When will we be able to test drive?

[mbhforum]

Hi folks,

Reserved my M3 Friday morning as I am diving into the Tesla world. The timing of the release of the car works out perfect since I planned on selling my 2010 328xi and getting a new car around fall 2017 (my son's day care payments ends!). Anyway, I've never bought a car before without at least test driving it. Does anyone know before we commit to a purchase agreement, will we have the opportunity to see it in person?

I have complete faith I would love the car, but it's a large purchase to make without seeing/driving it in person. My initial instincts before the unveiling was to not purchase the car since I find my 328 rather small (I have 2 small kids) and was going to upgrade to a 5 series, but after hearing Elon describe the way they re-designed the interior to accommodate more room in the back, it sold me.

 

[Az_Rael]

If it works like past releases, you should be able to defer your order until you can test drive or see the car in person. You will be delaying your delivery date, but that would be understandable if you need to see how the car works for you before buying.

I believe for the Model X they had regional test drive events that reservation holders were invited to. I don't honestly know how that will play out with the 3, just because there are so many more of us. (How do you invite 300,000 people to test drive events?)

Just be aware that if you want your car early (2017/2018) timeframe, you will most likely have to commit to buying sight unseen/test driven. This might carry less risk than you assume, since if once you take delivery of the car, if you absolutely hate it, you should be able to turn around and sell it for very close what you paid if demand stays the way it is now.

 

[mbhforum]

If it works like past releases, you should be able to defer your order until you can test drive or see the car in person. You will be delaying your delivery date, but that would be understandable if you need to see how the car works for you before buying.

I believe for the Model X they had regional test drive events that reservation holders were invited to. I don't honestly know how that will play out with the 3, just because there are so many more of us. (How do you invite 300,000 people to test drive events?)

Just be aware that if you want your car early (2017/2018) timeframe, you will most likely have to commit to buying sight unseen/test driven. This might carry less risk than you assume, since if once you take delivery of the car, if you absolutely hate it, you should be able to turn around and sell it for very close what you paid if demand stays the way it is now.

Thanks! Really good point about turning it around easily. Although selling a car can be a hassle I probably will chance it based on Tesla's excellent reputation and early reviews. I read somewhere somebody 6'3'' sat comfortably in the backseat.

 

[Jason Bourne]

I think you could even sell it for more than you paid, if you hated it and sold it quickly. I firmly believe that by the time deliveries actually start, there will still be a ~18month waiting list. There will be plenty of people who will be willing to pay more than MSRP to avoid waiting.

But your main question was something I also wondered. I'm not sure there's an answer to that riddle. For regional test drive events like Az_Rael mentioned, I imagine they could do it in stages/groups. For example, renting the parking lot of your city's football stadium for 5 days and splitting up the city's reservation holders over 5 days.

 

[ummgood]

Plus I would add that you probably won't be that far up in the line if you didn't reserve until Friday. I would think you should be able to get to at least ride in one that is owned by one of the first people in line. I could be wrong about Tesla's ramp of production but by going by Elon's tweets if you reserved on Friday you have at least 150k people in front of you in line so at least some of those reservations will be seen in the wild prior to you needing to place an order. I was 100th in line in Austin at the store and I am fully preparing myself to be seeing cars on the road way before I can order. I am hoping they ramp quicker but I am also going to be patient

Another thing Tesla could do is schedule test drive events based on people's place in the reservation order. I wouldn't think based on the mass quantities that should be produced that they reserve 200 cars for the stores to do test drives in the US and ship them first (2 cars for each store). That would also help to debug the issues since the company is owning those cars anyway.

 

[LilWanFu]

I bought my current ICE relatively sight unseen. I had a general idea of what it was going to look like. The test drive once I showed up at the dealer sealed the deal for me. I would love to test drive a Model 3 but I can commit without it.

 

[Az_Rael]

Of course, it might all depend on the conversion rate they are getting from reservation holders to order confirmations as to how much effort they put into test drive events. I think the conversion rate might have been poor for the Model X, and so they worked harder to get folks into the cars to get actual sales. If the conversion rate on reservations for early 3 buyers is very good, they won't have to do that much work.

They will eventually get models in the showrooms, but that will be well after deliveries are going out, I would imagine.

This should actually be pretty interesting, as the general public is not used to buying cars without having test driven them or even seeing them in person, so I wonder what the conversion rate from reservation to actual purchase agreement will be once we are invited to configure our cars.

 

[RaWPower]

I betting on that Tesla having M3 Test Ride Events in late 2017/early 2018. Also, I recommend testing driving a Model S. The ride should be fairly similar with the exception of torgue.

 

[Chopr147]

I'm willing to commit without a test drive but would really like to get in it first. I am going from a big Yukon XL to a much smaller car, though I am relieved to hear of the roomy interior.

 

[physicsfita]

I think you could even sell it for more than you paid, if you hated it and sold it quickly. I firmly believe that by the time deliveries actually start, there will still be a ~18month waiting list. There will be plenty of people who will be willing to pay more than MSRP to avoid waiting.

But your main question was something I also wondered. I'm not sure there's an answer to that riddle. For regional test drive events like Az_Rael mentioned, I imagine they could do it in stages/groups. For example, renting the parking lot of your city's football stadium for 5 days and splitting up the city's reservation holders over 5 days.

