Will prices drop soon?

[matto]

Two things are about to happen .

1. Production is ramping up fast so it won't be long before supply matches demand.

2. The tax credit is shrinking

With this double whammy I don't see Tesla can keep prices where they are and continue to unload all the cars they are now in a position to produce.

 

[Xenius]

Hah, price won't move until queue is empty. Don't forget, the US isn't the world. There's plenty of people all over the globe that want a model 3 and will pay the price asked.

 

[lklundin]

Two things are about to happen .

1. Production is ramping up fast so it won't be long before supply matches demand.

2. The tax credit is shrinking

With this double whammy I don't see Tesla can keep prices where they are and continue to unload all the cars they are now in a position to produce.

Don't forget that USA represents only about a quarter of Tesla's market (and that they are currently only exporting small numbers of the Model 3 - to Canada - exactly for the purpose of maximizing the benefit of the federal tax credit).

 

[WarpedOne]

Yawn ... Yet Another Worried Newt ...

 

[arcanexvi]

Gotta say I have to agree with the masses here. I can't see Tesla lowering their prices on current models. They have plenty of customers foreign and domestic to keep the lines running at maximum.

 

[JoaoD]

Tesla has only been producing the higher optioned versions of the Model 3, and selling only in North America. There are still many regions waiting for the Model 3 to launch, and there are also the non optioned (specially the non premium interior) and the standard pack versions to be produced, so in a sense you could say that the entry price will lower soon, but the price of the current versions will not drop, or may even get higher like the paint options got recently.
If you are waiting for the prices to drop you are only going to disappoint yourself, demand surpasses supply by a large margin.

 

[MikeATL]

Agree with prior posts... I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for price drops. Possibly they’ll tweak some of the option pricing a little (many which they raised recently) and maybe in new markets options might be cheaper to start (especially if there’s no incentives there), however this car isn’t going “on sale” anytime in the foreseeable future.

The cheaper Model 3 will be the one with less options (short range, standard interior, etc) and they’ll introduce those if and when they see my excess production capacity.

 

[TheLocNar]

They’ll be going up because of the Trump tariffs.

 

[gaswalla]

If buying, yes you should wait a few years for the price to fall. Hasn’t the tech like the iPhone and every car fallen in price over time?

 

[JoaoD]

If buying, yes you should wait a few years for the price to fall. Hasn’t the tech like the iPhone and every car fallen in price over time?

From Model S example, the prices will go up over time as well as the number of features included. For example Tesla Model S 40.
Same thing with Iphones and other similar devices like GPU's that have had their prices increase year over year as well as the features included.
If you were referring to buying second hand then yes, the prices from previous generation products tend to go down over time.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Two things are about to happen .

1. Production is ramping up fast so it won't be long before supply matches demand.

2. The tax credit is shrinking

With this double whammy I don't see Tesla can keep prices where they are and continue to unload all the cars they are now in a position to produce.

1) Even after the point of matching ongoing demand (including all that demand outside of the US and Canada that they haven't begun to address) they'll still have a large backlog to work through.
2) To experience a Tesla is to want one. That includes vicariously through your next door neighbour's experience allaying the usual FUD (range anxiety anxiety, gas station thinking, etc.). So demand is going to be a moving (rising) target as the vehicles get out there.
3) The tax credit helps some customers stretch into the Tesla but there's a large potential market that doesn't need the full $7500 or really even at all when you get to the SR. Expect the Model 3 to compete, and even thrive at MSRP w/o.
4) Tesla set the prices with an eye to the longterm cost of production. They won't have much room to budge on the prices overall, as they are expecting to grow into them rather than having priced them based on initial production costs.
5) Did you notice that Tesla actually bumped their option prices, a couple of times, over the summer? Although they did take some off the top of the Performance (which had initially been priced with a lot of margin to work with).

Of course if sales fall off then you might see some shaving but no signs of that right now.

 

[MikeATL]

Hasn’t the tech like the iPhone and every car fallen in price over time?

True for commodities, but not so much for premium products. My last iPhone was $1150 !

 

[gaswalla]

Tongue in cheek comment

 

[StanTheMan]

The opposite, Tesla is effectively increasing the price. The painting option price, for example, has increased steadily this year. The red color was $1000. Later, it was $1500. Now, it is $2000.

 

[UtahIsRad]

Pricing is only going up people. Inflation is coming and Li-ion batteries are seeing a massive supply and demand issue with the adoption of EV’s, and everything else we have powered in this world. We are many years if not decades away from that changing. Along with that the raw materials are getting tariffs in this stupid trade war and that will just hit us the consumer as a tax.

 

[theschnell]

I think the earliest we see $35k version delivered will be July 2019. Could easily be later or never.

Here's what I think is happening. Supply for RWD is meeting demand, perhaps slightly exceeding it. Supply for AWD still not meeting demand. Regardless, they will not sell outside the U.S. and Canada until the expiration of the full tax credit in the U.S. As we get closer to the end of the year and everyone finally realizes the full credit is going away, they'll be able to sell off any excess RWD cars they have made prior to year end. Then for at least the first 6 months of next year, they will be selling to new markets around the world. It will be at least 6 months of doing that before they will even think of producing SR.

Just my $0.02

 

[S5S5G6]

As another poster said I’d expect pricing to hold if not climb, but options to increase (air suspension, sunroof, different interior trims) to improve perceived value for those who were not on it from the jump.

There’s no way tesla is going to let this experience cost less unless you drop to core/shoestring levels.

 

[ebmcs03]

Which car manufacture lowers their car prices? Every year every car price goes up. Even corollas and civics.

 

[TT97]

Which car manufacture lowers their car prices? Every year every car price goes up. Even corollas and civics.

Corolla and Civic are the #3 & #2 most sold cars in the U.S., of course they are not dropping the prices for those. There have been plenty of makes that prices have decreased. VW dropped the prices of many of their models a few years ago (for obvious reasons).

Tesla dropped their price for the X 75D last year but I doubt they will do that for the 3 as long as there are cheaper alternatives they can build before dropping the price of existing offering.

 

[ebmcs03]

Corolla and Civic are the #3 & #2 most sold cars in the U.S., of course they are not dropping the prices for those. There have been plenty of makes that prices have decreased. VW dropped the prices of many of their models a few years ago (for obvious reasons).

Tesla dropped their price for the X 75D last year but I doubt they will do that for the 3 as long as there are cheaper alternatives they can build before dropping the price of existing offering.

Well I don’t see Tesla having that issue like VW. Dropping the price because of the tax incentive phasing out, I don’t think would happen.

There’s plenty of sales for the model 3. People who never drove electric are finally understanding because they are hearing about it.

A friend of mine never believed me how good electric was. Although she loved the Tesla name for its clout. She ordered a model 3 drove it. Loved it. Then I went back and said I told you so years go. And she had to admit I was right and she didn’t know what she was missing.


So ya. It’s going to be the next corolla / civic in terms of sales once people understand electric.

Either that or another car manufacture will beat Tesla in mass sales. Then the price might be adjusted. But not anytime soon.