Will My New Model 3 Be Worth The Same As A Honda Civic In 6 Years?

[neroden]

So somebody was willing to buy your 16 month old LR RWD with 20k miles for $36k when they could have gotten a brand new one for $40k. That's an amazingly low amount of depreciation.

Yep. This is how you have to actually figure the depreciation. Once the tax credits go away and the new Tesla prices stabilize, it'll be clearer.

 

[rickjames]

Even first year depreciation of 25% is higher than average. Federal credit WAS 7500. As active duty military I only received 4400 because 50% of my pay is tax free. Given the income requirements, I imagine alot of non military buyers also did not receive the full 7500. But that's not the point. The credit now is 3750, and the vehicle price did not drop exactly 3750 comparably equipped. The vehicle with EAP, and loaded was 57500. I purchased FSD after for 2k. It costs 6k now. So that theoretical LR RWD you put at around 45k was actually 51k with same configuration.

 

[20140emission]

I just traded a 2014 MS 85 with first gen AP and 53,000 on the odo for a 19 M3 LRAWD. Tesla offered $30K and CarMax offered $28K. I think Tesla will never beat the resale value of a Japanese car. I used to drive Bimmers and their resale value is horrible. I think that goes for all European cars because of high parts and maintenance cost. However, the repair cost (not warranty repair) but other repairs such as body work or electronics beyond the warranty period can be very high for Tesla since there is not independent repair shops that can do non-body repair works. What is also surprising to me is my insurance did not drop when my MS got old (4.5 yo) and when I try to insure the new M3, it costs more. I cannot figure out why.

 

[Knightshade]

I just traded a 2014 MS 85 with first gen AP and 53,000 on the odo for a 19 M3 LRAWD. Tesla offered $30K and CarMax offered $28K. I think Tesla will never beat the resale value of a Japanese car. I used to drive Bimmers and their resale value is horrible. I think that goes for all European cars because of high parts and maintenance cost. However, the repair cost (not warranty repair) but other repairs such as body work or electronics beyond the warranty period can be very high for Tesla since there is not independent repair shops that can do non-body repair works. What is also surprising to me is my insurance did not drop when my MS got old (4.5 yo) and when I try to insure the new M3, it costs more. I cannot figure out why.

Statistically, Tesla beats everyone in resale value in its class- japanese makers included.

But again that's not going by Tesla trade-in offers but actual transaction prices of used cars being sold.

Let's Look Into The Resale Value Of A Tesla Model S

or

Tesla Model S and X Vehicles Boast Superior Resale Value -- The Motley Fool


Beating not just a bunch of german lux cars, but Lexus and Jaguar too.

 

[DJVoorhees]

BMW's and Mercedes resale value is terrible, once they are out of warranty you can pick them up dirt cheap. a Tesla has much mroe robust resale value than any BMW or Mercedes. Even the older Model S's are still 40k+ cars, compare that to any 2012 or 2013 BMW 3 or 5, it's not even close.

 

[raptor5244]

Except that your car wasn't really sold to you for $57500. You received $10,000 in federal tax credits. So that's really $47,500 to $36,000 or 25% depreciation.

Also, the price of the car has dropped greatly since then. An LR RWD bought a month ago (you can't buy them now) was $45900. That's $39650 to the end customer after tax credits in california (but before sales tax. ignoring sales tax since you have to pay that whether you buy a car new or used).

So somebody was willing to buy your 16 month old LR RWD with 20k miles for $36k when they could have gotten a brand new one for $40k. That's an amazingly low amount of depreciation.

Well stated. If you want to be one of the first one the block to drive a new vehicle that is in high demand then you need to prepare to pay the price. Be happy you got federal tax credit assistance. Mustang GT350s have addendums, even Honda Civic Type Rs sold for $10k over MSRP, a gussied up Civic!. The new C8 Corvette will be released soon and I am sure that will have $10-20k markups as well. Two years later, they will have incentives on them.

Now that the tax credits are phasing out and they have stabilized the pricing somewhat we should get a better sense of depreciation moving forward. IMO, at ~$40k for an SR+ considering what you get is pretty compelling when compared to the competition. Is there really isn't any competition at this point? I mean who wants to drive this when you can have a Telsa M3?

 

[googlepeakoil]

Teslas have held their value pretty well over the years. But as for what the Model 3 will be worth in six years - who knows.

