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Will My New Model 3 Be Worth The Same As A Honda Civic In 6 Years?

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You also have to take into account the earlier 3's with the full Federal tax credit available. That immediately changes the resale value by the amount of the tax credit. Your out of pocket expense for the car (assuming you can use the full credit) is much lower than what you paid for it. Now that the Federal credit is gone, the actual depreciation (out of pocket vs. resale) on the older cars is lower than a non tax credit model. This skews the normal depreciation curve.

Actually the Federal Credit is still there. It was cut in half from $7500 to $3750 up until June 30th. It Gets cut in half again to $1875 on July 1st and goes away completely at the end of this year or Dec 31. There is also a $2500 cash back, if you live in California and meet a certain income level, Also PG&E rebate is at $800 now. So all in all decent rebates.
 
I'm pretty sure once these cars start having issues with the hardware and electronics, they will be pretty much scrap value. I have a sneaking suspicion Tesla is going to operate a lot like apple and other technology companies by following a schedule of planned obsolescence. Sooner or later the older cars will no longer be supported, like windows XP.
 
I'm pretty sure once these cars start having issues with the hardware and electronics, they will be pretty much scrap value. I have a sneaking suspicion Tesla is going to operate a lot like apple and other technology companies by following a schedule of planned obsolescence. Sooner or later the older cars will no longer be supported, like windows XP.

Most product are like that now. Appliances are throw away, TVs, etc. At least with the Tesla they can extend the life a bit through software updates. Then when you need more CPU or memory to run later versions of software 5 years from now maybe it will be upgradeable.
 
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Most product are like that now. Appliances are throw away, TVs, etc. At least with the Tesla they can extend the life a bit through software updates. Then when you need more CPU or memory to run later versions of software 5 years from now maybe it will be upgradeable.

this was one reason I didn't buy a CPO S AP1 @ the same price as 3. The MCU is upgradeable and the cameras are there in the 3. Hopefully my modular bet will work out in X years (maybe 2 yrs for the Y SR!)
 
this was one reason I didn't buy a CPO S AP1 @ the same price as 3. The MCU is upgradeable and the cameras are there in the 3. Hopefully my modular bet will work out in X years (maybe 2 yrs for the Y SR!)


That's EXACTLY the situation I was in, I really wanted a model S for the luxury, but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger because of my previous post. I obviously ended up with a new model 3.
 
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That's EXACTLY the situation I was in, I really wanted a model S for the luxury, but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger because of my previous post. I obviously ended up with a new model 3.

I hope it's "great minds think alike" I do disagree about the apple analogy, b/c with them it's intentional. Tesla is more like Amazon/google they're not making a lot on hardware (esp the SR)
 
I don't know, in 6 years maybe other cars will have features tesla has now, but who knows? Even 6 year old S has more tech than most cars.

I think Tesla has shaken the industry to the point where all the auto manufacturers have woken up. The challenge for just about all of them is that they need to cannibalize a lot of their existing business, which is based on ICE vehicles that create huge revenue streams for dealers when it comes to service. If EVs require less maintenance then those $40-$80 oil changes, air cleaners, brake pads, fuel injector cleaning, coolant and trans flushes and so on go away or are dramatically reduced. This creates a huge problem for the dealer networks as they need that service revenue to survive since there is not a lot of profit in new cars sales nowadays.

The buying experience from Tesla may not be perfect but just think about your last car "stealership" buying experience. If you have had car buying experiences like me over the years it usually involves a gaggle of sales folks hanging out under a tent like vulchers eyeing your every movement waiting to attack as you pull into the dealership. You quickly find out that as buyers we tend to know more about the vehicles then the sales staff. If you actually make it to the next stage where you agree to start getting some sales figures they will take the keys to your potential trade-in. By the way, you are now held captive so don't plan on getting those keys back until you have been negotiating for at least a couple hours. At this point if you are close on the numbers you will get a visit from the sales manager, which 9 times out of 10 is a guy wearing way too much jewelry and he is going to ask something like, "what do we have to do to get you in this vehicle today?" At this point, you may have not eaten any food in about 5 hours and are either ready to walk or cave. So eventually, if you want the car bad enough you shake hands on the deal and just when you think you have had enough you make your way to the finance department. This is where the real fun begins as you begin to hear about the 18 different warranty and protection packages. After repeatedly saying no thanks about 20 times, if you are not paying cash it is time to move on to financing or lease terms and your are about to learn about interest rates/money factors and how much dealers jack them up to boost profits. But don't worry the first oil change is on us.

