When will we know the specs for the P-AWD Model 3?

[daniel]

This is an invitation to educated guesses, wild speculation, Revealed Truth, or what your brother-in-law's third cousin's 7th-grade teacher's neighbor heard from her mailman who knows a guy that works at Tesla:

When will we know the specs (especially the zero-to-sixty time) for the Performance AWD version of the Model 3? Will Tesla announce the numbers for the P-AWD when the configuration page is opened to the first reservation holders? Or at the time of the final reveal of the first production units? Or will there be a separate announcement when that trim line is closer to production, or not until it's ready to be delivered to the first buyers?

If anyone feels like it, guesses, speculation, etc., are also welcome regarding what the zero-to-sixty time will be. Especially, will it be quicker than a non-Sport Roadster or not? (My Roadster is non-Sport. I am anxious to find out if the 3 will be quicker than my Roadster.)

 

[EXOTIC1]

guess:
deliveries will start April 2018/ fastest P AWD version will be slightly under 3.75 sec 0-60
msrp slightly north of 72k

 

[Zaphod]

My WAG on the 0-60 is low 4s, upper 3 seconds.

 

[juanmedina]

They better show us the specs on the final reveal in July. We been waiting over a year; I hope they don't think that waiting almost two years for specs of the P and AWD versions is reasonable.

 

[Waiting4M3]

They better show us the specs on the final reveal in July. We been waiting over a year; I hope they don't think that waiting almost two years for specs of the P and AWD versions is reasonable.

I think Tesla should know the spec already by now. Personally I don't need the PxxD version, but for those waiting to get it some time in 2018, it would be nice to know the spec so they know what they're waiting for. However, since the PxxD version will likely be competing with performance versions of the C-class, 3-series, A4s, should Tesla give away the 0-60 detail 6+months ahead of time? For example, would BMW tell you their 2018 M3 0-60 now?

 

[Troy]

Hi. It's in Tesla's best interest not to release the specs until they are ready to produce the Model 3 D and P versions because ideally, they want to continue selling as many Model S cars as possible until they start making the Model 3 variants with higher profit margins.

Here are my predictions:

Performance:

• The Model 3 75D will have a lower 0-60 mph time than the Model S 75D's 5.2s.
• The Model 3 P75D 0-60 time will be 3.5 seconds or less.

EPA rated range:

• Model 3 55: 218 mi (351 km) for the Model 3 55
• Model 3 55D: 227 mi (366 km) for the Model 3 55D
• Model 3 75: 284 mi (458 km) for the Model 3 75
• Model 3 75D: 297 mi (477 km) for the Model 3 75D
• Model 3 P75D: 281 mi (453 km) for the Model 3 P75D

Production start dates:

My 2017 Model 3 production estimate = 45,468 units.

Most of my predictions are research based. You can check out my prediction success rate here. The related discussion topic is here.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My wild speculation would be 0-60 in about 3.5. Price...$68,000.

No way we see specs this July in my mind. They want to encourage people to take delivery of what they are building, aka big battery rear wheel drive. Giving dual motor Ludicrous specs at rollout would only encourage people to wait (which is what I am going to be doing regardless). I doubt we will hear anything about dual motor until the first of the year and Performance models not until March or April. Just my guess of course.

Dan

 

[FlatSix911]

Well done

It is in Tesla's best interest not to release the specs until they are ready to produce the Model 3 D and P versions because ideally, they want to continue selling as many Model S cars as possible until they start making the Model 3 variants with higher profit margins.

Here are my predictions:

Performance:

• The Model 3 75D will have a lower 0-60 mph time than the Model S 75D's 5.2s.
• The Model 3 P75D 0-60 time will be 3.5 seconds or less.

EPA rated range:

• Model 3 55: 218 mi (351 km) for the Model 3 55
• Model 3 55D: 227 mi (366 km) for the Model 3 55D
• Model 3 75: 284 mi (458 km) for the Model 3 75
• Model 3 75D: 297 mi (477 km) for the Model 3 75D
• Model 3 P75D: 281 mi (453 km) for the Model 3 P75D

Production start dates:

2017 Model 3 production = 45,468 units.

Check out my prediction success rate here. The related discussion topic is here.

 

[zenmaster]

guess:
deliveries will start April 2018/ fastest P AWD version will be slightly under 3.75 sec 0-60
msrp slightly north of 72k

May be worth it for $60k at most.

 

[kzod]

May be worth it for $60k at most.

Worth it? These aren't value propositions. Have you seen the premium that a P100D with ludicrous commands over a basic 100D? This isn't value. This is what do you want to answer when people ask you if your Tesla is Ludicrous or Fully self driving? This is about bragging rights.
Look I'm getting close to 50, getting a little softer in the middle and only have a full head of hair when I'm dreaming. Thankfully, I'm happily married to a hottie, and am well equipped so I'm pretty comfortable with myself. Not worth it to me, and perhaps not to you. But plenty of people want the bragging rights associated with owning the world's fastest high-tech car. This won't be the best value Tesla IMO, but it's a steal compared to a Lambo.

 

[bonnie]

We didn't get the specs for the X until after deliveries started. I started a Model X FAQ wiki on 12/27/15, after taking delivery of an X. No information was out there, so we did it ourselves.

 

[zenmaster]

Worth it? These aren't value propositions. Have you seen the premium that a P100D with ludicrous commands over a basic 100D? This isn't value. This is what do you want to answer when people ask you if your Tesla is Ludicrous or Fully self driving? This is about bragging rights.

Geez I hope is hasn't come to that. How awful and sad.

 

[Az_Rael]

But plenty of people want the bragging rights associated with owning the world's fastest high-tech car.

