Who has ordered?

[Ogre]

He gave a product roadmap.

• CT in 2023
• no 25K car on the horizon
• Optimus Sub-Prime and FSD are the next big thing
• Current model 3/Y ramp will continue to be the focal point, production dependent upon chips and batteries

He also started the meeting with something like, "Some stuff deserves its own launch so lets skip those things"

So, we'll have to wait for the CT's reveal of the latest version.

A detailed product unveil is the sort of thing that has never happened on an Earnings Call. Has it?

You are 100%.

I think the news cycle and lead up to the event gave people the impression there would be something meatier and maybe less *sugary*.

 

[aerodyne]

He gave a product roadmap.

• CT in 2023
• no 25K car on the horizon
• Optimus Sub-Prime and FSD are the next big thing
• Current model 3/Y ramp will continue to be the focal point, production dependent upon chips and batteries

He also started the meeting with something like, "Some stuff deserves its own launch so lets skip those things"

So, we'll have to wait for the CT's reveal of the latest version.

A detailed product unveil is the sort of thing that has never happened on an Earnings Call. Has it?

I think what makes me a bit salty is broken promises, like plaid in production in two weeks, FSD in 2020, and most recently, the tweet promising;

Production roadmap on the next earnings call...

 

[mspohr]

I think what makes me a bit salty is broken promises, like plaid in production in two weeks, FSD in 2020, and most recently, the tweet promising;

Production roadmap on the next earnings call...

He gave a production roadmap. He didn't say you would like it.

 

[Ogre]

I think a lot of people overlooked the comment about “Some stuff deserves it’s own launch”.

I’d find it truly odd if he were to announce another product while he has 3 sitting in the hopper as unfulfilled promises. So what merits a launch? Clearly he wasn’t referring to the Model 2.

Makes me wonder if the rumor about another Cybertruck event is true. Seems unlikely they would do it as soon as the rumor suggested, but later in the year when they have a better idea where Model Y production stands and can start looking at releasing new products again seems feasible.

 

[mspohr]

If you're waiting on a Cybertruck there is no way to come away from this earnings call as anything other than disappointed.

I don't necessarily "need" the Cybertruck this year, but I sure as hell "want" it...and even as a TSLA investor I don't give two shiats about Optimus.

Anywho, my advice to Elon is to stop tweeting about Govt. suppression and focus more on Tesla's mission statement.

Cybertruck and EVs are solved problems.
Elon is way ahead of everyone.

 

[aerodyne]

He gave a production roadmap. He didn't say you would like it.

I've seen lots of roadmaps for major programs.

Throwing out a production date sometime next year is not a roadmap.

 

[Ogre]

Here is the transcript (from The Motley Fool) of the Product Roadmap section.

Let's see, so on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call. So I'll talk kind of at a high level -- yeah, mostly at a high level.

The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think people do not -- a lot of people do not understand. So last year, we spent a lot of engineering and management resources solving supply chain issues, rewriting code, changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need, with chip drama central.

And there were not -- that was not the only supply chain issue, so -- just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result. But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, we would -- our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the constraints -- the chips constraints, particularly.

So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained.

We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars? So in terms of priority of products, I think the -- I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.

If you think about the economy, it is -- the foundation of the economy is labor. Capital equipment is distilled labor. So what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? I'm not sure what an economy even means at that point. That's what Optimus is about, so very important.

That’s quite a lot of words for “No Product Roadmap”. There are also some nuggets in there which I highlighted which I think are important and relevant to the Cybertruck.

 

[aerodyne]

Here is the transcript (from The Motley Fool) of the Product Roadmap section.



That’s quite a lot of words for “No Product Roadmap”. There are also some nuggets in there which I highlighted which I think are important and relevant to the Cybertruck.

Correct. A lot of words. No Milestones, no schedules, no hard dates.

 

[Ogre]

Correct. A lot of words. No Milestones, no schedules, no hard dates.

We’re talking about Tesla here.

Did you really expect schedules and hard dates?

 

[aerodyne]

We’re talking about Tesla here.

Did you really expect schedules and hard dates?

Yes...they are one of the most valuable companies in the world, who have opened some of the most complex modern factories in the world, mostly on schedule.

 

[EXOTIC1]

……. and hard dates usually = 1-3 years later

 

[lafrisbee]

I remember back when you'd have to get directions by stopping and asking someone because the road map did not have where you were going on it.
Most people learned you could get directions from the mechanic, not the kid that pumped your gas, or the well-intentioned lady who was getting a pop.
Elon's road map is as good as that lady's direction. Whatever she said was wrong. You will get even more lost listening to him.

 

[Ogre]

I remember back when you'd have to get directions by stopping and asking someone because the road map did not have where you were going on it.
Most people learned you could get directions from the mechanic, not the kid that pumped your gas, or the well-intentioned lady who was getting a pop.
Elon's road map is as good as that lady's direction. Whatever she said was wrong. You will get even more lost listening to him.

If you want a road map analogy.