I bought two Teslas over the past two months and I did everything online ahead of time including trade-ins, walked in on delivery day and 20-30 minutes later drove away. That is mind blowing when compared to the buying experience at other manufacturers dealerships.
 
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I think Tesla has shaken the industry to the point where all the auto manufacturers have woken up. The challenge for just about all of them is that they need to cannibalize a lot of their existing business, which is based on ICE vehicles that create huge revenue streams for dealers when it comes to service. If EVs require less maintenance then those $40-$80 oil changes, air cleaners, brake pads, fuel injector cleaning, coolant and trans flushes and so on go away or are dramatically reduced. This creates a huge problem for the dealer networks as they need that service revenue to survive since there is not a lot of profit in new cars sales nowadays.

The buying experience from Tesla may not be perfect but just think about your last car "stealership" buying experience. If you have had car buying experiences like me over the years it usually involves a gaggle of sales folks hanging out under a tent like vulchers eyeing your every movement waiting to attack as you pull into the dealership. You quickly find out that as buyers we tend to know more about the vehicles then the sales staff. If you actually make it to the next stage where you agree to start getting some sales figures they will take the keys to your potential trade-in until. By the way, you are now held captive so don't plan on getting those keys back until you have been negotiating for at least a couple hours. At this point if you are close on the numbers you will get a visit from the sales manager, which 9 times out of 10 is a guy wearing way too much jewelry and he is going to ask something like, "what do we have to do to get you in this vehicle today?" At this point, you may have not eaten any food in about 5 hours and are either ready to walk or cave. So eventually, if you want the car bad enough you shake hands on the deal and just when you think you have had enough you make your way to the finance department. This is where the real fun begins as you begin to hear about the 18 different warranty and protection packages. After repeatedly saying no thanks about 20 times, if you are not paying cash it is time to move on to financing or lease terms and your are about to learn about interest rates/money factors and how much dealers jack them up to boost profits. But don't worry the first oil change is on us.

I bought two Teslas over the past two months and I did everything online ahead of time including trade-ins, walked in on delivery day and 20-30 minutes later drove away. That is mind blowing when compared to the buying experience at other manufacturers dealerships.
Yep, IMO those things have allot to do with the podcast below. Good stuff!
Planned Obsolescence: Engine of the Consumer Economy
 
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The buying experience from Tesla may not be perfect but just think about your last car "stealership" buying experience.

Ok.

I emailed 6 different dealers internet sales dept, and told them "I am ready to buy Car X, with options Y, for cash. It will need to be a special ordered since nobody has these in inventory and I'm not interested in any other config, and I'm willing to pay Z dollars for it.

If you will make this deal please let me know"


One of them did, they ordered the car, didn't require a penny up front, they kept me well informed through the whole process, and a couple months later I set foot in the dealership for the first time to take delivery of the exact thing I ordered in perfect condition exactly when they originally said I would.



So... a ton better buying experience than I had with Tesla where I had to put $1000 down for a slot to place an order, another $2500 2 years later when I was actually allowed to order, optioning was far more limited, I was lied to probably 30 times by 8 different people throughout the process, and my delivery date changed half a dozen times... then when I did pick it up it was missing several things (including one of the keycards) and the Monroney sticker was wrong (and not attached to the car- both of which are federal crimes BTW)


The car was excellent in both cases.

But the buying experience was far worse with Tesla.



If you have had car buying experiences like me over the years it usually involves a gaggle of sales folks hanging out under a tent like vulchers eyeing your every movement waiting to attack as you pull into the dealership.

So that's your first mistake.

You don't step into the dealership until the day you're picking up your new car, for which you've already agreed on a complete deal in advance.


You quickly find out that as buyers we tend to know more about the vehicles then the sales staff.

Now that is universally true.

In the story I mentioned above for the non-Tesla several folks who emailed me back hadn't even been aware you could order a car optioned the way I requested.

Tesla seems worse here too though because besides the sales people knowing virtually nothing about the product they seem to know nothing about the process and continually give unclear, uncertain, or outright false answers to customers as a result of terrible internal communications and lack of clearly defined policies.



If you actually make it to the next stage where you agree to start getting some sales figures they will take the keys to your potential trade-in. By the way, you are now held captive so don't plan on getting those keys back until you have been negotiating for at least a couple hours.

Yeah- that's another rookie mistake.

You don't even mention a trade in until you have a price for the car. In cash.

Price of the car should have nothing, at all, to do with the trade in. Don't let them connect the two.

(this assumes it's worth trading in vs private sale- often not the case but YMMV)



At this point if you are close on the numbers you will get a visit from the sales manager, which 9 times out of 10 is a guy wearing way too much jewelry and he is going to ask something like, "what do we have to do to get you in this vehicle today?"


