When will the Model Y be unveiled?

[11thIndian]

Everything we've heard semi-officially is that the Model Y has been designed in lock-step closely behind the Model 3, to maximize common parts and manufacturing. Very likely a good chunk of the engineering talent moved over to work on it after "Pencils Down" on Model 3 last Summer.

While the record reservations of the Model 3 may have changed the timetable a bit, I just can't imagine that Tesla's plan will be to hault all expansion of their lineup until Model 3 reaches a production equilibrium. There's going to be a glut of orders by the end of this year, but you don't plan your production capacity based on initial launch demand, but on longer term consistent demand for a product.

So with Tesla's production capacity plan to get to 500,000/yr during 2018 and then 1,000,000/yr sometime in 2020, plus whatever capacity is added by the European Gigafactory 2-- It makes sense to bleed in Model Y production as they expand, I'm betting sometime in 2019 as Fremont part 2 expansion starts opening up.

 

[electracity]

Everything we've heard semi-officially is that the Model Y has been designed in lock-step closely behind the Model 3.....

Have we really heard anything? I think the logic is that Musk was spanked hard for model X "launch" and will be more conservative with the model Y. But he is also talking about 3D factoring and tunnels under LA. So maybe he intends the model Y as another leap forward.

 

[11thIndian]

Elon saying that Model Y is the next production priority after Model 3 is the only official statement. The close ties between Model 3 and Model Y production are oft-repeated statement from Electrek. Where specifically Fred has sourced that info from I'm not sure.

 

[cdub]

Next week?

Elon Musk to reportedly share more info about the Tesla Model Y ‘next week’

 

[boaterva]

OMG.... The only thing better than two 3's would be a 3 and a Y. But good grief, these tweets and other trickles are torture!

 

[BluestarE3]

We'll see. Trying to divine too much by reading Elon's cryptic tea leaves (or are they tweet leaves?) can be risky. "Next week" could mean that next week he'll announce there's no information forthcoming about the Model Y this year.

Seems to make more sense waiting until after the Model 3 roll-out before saying anything about the Y, On the other hand, with approximately 400K reservations, a Y announcement can help "anti-sell" the 3 and take some of the pressure off Model 3 production ramp-up, since a sizable number of 3 reservation holders may opt to cancel/defer their reservations and wait for the Y instead.

 

[boaterva]

We'll see. Trying to divine too much by reading Elon's cryptic tea leaves (or are they tweet leaves?) can be risky. "Next week" could mean that next week he'll announce there's no information forthcoming about the Model Y this year.

Seems to make more sense waiting until after the Model 3 roll-out before saying anything about the Y, On the other hand, with approximately 400K reservations, a Y announcement can help "anti-sell" the 3 and take some of the pressure off Model 3 production ramp-up, since a sizable number of 3 reservation holders may opt to cancel/defer their reservations and wait for the Y instead.

I know... I would have put money on 'no Y traffic until after 3 deliveries'. But this and things like 'you won't care there's no speedo/display in front of you' [in the 3] just lend themselves to WTF thinking....

 

[McHoffa]

The Model X was unveiled four months before the first deliveries of the Model S (February and June 2012). Maybe we'll get a similar timeline for the Y, with an unveiling on March 30, four months before the first Model 3 deliveries in late July.

 

[11thIndian]

It's got to be a game of managing your assets. Based on Elon's tweet storm last week, it's clear they are doing everything possible from a production side to be able to ramp to their production targets, by eliminating the complexities from the initial run. If they'd have tried to provide all options at launch I think it would have crippled their chances.

I personally would not be surprised to see some kind of Model Y announcement and reservation program, with the intent to siphon off those Model 3 reservation holders who would rather have an cSUV anyway. No matter what they do, Tesla are going to be supply constrained until mid 2019, filling the staggered options for existing M3 reservations, as well as new ones that come in once the car launches properly.

Pushing off people to the Y only buys them time, and like the Model 3 gives them some brand lock-in as the other SUV competitors start to appear next year.

 

[ohmman]

Next week?

Elon Musk to reportedly share more info about the Tesla Model Y ‘next week’

He also tweeted this weekend that it'll happen "in a few years." So who the heck knows.

 

[11thIndian]

He also tweeted this weekend that it'll happen "in a few years." So who the heck knows.

At least with the timeframe of "Next week" we don't have to dangle too long to find out what he's talking about.

 

[Gwgan]

Maybe "no RWD" followed by twitterverse eruption prompted a classic Tesla rethink and now Model Y is really hefty M3 with AWD and is no longer a few years away. Corollary RWD M3 would not have towing ability either.