I could see this. People are always asking me if my P85 has Insane mode. (Weirdly, that's the one they all know about, not L). Owning one of the cars with Insane or Ludicrous mode is like owning a super car. Some folks will pay a lot for that privilege .

So, yeah, I expect the P premium to be painful for the 3.

 

[jsmay311]

No way we see specs this July in my mind. They want to encourage people to take delivery of what they are building, aka big battery rear wheel drive. Giving dual motor Ludicrous specs at rollout would only encourage people to wait (which is what I am going to be doing regardless).

I hope you're wrong.

IMO it would be nothing short of a betrayal of the early Model 3 reservation holders to not release all relevant specs for the known options in July (or whenever the time comes for the first orders to be placed).

Why? Those early reservation holders are going to be put in a position of having to choose between ordering one of the "simplified" early builds right away or delaying their order for a later build with more/different options (and possibly risk losing some of the tax credit in the process).

There would be no way for these early reservation holders to make an informed decision in this scenario without information about the options. To put your most loyal and enthusiastic customers in that position would be inexusable IMO.

 

[bonnie]

I hope you're wrong.

IMO it would be nothing short of a betrayal of the early Model 3 reservation holders to not release all relevant specs for the known options in July (or whenever the time comes for the first orders to be placed).

Why? Those early reservation holders are going to be put in a position of having to choose between ordering one of the "simplified" early builds right away or delaying their order for a later build with more/different options (and possibly risk losing some of the tax credit in the process).

There would be no way for these early reservation holders to make an informed decision in this scenario without information about the options. To put your most loyal and enthusiastic customers in that position would be inexusable IMO.

See my post, above (#11). The early Roadster owners, Model S owners, and Model X owners have all ordered without much information.

You're also forgetting that the first people ordering will be employees of Tesla and Space X. You're not going to be ordering in July. I'm fairly sure that by the time the configurator opens to the general public (including the first people in line), you'll have more information. And if you don't, delay placing your order until you have the information you need.

 

[boiler81]

There would be no way for these early reservation holders to make an informed decision in this scenario without information about the options.

I know Tesla not an average car company, but since when did anyone selling anything, care or even want an informed buyer. My guess is Tesla wants you to buy what they've got for sale today, whether that's a MS or their "limited options" initial M3 offerings.

That being said, I'd bet that the M3 P75DL will be quicker 0 to 60 than BMW M3, Audi S4, or Mercedes C63

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

We didn't get the specs for the X until after deliveries started. I started a Model X FAQ wiki on 12/27/15, after taking delivery of an X. No information was out there, so we did it ourselves.

Hi Bonnie!!!

 

[juanmedina]

See my post, above (#11). The early Roadster owners, Model S owners, and Model X owners have all ordered without much information.

You're also forgetting that the first people ordering will be employees of Tesla and Space X. You're not going to be ordering in July. I'm fairly sure that by the time the configurator opens to the general public (including the first people in line), you'll have more information. And if you don't, delay placing your order until you have the information you need.

You guys are forgetting that the model 3 demographic are different than the model S and model X people.

We are not as patient, we have high expectations, we are no as forgiving because we don't have the money just to seat around. I hope Tesla understand that.

 

[jbcarioca]

You guys are forgetting that the model 3 demographic are different than the model S and model X people.

We are not as patient, we have high expectations, we are no as forgiving because we don't have the money just to seat around. I hope Tesla understand that.

So far we really do not know the demographic distribution for Model 3 reservations. Model S, in particular, has a pretty unusual distribution for a vehicle in it's price range. There are modes of people with household incomes of <US$100,000 and a mode with HHI >US$1,000,000. There is also a mode of people who have never bought a new car >US$40,000 until the S. This data seems to show there is greater diversity in Tesla owner demographics than in any other new vehicle. Obviously, there is substantial question about the relevance of such data due to the highly unusual Tesla audience thus far.

Model 3 reservations are, I think, just as diverse as were S owners. Of course nobody knows for certain, not even a Tesla. Judging only by the people waiting in the first day queue at Miami Dadeland it seemed wildly diverse. There were several people who I know to be decimillonaires or more. There were schoolteachers, a restaurant waiter I knew and a fair number of students. Nobody knows for sure what that means.

I'm sure that the description you gave is characteristic of a substantial number of Modeln3 reservations, probably a higher proportion in later reservations. Among the earliest I think we're all pretty patient. After all we put down money when we really knew nothing other than the target base price, and we still have the reservations. That really seems patient to me. As for high expectations, about that I'm positive we all agree. We are not waiting (Im)patiently for anything mundane.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Hi. It's in Tesla's best interest not to release the specs until they are ready to produce the Model 3 D and P versions because ideally, they want to continue selling as many Model S cars as possible until they start making the Model 3 variants with higher profit margins.

Here are my predictions:

Performance:

• The Model 3 75D will have a lower 0-60 mph time than the Model S 75D's 5.2s.
• The Model 3 P75D 0-60 time will be 3.5 seconds or less.

EPA rated range:

• Model 3 55: 218 mi (351 km) for the Model 3 55
• Model 3 55D: 227 mi (366 km) for the Model 3 55D
• Model 3 75: 284 mi (458 km) for the Model 3 75
• Model 3 75D: 297 mi (477 km) for the Model 3 75D
• Model 3 P75D: 281 mi (453 km) for the Model 3 P75D

Production s

My 2017 Model 3 production estimate = 45,468 units.

Most of my predictions are research based. You can check out my prediction success rate here. The related discussion topic is here.

#16 was not correct. However 50% of the guesses being correct is notable.