Oh, I see the problem.

You go in there as if it's a negotiation.

it's not.

Especially in the internet age you know exactly what the car cost the dealer. You know exactly what the typical real-world transaction price on the car is. You know how in demand the car is or not.

Which is why you already know the amount you will pay for the car, including a small profit for the dealer in exchange for him having to do 0 actual work.


"I want exactly car X, at exactly price Y, and I have cash, today, for it. I've sent this message to all local dealers, whoever accepts my price first gets a no-effort sale. Let me know"


At this point, you may have not eaten any food in about 5 hours and are either ready to walk or cave.

I can't tell if this is a comedy or a drama.... maybe both....


So eventually, if you want the car bad enough you shake hands on the deal and just when you think you have had enough you make your way to the finance department.


Oh good lord... speaking of rookie mistakes.

Mistake 1- showing up in person without already having a done deal for a fixed price.

Mistake 2- Letting them convince you a trade has any bearing on the price of the new car.

Mistake 3- Not already having your own financing lined up before you show up. Your own financing is cash to the dealer. (I mean, ideally you're paying cash anyway, but the point remains). You tell them you are paying cash. Also thanks to the internet you know in advance what rates a dealership is offering generally too in case it's better....

If relevant, day of pickup you can tell them "I planned to pay cash, but if you have any incentive that's better for me to finance with you, what is it?"

Occasionally they have something where because they get kickbacks for financing they'll take another few bucks off the car if you finance or something. So if it's worth doing, great. Otherwise just stick to your already arranged option.


This is where the real fun begins as you begin to hear about the 18 different warranty and protection packages.


So Mistake 4- Not already knowing what's available and if you want any of it before you even walked in.

This way you can tell them "Stop right there- I'm interested in X" (X may be none of the above- usually the case as you can usually get factory ext. warranties cheaper elsewhere.

If they don't take that answer, the very first time, you tell them you are leaving if they don't move on. They'll move right on.

Unless you're buying some INCREDIBLY RARE CAR you have 100% of the power in this deal

And you're acting like the exact opposite at every step of this process.


if you are not paying cash it is time to move on to financing or lease terms and your are about to learn about interest rates/money factors and how much dealers jack them up to boost profits.

If you are just, now at this stage of buying a car, learning about those things, you probably shouldn't be buying a car.

Again you should already have financing lined up before you even walked in.

And know if they'll be able to offer anything better or not too.


I bought two Teslas over the past two months and I did everything online ahead of time including trade-ins, walked in on delivery day and 20-30 minutes later drove away. That is mind blowing when compared to the buying experience at other manufacturers dealerships.


It's mind blowing compared to the Tesla experience thousands of folks have posted about on here that isn't anywhere near that smooth.

So congrats on that.
 
I just sold my 2013 Mercedes C250 Sedan and bought a new Model 3 SR+ last week. My Mercedes was 6 years old and originally stickered at $42,935. I sold it for $10,000. This got me to thinking so I decided to compare the value of my 6 year-old Mercedes with a 6 year-old Honda Civic EX-L Sedan using the same mileage, condition, etc. I have uploaded copies of the online appraisals for these two cars from Edmunds TMV website. Bottom Line: My $42,000 Mercedes had a trade-in value of $8,513 and the Civic had a trade-in value of $8,334. I consider my new Model 3 to be comparable to the Mercedes C250 I just sold.View attachment 422386 View attachment 422387

So the question of the day: Will my 2019 Tesla Model 3 SR+ be worth the same as a nice Honda Civic EX Sedan in 6 years? Why, or why not?
Drive a Honda Civic for 6 years. I’ll drive the Tesla. Let’s see who has more fun.
 
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But the buying experience was far worse with Tesla.

Agreed, we have bought three Teslas and it’s terrible every time. Buying my 3 was the best experience, but only because I knew the pitfalls from the previous purchases and was able to head off the issues before they started.

Best car buying experience I had was actually picking up a used truck at Carmax. Picked the truck from their website, pricing was transparent, they answered all my questions about the condition, so I had it shipped to my local CarMax. I showed up once it was in and test drove the truck (which Tesla wouldn’t let me do when I bought used from them), paid them for the truck and drove off with it. No hassles. Sure, you can squeeze better deals on used cars elsewhere, but their buying experience is so easy - it is more like what Teslas should be.
 
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Ok.

I emailed 6 different dealers internet sales dept, and told them "I am ready to buy Car X, with options Y, for cash. It will need to be a special ordered since nobody has these in inventory and I'm not interested in any other config, and I'm willing to pay Z dollars for it.

