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Whenever it is going to be, hope I'm still on Bonnie's or AnOutsider's short lists for tagging along to the X beta event at the factoryTEG gets first dibs, of course.
Of course man! ....assuming my wife doesn't want to go haha
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Just read through some of the Tesla SEC Schedule 14A registration that was posted and filed today (April 24, 2014). On page 39, it states:
'As of the date of this filing, four market capitalization milestones for the 2012 CEO Grant have been achieved, and the following three operational milestones were consider probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Engineering Prototype (Alpha)
* Successful completion of the Model X Vehicle Prototype (Beta)
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle.
However, because no operational milestones have been achieved, no shares subject to the 2012 CEO Grant have vested.'
In terms of a Model X beta event, it looks like we are a ways out from that right now. I don't have any concerns that the Model X will reach production and I think the time frame will be much quicker to ramp up to production because Tesla has machinery and experience building the Model S. But If the Alpha isn't done yet, it seems like the Beta will be at least a couple more months out from here.
Also I would temper expectations of another Model S type Beta test ride event at the factory. The Factory is a fully working facility now and it would be challenging for Tesla to pull off something similar to what early Model S reservations holders experienced at the Factory. I would think they may do more regional test drive type events like the 'Get Amped' road show and that they may not even have a Beta event with all that they have going on as a company now. But I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that they do! The Beta event at the factory for the Model S was a great party and show and would be a nice perk for early adopters of the Model X to experience.
Also as a side note, the shareholder meeting this year will be Tuesday, June 3rd, 11:00am PDT at the Computer Museum in Mountain View (Same place as last year)
'As of the date of this filing, four market capitalization milestones for the 2012 CEO Grant have been achieved, and the following three operational milestones were consider probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Engineering Prototype (Alpha)
* Successful completion of the Model X Vehicle Prototype (Beta)
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle.
However, because no operational milestones have been achieved, no shares subject to the 2012 CEO Grant have vested.'
In terms of a Model X beta event, it looks like we are a ways out from that right now. I don't have any concerns that the Model X will reach production and I think the time frame will be much quicker to ramp up to production because Tesla has machinery and experience building the Model S. But If the Alpha isn't done yet, it seems like the Beta will be at least a couple more months out from here.
Also I would temper expectations of another Model S type Beta test ride event at the factory. The Factory is a fully working facility now and it would be challenging for Tesla to pull off something similar to what early Model S reservations holders experienced at the Factory. I would think they may do more regional test drive type events like the 'Get Amped' road show and that they may not even have a Beta event with all that they have going on as a company now. But I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that they do! The Beta event at the factory for the Model S was a great party and show and would be a nice perk for early adopters of the Model X to experience.
Also as a side note, the shareholder meeting this year will be Tuesday, June 3rd, 11:00am PDT at the Computer Museum in Mountain View (Same place as last year)
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I had a conversation with someone from TM at the Hamilton 100th SC event today. Model X will be in production late 2014 (founders/sigs) and deliveries will start in Jan 2015. Production will quickly ramp to 600/week in early 1stQ 2015 with all Sigs completed in the first half of Q1 2015 and then into Production reservations 2nd half of Q1. I know that anything we hear needs to be put into 'Tesla Time' context so take the above as 'rumor' ( I personally trust the source )
Nice specificity there AIMc. Helps my optimism. I started a "Days Until" countdown clock (labeled 'Model X Delivery') awhile back, it went under 300 days today. It's 299 days 'til Feb 17. So based on your Hamilton info, I won't be too terribly many weeks past that. . . . . Now Adding 'Tesla Time'
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
It's a goal to have it in production, it's scheduled to be in production, it is not a certainty that it will be in production at that point. There are no panels yet made, there are no dies on the floor stamping out pieces, there are no early models heading over for crash testing ... still some hoops to jump through.
I'm the first to get excited about any news BUT we have a way of taking a bit of info and going crazy until it becomes fact ... and then people are disappointed. Until I know for a fact that X panels have been stamped, even one, all dates I hear are 'boy, that would be nice, wouldn't it!!'.
I'm the first to get excited about any news BUT we have a way of taking a bit of info and going crazy until it becomes fact ... and then people are disappointed. Until I know for a fact that X panels have been stamped, even one, all dates I hear are 'boy, that would be nice, wouldn't it!!'.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Completely agree with Bonnie. Random Tesla person. Hmmm. I'm especially skeptical of a fast ramp to 600 / week. That would be an incredible risk to take.
Vger
Active Member
BTW, I had the thought that the new facility in Lathrop may be reserved for producing (or at least final assembly) of prototypes of upcoming models like Model X and eventually test mules and prototypes for Model E. Moving that activity away from the main factory would be a great way to keep it secret from prying visitor eyes, etc..
We, as a community, have already proven ourselves unable or unwilling to fully abide by the non-disclosure agreements we all sign when going to Fremont, judging by stuff posted here over the last couple years. :wink:
We, as a community, have already proven ourselves unable or unwilling to fully abide by the non-disclosure agreements we all sign when going to Fremont, judging by stuff posted here over the last couple years. :wink:
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Nubo
Test Mule
That prompted me to look up the grant details. Wow! If I understand correctly, meeting all 10 milestones results in giving Musk options for over 5 million shares at just over $31/share. About a Billion dollar gain at today's prices.
fengshui
Member
Yeah, if they haven't even finished the Alpha vehicle, we have a wait ahead of us. I hope that we don't have to wait for the shareholders meeting for more information about the X, but I fear that that's the case. The quarterly conference calls will have a little info, but the shareholders meeting will be denser.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
The filing implies that they don't have the Model X Engineering Prototype finished. Which means we are at least a year from first shipping cars.
Calm down, calm down. Hear me out...
They had engineering prototypes of the Model S in January 2011, the beta event in October 2011 and shipped in June 2013 - 29 months after the Alpha.
We can certainly assume that they will be much quicker this time around. But 7 months from "no Alpha vehicle" to "first Founders car shipped before the end of 2014"? Not a scenario I'd be willing to bet money on.
A beta event before the end of the year and first shipment about a year from now. I think that's an aggressive timeline but it might be doable.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Not sure how many bets I have already lost to you and I am going against my advice to others 'never bet against Bonnie!' but I think you will take delivery before April 30, 2015....bet another beer on it:wink:
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Bonnie that's pretty much what I would consider a challenging but doable timeframe. My wait will be a bit longer.
You're gonna invite all of us to come join you on a drive around town, right?
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