 

[djdimsum]

It's got to be a game of managing your assets. Based on Elon's tweet storm last week, it's clear they are doing everything possible from a production side to be able to ramp to their production targets, by eliminating the complexities from the initial run. If they'd have tried to provide all options at launch I think it would have crippled their chances.

I personally would not be surprised to see some kind of Model Y announcement and reservation program, with the intent to siphon off those Model 3 reservation holders who would rather have an cSUV anyway. No matter what they do, Tesla are going to be supply constrained until mid 2019, filling the staggered options for existing M3 reservations, as well as new ones that come in once the car launches properly.

Pushing off people to the Y only buys them time, and like the Model 3 gives them some brand lock-in as the other SUV competitors start to appear next year.

This makes sense. I am also thinking, if the demand is much greater for the Y they should increase production capacity for Model Y instead of the Model 3? I think Elon should show us the prototype of the Model Y, and start taking reservations. This would be a good way to gauge demand before ramping up the Fremont factory production.

 

[BluestarE3]

I am also thinking, if the demand is much greater for the Y would it make more sense to have more machines to build the Model Y instead of the Model 3?

The Y is still a "few years" out, so it wouldn't make sense to dedicate any current production capacity to it (it's nowhere ready to be built). On the other hand, the Model 3 is just around the corner and will require all the resources Tesla has available. Just for the sake of argument, if Tesla were to have excess manufacturing capacity, it should be building the AWD Model 3 instead.

 

[11thIndian]

This makes sense. I am also thinking, if the demand is much greater for the Y they should increase production capacity for Model Y instead of the Model 3? I think Elon should show us the prototype of the Model Y, and start taking reservations. This would be a good way to gauge demand before ramping up the Fremont factory production.

I've also thought that starting to take Model Y reservations would help them gauge relative demand vs the Model 3. While I don't think that the Model Y will figure in any meaningful way into Tesla's 500,000 vehicles per year goal in 2018 (S, X, and 3 will max that out completely), I think it will help them decide how much production capacity to allocate to Y vs 3 as they build out the Fremont factory to it's 2020 1,000,000 vehicles/yr goal.

The Y is still a "few years" out, so it wouldn't make sense to dedicate any current production capacity to it (it's nowhere ready to be built). On the other hand, the Model 3 is just around the corner and will require all the resources Tesla has available. Just for the sake of argument, if Tesla were to have excess manufacturing capacity, it should be building the AWD Model 3 instead.

For speed and efficiency, I don't think the Model 3 and Model Y will share production lines- I think they'll have to be dedicated. That in mind, if Tesla had the full 1,000,000 production capacity today, it wouldn't make sense to set it all up for Model 3. That's building capacity for the initial short term spike. Ultimately from a production standpoint- the question isn't how many Model 3's does Tesla need to make now, but longer term what's the sustained demand going to be.

If the Model Y ultimately ends up being the more popular vehicle, then Tesla would be smart to keep existing Fremont 500,000 capacity dedicated to Model 3, and use all the new capacity from the expansion for Model Y. So that very simplistically-

S&X gets 100,000/yr
Model 3 400,000/yr
Model Y 500,000/yr

but that's purely based on what demand ends up showing.

If demand continues to surge, you can bet Tesla will be trying to get that next Gigafactory up and running as soon as humanly possible.

 

[Sonny Daze]

What happened to the Model Y info this week? Oh, right, Elon time.

 

[boaterva]

It never actually existed. That later was corrected by Ars to be about Neuralink.

 

[11thIndian]

Yup. Too bad- but by correcting the non-news, Elon actually did give us news- saying that info about the Model Y shouldn't be expected until 2018. So that does at least give those of us waiting some timeline.

2018 announcement, 2019 production is still the most likely schedule at this point.

 

[timf]

I think the Model Y reveal will slot in between the semi and pickup, around this time next year.

 

[11thIndian]

I think the Model Y reveal will slot in between the semi and pickup, around this time next year.

I think that's a good bet. And honestly we can probably narrow the logical release window even further, if Tesla wants to continue to spread these major announcements out.

The Semi is in September, and the Pickup is "18-24 months way"- meaning between October 2018 and April 2019.

Plus we have Elon saying no Model Y news this year (besides anything that might come from conference/investor stuff OR tweetstorms). So yeah, anytime from the start of 2018 thru until the Fall seems pretty possible. By later this year we'll have a better idea of Gigafactory expansion plans- which obvious means more production capacity for additional vehicles beyond Fremont.

Question is will the Model Y require the same 16 month production ramp after unveiling that the Model 3 did, with all they've learned.