If you will make this deal please let me know"


One of them did, they ordered the car, didn't require a penny up front, they kept me well informed through the whole process, and a couple months later I set foot in the dealership for the first time to take delivery of the exact thing I ordered in perfect condition exactly when they originally said I would.



So... a ton better buying experience than I had with Tesla where I had to put $1000 down for a slot to place an order, another $2500 2 years later when I was actually allowed to order, optioning was far more limited, I was lied to probably 30 times by 8 different people throughout the process, and my delivery date changed half a dozen times... then when I did pick it up it was missing several things (including one of the keycards) and the Monroney sticker was wrong (and not attached to the car- both of which are federal crimes BTW)


The car was excellent in both cases.

But the buying experience was far worse with Tesla.





So that's your first mistake.

You don't step into the dealership until the day you're picking up your new car, for which you've already agreed on a complete deal in advance.




Now that is universally true.

In the story I mentioned above for the non-Tesla several folks who emailed me back hadn't even been aware you could order a car optioned the way I requested.

Tesla seems worse here too though because besides the sales people knowing virtually nothing about the product they seem to know nothing about the process and continually give unclear, uncertain, or outright false answers to customers as a result of terrible internal communications and lack of clearly defined policies.





Yeah- that's another rookie mistake.

You don't even mention a trade in until you have a price for the car. In cash.

Price of the car should have nothing, at all, to do with the trade in. Don't let them connect the two.

(this assumes it's worth trading in vs private sale- often not the case but YMMV)






Oh, I see the problem.

You go in there as if it's a negotiation.

it's not.

Especially in the internet age you know exactly what the car cost the dealer. You know exactly what the typical real-world transaction price on the car is. You know how in demand the car is or not.

Which is why you already know the amount you will pay for the car, including a small profit for the dealer in exchange for him having to do 0 actual work.


"I want exactly car X, at exactly price Y, and I have cash, today, for it. I've sent this message to all local dealers, whoever accepts my price first gets a no-effort sale. Let me know"




I can't tell if this is a comedy or a drama.... maybe both....





Oh good lord... speaking of rookie mistakes.

Mistake 1- showing up in person without already having a done deal for a fixed price.

Mistake 2- Letting them convince you a trade has any bearing on the price of the new car.

Mistake 3- Not already having your own financing lined up before you show up. Your own financing is cash to the dealer. (I mean, ideally you're paying cash anyway, but the point remains). You tell them you are paying cash. Also thanks to the internet you know in advance what rates a dealership is offering generally too in case it's better....

If relevant, day of pickup you can tell them "I planned to pay cash, but if you have any incentive that's better for me to finance with you, what is it?"

Occasionally they have something where because they get kickbacks for financing they'll take another few bucks off the car if you finance or something. So if it's worth doing, great. Otherwise just stick to your already arranged option.





So Mistake 4- Not already knowing what's available and if you want any of it before you even walked in.

This way you can tell them "Stop right there- I'm interested in X" (X may be none of the above- usually the case as you can usually get factory ext. warranties cheaper elsewhere.

If they don't take that answer, the very first time, you tell them you are leaving if they don't move on. They'll move right on.

Unless you're buying some INCREDIBLY RARE CAR you have 100% of the power in this deal

And you're acting like the exact opposite at every step of this process.




If you are just, now at this stage of buying a car, learning about those things, you probably shouldn't be buying a car.

Again you should already have financing lined up before you even walked in.

And know if they'll be able to offer anything better or not too.





It's mind blowing compared to the Tesla experience thousands of folks have posted about on here that isn't anywhere near that smooth.

So congrats on that.


I was obviously generalizing some things that folks experience during a car buying experience. You pointed out a lot of “rookie mistakes”. I wasn’t looking for advice, I know how the game is played and that is precisely what makes the car buying experience so frustrating for potential buyers. They essentially have to fear the dealership so get your game face on. Like you say, don’t step foot in there until you have x, y and z lined up and that is one of the big reasons why if you ask people most will say they hate buying the car buying process and can’t stand dealerships. You have to be ready to play the game and all the drama that comes with it. It sounds like you and I have some experience doing this but think about the 25 year old that walks in to the dealership for the first time.

I am just pointing out that a lot of the drama and back and forth negotiating process is eliminated with the Tesla buying process. You can sit on your computer and complete 95% of the process. If you want to pay cash great, need a loan fill out the Tesla loan application or go secure your own financing, want to lease, click here. Have a trade-in great, click here. Not happy with the trade value no problem, get a 2nd offer from Carmax and if it’s is higher we will match it.

FWIW, while not perfect, I found the Tesla buying process super smooth and I have purchased over 30 new and used cars over the years.
 
