It really would make no sense to allow Day-2 owners to configure before Day-1 owners in the same region. I know there are people in WA who have configured, but I'm sure they all reserved on Day 1.

Not Washington specifically, but west coast. According to the spreadsheet, one WA owner reserved in July 2017 with a delivery estimate of Nov 2017-Jan 2018. so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[rosh]

My question is.... Is there a breakdown of car orders per state.... ?

I think the spreadsheet will be the closest you will get that to that. It contains tabs for states and a map.

12-28-17 New Invite / Configuring / Delivery Spreadsheet

 

[daniel]

Not Washington specifically, but west coast. According to the spreadsheet, one WA owner reserved in July 2017 with a delivery estimate of Nov 2017-Jan 2018. so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That's very odd. But I'm thinking the delivery estimates are pretty unreliable at this point. On the assumption that all owners in WA who reserved on Day 1 will be invited to configure before I am, and half or more (?) will choose First Production, and we're more than half way through January, I don't see how Tesla can possibly meet my delivery estimate window of Dec-Feb.

(I'm an owner and reserved on Day 2.)

I'm reverting to my earlier guess: I'll have my car before the end of June.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Yes. I checked this morning before posting. Are you saying there are Day-2 owners in WA (or even anywhere??) who have configured? It really would make no sense to allow Day-2 owners to configure before Day-1 owners in the same region. I know there are people in WA who have configured, but I'm sure they all reserved on Day 1.

According to the Google spreadsheet, there have been day 2 (and day 3) owner deliveries in CA, NJ, MD and VA.

 

[Waiting43]

CA deliveries might be saturated, but you also have giant parking lots where they can put cars. I don't think they have that have that anywhere else yet.

So they could send 100 cars to LA, and still have more room than sending 10 to NY

I think that's a distinction without a difference, since Tesla in any case isn't in the business of parking and storing cars, they're in the business of selling them. Once their delivery centers in CA can no longer get total daily production delivered, they need to send them elsewhere.

 

[chojn1]

I think Tesla will start with non-owner in California, but they will proceed quickly to non-owners in other states so there is a very small California advantage.

This is from the self reported spreadsheet data so far:

 

[chojn1]

My question is.... Is there a breakdown of car orders per state.... ?

Not quite sure what information you are looking for, but this is the reservations reported from Florida: