It's against the mission. Tesla wants to make all cars on the road electric; every electric car taken off the road hurts the mission. Therefore Tesla has an incentive to keep the cars going, through upgrades or whatever, until there are no gasoline cars on the road.
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Will My New Model 3 Be Worth The Same As A Honda Civic In 6 Years?
- Thread starter heysteveh
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- resale value
They are FWD and people don’t mind driving them in the winter especially since they are a lower price point. The Civic and Corolla aren’t really the right car to compare with a Model 3. The entry model Acura IILX doesn’t retain it’s value as well and it’s basically a luxury version of the Civic.
I know there’s people that drive the RWD SR in the winter but with the lower range I don’t see them having as much demand especially when the market is flooded.
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
I believe the major issue with new technologies is the obsolescence effect.
Would you buy a ten year old smartphone, which is slow, heavy, has crappy camera....
Future cars will integrate more and more connectivities features, from interacting with surrounding cars or retails business to full self driving.
May be even, more and more car will become integrated into hailing fleets or livery services and less and less privately own.
Typically if a car is used about one hour a day, this mean that 95% of the time a car is parked, which takes a lot of space.
So may be in the future cars will be replaced even faster just because they be continually used like cities bus today.
Keep in mind that the SRs are only $40k to start with so the question is do I buy a new loaded up Civic, Corolla, Accord, Camry, etc. for $28-$36k or a 2-3 year old SR+ for $27-32k (guessing)? The Tesla will still have 1-2 years of bumper-to-bumper warranty and 5-6 years of battery and motor warranty left. As for range, there are lots of folks that only drive 30-40 miles per day on average. I have an SR+, charge to 80% and in the past two months haven't seen it get below 100 miles of range left. Now, if you have a long commute or take trips often then there is no doubt more range is ideal but for most folks 200+ miles of range per day is more than enough.
I agreed but but cars cost a lot more than phones so the pace at which the market is willing and capable of upgrading occurs at a much slower pace. There is a whole market of folks that can't afford to get into an EV until it gets to the $20-30k range. There are also folks that refuse to buy new cars and endure the steep depreciation curve.
DJVoorhees
Member
Remember - these cars are built on technology - processors, operating systems, and memory. These things go obsolete very quickly. I certainly hope you are right that Tesla will be dedicated to keeping it's cars on the road but decisions they made for cost, convenience, and manufacturing efficiency are counter to longevity. At some point - Tesla will have to replace and update the processors and hardware in the car, these things have a lifespan of years, not decades.
Fully agree but I think it will really depend on what the competition looks like in 2-3 years. If there are reliable Corolla and Civic EVs for $25k then that may impact Model 3 depreciation but there are a lot of variables to consider and no one has a crystal ball.
- Telsa has a Supercharger infrastructure. Game changer. If you are in the market for an EV right now and you want to take a trip who else do you pick?
- Tesla battery, motor, efficiency is way ahead of the competition right now and everyone else is playing catch up.
- Tesla vehicles have a reputation for be fun to drive and they are. A car is depreciating asset anyway, might as well have fun driving it. They also offer RWD vs. FWD for folks that prefer RWD driving dynamics and AWD. I expect many other EVs will be boring FWD economy models, slow and even more boring to drive than their ICE based versions.
- Tesla has now established a brand image and minimalist interior and recognizable look and feel that a lot of folks seem to appreciate. The are known for being innovative and making driving fun again. They are building vehicles that people actually like not just an appliance like a Corolla or Prius.
- They are working on AP/FSD. Even if it is not a reality just yet lots of folks want to be a part of this revolution.
- Continual software updates. I haven't seen any other cars on the market getting OTA updates yet. Maybe just some apps here and there on the infotainment system but nothing of substance.
I thinks the real game changer will be the Model Y and pickup truck since those are what sell the most. SUVs and Pickups. They also guzzle the most fuel so desirable EV versions will be even more in demand.
My biggest gripe at the moment is that I want Tesla to open up the parts ordering and service restrictions. I am fine if they want to skip the dealer network but then they need a lot more service centers then. I also want to be able to go online and order a part if I want to. If I want to replace my OEM brake pads and rotors then I want to go online and click to order and have the option to do the work myself. I hope we get to that point just like with traditional ICE based vehicles.
I have a couple of older Apple computers and they work great even in 2019. Two of them will even support the upcoming Catalina operating system. It will really depend on Tesla's support of older vehicles in the future. You can still drive and use an 18 year old Prius or Insight and those are first generation hybrid's.
You can. But would you rather be driving an 18 year old Prius or a Model 3?
There’s a difference between how long you “can” drive a car versus how long you will want to given all of the advances in technology that will be taking place over the next two decades. At some point you may just want to enjoy the newer technology. I’m not sure why everyone is so worried about driving their Model 3 15 years from now. Life is short. Don’t worry about it.
TT97
Active Member
So, the market is getting "flooded" with people buying RWD SR & SR+ but there is no market for RWD vehicles? Or do people only buy RWD vehicles new?
DJVoorhees
Member
You'd be wrong.
16 month old '18 LR RWD everything but FSD 57500 pre tax
19917 miles later(less than 15k/yr):
Tesla trade in value 33,200 or 42% depreciation.
Car max trade in value 36,000 or 37% depreciation.
This is far higher than the average first year depreciation values. So much for all the hoopla around resale value and all that.
Are those data points meaningful? And do they factor in the tax credits and incentives you received?
Tesla doesn’t want to buy back their own cars so they have never given high trade in values and CarMax is not known for being big on Teslas either. What we don’t have much data on is what private parties are really selling their used Model 3’s for. The ask prices are ridiculously high - almost as much as new after factoring in the tax credits. But what they actually sell for has been hard to determine since those transactions are private and most people don’t choose to post what they sold their vehicles for.
My guess is that a one year old Model 3 would sell for around 15% less than the net price after credits and incentives of a new car. As the credits phase out these prices should begin to normalize to more traditional depreciation schedules.
Kilotango74
Active Member
Yeah if your picking up your car now, I don’t think you can consider yourself an “early adopter”.
jebinc
Well-Known Member
"Early adopter" of a newer EV car company and newer, and continually evolving, EV technology (e.g., FSD, which I have). Guess I should have "spelled it out" in the original post for those that needed additional color….
If you truly are trying to sell your car right now I feel for you my friend. Generaly speaking, you would probably lose your shirt trying to sell ANY 2018 luxury car right now, ESPECIALLY if you are trading it in!
It looks like you may live in the San Diego area. If you are willing to try selling the car yourself, try taking out an add in the Phoenix, AZ area craigslist. In Arizona if you buy a car from a private party, you don't have to pay sales tax. So for example, I live in Phoenix and if I bought your car for $40,000 I would save close to $3,500 in sales tax since Arizona would consider it a private party sale even if I buy it from an out-of-state private party (you)! This would make your car an attractive alternative for someone considering a new Model 3 in the Phoenix area.
Though I am sure you are upset at what you have been quoted right now for your Model 3, I think that what OCR1 says in the following post is right on the money:
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure anybody concerned with getting max resale value on their car should be seriously counting trade in values as indicative of... well... anything.
I would disagree. It shows the cars aren't holding value well since mark up on trade ins is in the 10-15% range. In case of car max my car would have been resold for around 15% at 41400 which is exactly what Tesla is selling them at as used inventory without FSD. So Tesla is shooting for an even higher resale markup of just over 20%.
I was only looking for a quick trade in at decent value as I had a deposit on a Performance for pickup this morning. I cancelled because at those values I would have only broken even on the car.
Except that your car wasn't really sold to you for $57500. You received $10,000 in federal tax credits. So that's really $47,500 to $36,000 or 25% depreciation.
Also, the price of the car has dropped greatly since then. An LR RWD bought a month ago (you can't buy them now) was $45900. That's $39650 to the end customer after tax credits in california (but before sales tax. ignoring sales tax since you have to pay that whether you buy a car new or used).
So somebody was willing to buy your 16 month old LR RWD with 20k miles for $36k when they could have gotten a brand new one for $40k. That's an amazingly low amount of depreciation.
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