I will predict that a Model 3 LR RWD, black, 18” wheels without AP or FSD will depreciate less as a percentage than a Performance Model 3 with paint/wheel upgrades and FSD. Options depreciate down to almost nothing in the used market. So if you want your car to hold it’s value best go for a stripped down model. If that doesn’t suit you then just know that whatever you pay for options will be almost a complete loss on resale.

FSD - I'm not sure - but is that not tied to you and not the car? Fred and other bloke were wondering if the car came up for resale would they not delete FSD and sell it a 2nd time to the 2nd buyer! As it's purely software Tesla could do that! AP now seems to be standard so that shouldn't happen to AP.
I imagine the biggest feature to have will be LR followed by AWD. The performance won't be worth much probably. Look at the old model S's - the performance versions people were paying a $10-20k premium for are about the same 0-60 as the AWD Model S's coming out the factory now!
I'd also predict the car to be about $15-17k - have lost 55-60%. In the UK currently 2nd hand electric cars are worth in some cases more than new ones due to the long waiting list! 15months on the Kona and ENiro!

 

[tomas]

FSD - I'm not sure - but is that not tied to you and not the car? Fred and other bloke were wondering if the car came up for resale would they not delete FSD and sell it a 2nd time to the 2nd buyer! As it's purely software Tesla could do that! AP now seems to be standard so that shouldn't happen to AP.
I imagine the biggest feature to have will be LR followed by AWD. The performance won't be worth much probably. Look at the old model S's - the performance versions people were paying a $10-20k premium for are about the same 0-60 as the AWD Model S's coming out the factory now!
I'd also predict the car to be about $15-17k - have lost 55-60%. In the UK currently 2nd hand electric cars are worth in some cases more than new ones due to the long waiting list! 15months on the Kona and ENiro!

No. FSD purchase is for life of car.

 

[Knightshade]

No. FSD purchase is for life of car.

Kind of.

If you resell privately FSD goes with the car.

If you trade it in to Tesla there's nothing at all preventing them from deleting it and then selling it to the next owner at "full price"

I've no idea if they DO that, but they could.


Actually in thinking more on it....there MIGHT be a reason they can't for SOME cars... if it was bought pre-purchase it might be on the original Monroney sticker (this seems hit and miss depending how pre-delivery you bought it) so maybe they can't legally remove it at that point from those specific ones? Not sure. (Not that Tesla hasn't already broken the law a ton of times regarding Monroney stickers, seemingly with nobody caring)

 

[OCR1]

If you trade it in to Tesla there's nothing at all preventing them from deleting it and then selling it to the next owner at "full price"

Theoretically it shouldn’t really matter. If they delete FSD a potential buyer will expect to pay less for it than if they leave it in place. And they still have to compete with private sale Model 3’s and new Model 3’s. So I’m not sure if it really benefits Tesla to remove FSD unless they can’t get what they want for the car and use it as a negotiating tactic to remove FSD and lower the price.

 

[Knightshade]

Theoretically it shouldn’t really matter. If they delete FSD a potential buyer will expect to pay less for it than if they leave it in place. And they still have to compete with private sale Model 3’s and new Model 3’s. So I’m not sure if it really benefits Tesla to remove FSD unless they can’t get what they want for the car and use it as a negotiating tactic to remove FSD and lower the price.

If they include it they'd be getting less for it than the "new" FSD price- so based on that thinking it's more profitable to sell it without and make it available for sale later.

Of course that'd depend on if the buyer WANTS FSD or not too- if they don't want it too badly they might still suck it up and pay 1-2k more for a used car that has it but would never pay 6k for it new.

 

[OCR1]

If they include it they'd be getting less for it than the "new" FSD price- so based on that thinking it's more profitable to sell it without and make it available for sale later.

Of course that'd depend on if the buyer WANTS FSD or not too- if they don't want it too badly they might still suck it up and pay 1-2k more for a used car that has it but would never pay 6k for it new.

Yes, that would be my thought process if I was buying a used Model 3. Paying full price of $6K for FSD when I’m buying the car for maybe 60% of the price of a new one would not make sense to me but if I could get it for two or three thousand dollars extra I’d probably just go for it.

 

[tomas]

Theoretically it shouldn’t really matter. If they delete FSD a potential buyer will expect to pay less for it than if they leave it in place. And they still have to compete with private sale Model 3’s and new Model 3’s. So I’m not sure if it really benefits Tesla to remove FSD unless they can’t get what they want for the car and use it as a negotiating tactic to remove FSD and lower the price.

But they don’t delete it. Somebody posts a wildly incorrect “I heard that...” message and suddenly we are careening into discussion of it.