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So to sum it all up...

Traditional car dealerships are intentionally deceptive in their business practices, while Tesla is merely incompetent.


Yes, but the difference is if you invest a small amount of time researching beforehand, and then conduct your business with the internet sales folks via email, you can 100% avoid all the negative aspects of the traditional car dealership. You exchange a few emails, then you show up, once, on the actual date they told you, and like magic your car is actually there and ready to go.

But there's little you can do to avoid Tesla incompetence besides either not buy a tesla, or just roll the dice and hope you're one of the lucky ones.
 
So to sum it all up...

Traditional car dealerships are intentionally deceptive in their business practices, while Tesla is merely incompetent.

It may be the exception rather than the rule, but I had an excellent buying experience with Tesla. The order went well; the paperwork was perfect first time out. My delivery advisor even reached out proactively to let me know about the April price drop and that my vehicle price was adjusted accordingly. I used Campbell EFCU for financing - they’re rock stars!

At pickup; not only was the vehicle ready, it was detailed beautifully and the DA spent an hour going over every feature with my wife and I. Total top notch experience all the way around.

Now, on the traditional front ... we’ve had several Buicks and GMCs, all of which we’ve bought and serviced at the same local, family owned dealership. They’re honest and pleasant to work with. No complaints whatsoever. Also a great buying experience - they worked to get every possible incentive they could, even shuttling people (not us - we’re already members) to Costco to sign up for an additional $700 incentive.

So, the inverse can and does happen - Tesla can get their act together IF they have good delivery staff, and even the traditional dealership doesn’t have to be bad IF they choose not to be. The small, local, family owned dealership seems to be the way to go.
 
It may be the exception rather than the rule, but I had an excellent buying experience with Tesla. The order went well; the paperwork was perfect first time out. My delivery advisor even reached out proactively to let me know about the April price drop and that my vehicle price was adjusted accordingly. I used Campbell EFCU for financing - they’re rock stars!

At pickup; not only was the vehicle ready, it was detailed beautifully and the DA spent an hour going over every feature with my wife and I. Total top notch experience all the way around.

Now, on the traditional front ... we’ve had several Buicks and GMCs, all of which we’ve bought and serviced at the same local, family owned dealership. They’re honest and pleasant to work with. No complaints whatsoever. Also a great buying experience - they worked to get every possible incentive they could, even shuttling people (not us - we’re already members) to Costco to sign up for an additional $700 incentive.

So, the inverse can and does happen - Tesla can get their act together IF they have good delivery staff, and even the traditional dealership doesn’t have to be bad IF they choose not to be. The small, local, family owned dealership seems to be the way to go.
That was my experience for 2 out of 3 Teslas so I don’t think it’s the exception... just remember we are on an Internet forum which attracts the issues.

PS how did this thread get so off topic?
 
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Teslas have held their value pretty well over the years. But as for what the Model 3 will be worth in six years - who knows.

I will predict that a Model 3 LR RWD, black, 18” wheels without AP or FSD will depreciate less as a percentage than a Performance Model 3 with paint/wheel upgrades and FSD. Options depreciate down to almost nothing in the used market. So if you want your car to hold it’s value best go for a stripped down model. If that doesn’t suit you then just know that whatever you pay for options will be almost a complete loss on resale.

Performance Model 3 might as well be a different vehicle due to the performance considerations. It is meant to compete with a totally different segment of the market than a lower end M3. Assuming it can still clock low 3 second 0-60 in 5-6 years, it will be pretty desirable if the wheels aren't curbed to death.
 
I will predict that a Model 3 LR RWD, black, 18” wheels without AP or FSD will depreciate less as a percentage than a Performance Model 3 with paint/wheel upgrades and FSD. Options depreciate down to almost nothing in the used market. So if you want your car to hold it’s value best go for a stripped down model. If that doesn’t suit you then just know that whatever you pay for options will be almost a complete loss on resale.

I disagree my opinion is the AWD models will be the strongest. I predict they will depreciate along the same scale as Subaru WRX. The American buyers like vehicles that can be used all year long and many parts of the country have harsh winters and people want AWD. I think the SR and SR+ models will be the worst since the used market will be flooded with them.

The performance model should still be strong on the used market since it's the lowest volume of new M3 vehicles sold and there won't be as many on the market.

The MR & LR RWD is unknown since it's now discontinued and future SR RWD models might have more range in the coming years with a lower starting price.

At this point it's unknown what the value will be for FSD in the future. I previously had an older Model S P85+ without autopilot and now that I have M3P with the standard autopilot I wouldn't consider another Tesla without it.