I already have a co-worker who's offered to buy mine if I don't like it!

 

[mbhforum]

Plus I would add that you probably won't be that far up in the line if you didn't reserve until Friday. I would think you should be able to get to at least ride in one that is owned by one of the first people in line. I could be wrong about Tesla's ramp of production but by going by Elon's tweets if you reserved on Friday you have at least 150k people in front of you in line so at least some of those reservations will be seen in the wild prior to you needing to place an order. I was 100th in line in Austin at the store and I am fully preparing myself to be seeing cars on the road way before I can order. I am hoping they ramp quicker but I am also going to be patient

Another thing Tesla could do is schedule test drive events based on people's place in the reservation order. I wouldn't think based on the mass quantities that should be produced that they reserve 200 cars for the stores to do test drives in the US and ship them first (2 cars for each store). That would also help to debug the issues since the company is owning those cars anyway.

I forgot where I read this on here and it's not actually confirmed by Elon Musk, but it is believed that they can produce 50k cars a month. I estimate there was around 150k pre-orders before me but you have to remember a couple of things:

1. Not everyone who pre-ordered will actually buy one. Some people will be forced to get a newer car before then due to accident, theft, circumstance. Also, some people will simply change their minds. I would estimate this number to be around 25-35%. I have no facts to back this up though, just a wild guess.

2. The 150k before me is Worldwide, not just US based.

Based on the fact above, I don't think I am waiting 6 months, probably more like 2-3. I estimate I will have my M3 in Spring 2018.

 

[ummgood]

I forgot where I read this on here and it's not actually confirmed by Elon Musk, but it is believed that they can produce 50k cars a month. I estimate there was around 150k pre-orders before me but you have to remember a couple of things:

1. Not everyone who pre-ordered will actually buy one. Some people will be forced to get a newer car before then due to accident, theft, circumstance. Also, some people will simply change their minds. I would estimate this number to be around 25-35%. I have no facts to back this up though, just a wild guess.

2. The 150k before me is Worldwide, not just US based.

Based on the fact above, I don't think I am waiting 6 months, probably more like 2-3. I estimate I will have my M3 in Spring 2018.

True but I don't think they'll be producing 50k/month initially. They have to be able to ramp up production slower to work out bugs. I'm guessing the wise thing to do would be to go a bit slowly the first couple months and produce maybe 10k cars the first couple months so initial west coast buyers can see if there are any major issues. Once they know what they are dealing with then they'll really ramp up production. Another thing is there is probably some business sense in having the production match initial reservation quantities so they don't quickly ship all orders and then have a glut of time where no orders are coming in (if that ever will happen). It might be wise to plan on taking about 1.5 years to ship ALL reservations that come in between now and the initial production.

 

[MP3Mike]

I forgot where I read this on here and it's not actually confirmed by Elon Musk, but it is believed that they can produce 50k cars a month.

Elon has said that they should be able to produce ~500k cars per year. (GM/Toyota did in that factory.) That is only 41,666 cars/month.

At this point aren't they only at 1,000 Model Xs a week? I know the Model 3 will be easier/quicker to build, but there will be a ramp up period before they get to the 9,615 cars/week pace. (500k/year of combined S/X/3 production.)

So even at top production you are likely to only see 6,000 Model 3s a week, which would be almost a year at top production speed for reservations so far.

 

[ucmndd]

Elon has said that they should be able to produce ~500k cars per year. (GM/Toyota did in that factory.) That is only 41,666 cars/month.

At this point aren't they only at 1,000 Model Xs a week? I know the Model 3 will be easier/quicker to build, but there will be a ramp up period before they get to the 9,615 cars/week pace. (500k/year of combined S/X/3 production.)

So even at top production you are likely to only see 6,000 Model 3s a week, which would be almost a year at top production speed for reservations so far.

Well put.

Beyond that, I think the real concern is not so much the ability of the assembly facility to ramp up quickly, but the availability of parts in the entire supply chain. Most significantly, batteries. Doubling the world's lithium battery production in short order is a much harder problem than assembling vehicles at scale.

 

[arjay]

I like the idea of 200 cars owned by Tesla to go to the stores for de-bugging, test drives and ordering. At 1000+ per week that would only take one day of production out of the waiting list.

 

[Darryl]

Probably more than 95% of Tesla Model X owners had never seen or driven a Model X before they finalize their order. They still don't have Model X's at sales centers. I am sure it will be very similar for the Model 3.

 

[kort677]

short answer;
when tesla takes the model 3 from concept to reality

 

[ummgood]

Probably more than 95% of Tesla Model X owners had never seen or driven a Model X before they finalize their order. They still don't have Model X's at sales centers. I am sure it will be very similar for the Model 3.

You are probably right but it could be different... Now that they are trying to get more mainstream and not produce a limited supply high end car it might be valuable to start having the 3 in showrooms near the beginning of production. I believe that they'll want to keep interest high and have cars that people can come see. That way they can keep reservations coming in at high volumes while they produce cars on the wait list. If I was mass producing a car and it meant one day longer for customers to get their car so I could put 2 cars in every showroom I would probably do that.