Elon’s directions:

Drive that way for about a year. Eventually you’ll see a sign that says “Model Y wait list down to 1 month”. When you see it turn left and you’ll see the Cybertruck factory. You can pick up your truck then.

The directions work just fine. You just didn’t plan on driving that far and aren’t sure you have enough gas to get there.

 

[Kevrick]

Product road map is a very specific business process. Elon chose his words and failed to deliver. I'm not saying it's a red flag, but it certainly warrants some modicum of concern. I think he's trying to preserve reservation numbers. I'm in the "hardcore" category, as likely many here are, but there's a likelihood that many reservations simply ask for their deposit back which will cause a PR nightmare.

 

[HellsKitchen]

Product road map is a very specific business process. Elon chose his words and failed to deliver. I'm not saying it's a red flag, but it certainly warrants some modicum of concern. I think he's trying to preserve reservation numbers. I'm in the "hardcore" category, as likely many here are, but there's a likelihood that many reservations simply ask for their deposit back which will cause a PR nightmare.

I wonder if they saw a jump in orders for their other models after the CT (non)news. I, for one, pulled the trigger on a Y the very next day.

 

[Ogre]

Product road map is a very specific business process. Elon chose his words and failed to deliver. I'm not saying it's a red flag, but it certainly warrants some modicum of concern. I think he's trying to preserve reservation numbers. I'm in the "hardcore" category, as likely many here are, but there's a likelihood that many reservations simply ask for their deposit back which will cause a PR nightmare.

Think about who you are talking about here.

You are applying “Business School Rules” to a guy who refuses to hire business school graduates.

You aren’t going to see a Gantt chart coming out of one of Tesla’s meetings. Ford and GM Management I’m sure will deliver on your business school expectations every time. That’s not Tesla.

 

[Ogre]

I wonder if they saw a jump in orders for their other models after the CT (non)news. I, for one, pulled the trigger on a Y the very next day.

I pulled the trigger on my Model Y back in February when I realized it was still a long ways out. I’m sure a lot more people are pulling the trigger now.

 

[aerodyne]

Think about who you are talking about here.

You are applying “Business School Rules” to a guy who refuses to hire business school graduates.

You aren’t going to see a Gantt chart coming out of one of Tesla’s meetings. Ford and GM Management I’m sure will deliver on your business school expectations every time. That’s not Tesla.

A publicly traded company needs to communicate clearly with it's shareholders, many of whom don't know or use Gantt charts, but have a need to know important dates such as start of production, first deliveries etc.

Do you think the giga factories were built without using Project or MRP or any type of resource planning to identify critical paths and yet stay within budget? AND beat schedule?

Here is a more likely scenario. CT and Roadster II will never happen, but were, and are highly effective in scaring the sugar out of high performance car and truck mfg to drop all ICE development and go all electric.

39k for a lightning? No coincidence I think...

 

[Ogre]

A publicly traded company needs to communicate clearly with it's shareholders, many of whom don't know or use Gantt charts, but have a need to know important dates such as start of production, first deliveries etc.

Do you think the giga factories were built without using Project or MRP or any type of resource planning to identify critical paths and yet stay within budget? AND beat schedule?

I haven’t seen any other Technokings act that way. Why should Musk?

Maybe if Musk was comfortable being a CEO he would conform to these standards you expect him to.

I’m sure Tesla uses plenty of project management tools getting things done. That doesn’t mean Musk uses them or thinks and communicates in those terms.

Here is a more likely scenario. CT and Roadster II will never happen, but were, and are highly effective in scaring the sugar out of high performance car and truck mfg to drop all ICE development and go all electric.

39k for a lightning? No coincidence I think...

I’m sure the Lightning is priced how it is and was released when it was is due 100% to the Cybertruck. I’m equally certain that is part of why Tesla hit the truck market with as aggressive of a release as they did.

I‘m quite certain Tesla is planning on releasing the Cybertruck. Along with vehicles for almost every vehicle segment. Do you think they plan on continuing for the next 10+ years with a 2 vehicle portfolio?

 

[aerodyne]

I haven’t seen any other Technokings act that way. Why should Musk?

Maybe if Musk was comfortable being a CEO he would conform to these standards you expect him to.

I’m sure Tesla uses plenty of project management tools getting things done. That doesn’t mean Musk uses them or thinks and communicates in those terms.



I’m sure the Lightning is priced how it is and was released when it was is due 100% to the Cybertruck. I’m equally certain that is part of why Tesla hit the truck market with as aggressive of a release as they did.

I‘m quite certain Tesla is planning on releasing the Cybertruck. Along with vehicles for almost every vehicle segment. Do you think they plan on continuing for the next 10+ years with a 2 vehicle portfolio?

I'm sure there will be some CT's built, maybe thousands, if only to keep the pressure on the other OEMs. But enough to fill my order 50k reservations deep? Not counting on it. Plus you know how they treat early orders these days..

If the other OEMs drop the ball, and revisited the Bolt fiasco, Tesla can raise CT prices. If they succeed, Tesla can compete with a MY varient (Think Truckla)

My only point is for CT orders, better not count on the vehicle you ordered anytime soon based on that earnings call...