With version 9, how many years ahead is Tesla now?

[xsi123]

When I got my car in 2016, a S75D, I thought Tesla was at least two years ahead of competition in multiple fronts: battery, autopilot, technology (with over the air updates), even driving (I didn’t think Tesla was ahead in terms comfort or quality for a 82K car, but that is another story).

Forward almost two years to today, it started to look like the competition was catching up. Battery on other manufacturers is improving, more and more cars offering Advanced Lane Assist (or whatever each manufacturer calls it), touch screens, public charging networks growing etc. It felt to me that Tesla was slowing down while others closing in. Especially with Autopilot, with Cadillac, BMW and others showing their versions.

Now that we know what is coming with v9, if it works as described, I think Tesla is widening the gap again. And this time I think it will take a lot more for others to catch up. Auto-Lane change (Drive on Nav) is an unbelievable gutsy move in my opinion that no other manufacturer will try soon. If Tesla’s neural network is learning as fast as we think it does, it will keep Tesla way ahead of everybody else for a long time. I would say it will take at least two to three years for others to catch up and by then, who knows where Tesla will be in its own advancements (providing it is not closed down... haha)

What do you think?

 

[whitex]

Ahead of whom on what front? You talk about many fronts, but since you mention v9 widening the gap, you must mean autopilot since that is where v9 is catching up (v9 did nothing to advance battery technology you mentioned for example). I say catching up because Tesla autopilot is very much behind Waymo technology for example, or Uber or other self driving efforts. If you mean how far ahead in terms of Level 3 only and sold to the public (vs. just offering a ride share service like Waymo), then not that much ahead of say Audi Level 3. Tesla is ahead in taking risks, absolutely, but that hasn't yielded as much lead as you'd think - it absolutely motivated the rest of the industry to catch up though.

 

[chillaban]

Ahead of whom on what front? You talk about many fronts, but since you mention v9 widening the gap, you must mean autopilot since that is where v9 is catching up (v9 did nothing to advance battery technology you mentioned for example). I say catching up because Tesla autopilot is very much behind Waymo technology for example, or Uber or other self driving efforts. If you mean how far ahead in terms of Level 3 only and sold to the public (vs. just offering a ride share service like Waymo), then not that much ahead of say Auto Level 3. Tesla is ahead in taking risks, absolutely, but that hasn't yielded as much lead as you'd think - it absolutely motivated the rest of the industry to catch up though.

I'd say consumer-purchasable products is an important distinction. Offering ridesharing on dedicated routes and having marketing-controlled demonstration videos and press pieces is hard to compare to having the technology in the hands of around a quarter million users scattered all around the world, who mostly hop on the internet to complain when something went wrong.

Seriously, following the Waymo cars around my area, I really have to say: If you think "phantom" braking is annoying, you're really not going to like the driving behavior of safety-focused fully autonomous prototypes.

I would compare what Tesla is offering to the advanced assistance packages on BMW/Audi/Cadillac/Volvo offerings.

I'm not going to offer a timeline of how far they are ahead because I'm no good at estimating that…. but I think it is fair to say that Autopilot 1 and 2 in v8.1 is already leading that class in that capability. And at this point, nobody else is even teasing the abilities that v9 seem to be offering.

I guess we'll see when it gets released. But so far, v9 seems like a nice pleasant surprise from Tesla. Full surround vision awareness, seemingly long range blind spot detection, car vs truck vs whatever identification, even more modern UI… Even as a Tesla optimist, I was expecting a lot less out of this release.

 

[croman]

The UI is the biggest drawback to V9. As far as how far ahead, tech moves so quickly. At least Tesla is finally starting to deliver EAP. It's been 2 long years of some very dangerous AP builds.

 

[Nick B]

Honestly I understand that Tesla needs to pursue autopilot improvements but I personally find that Tesla would gain a lot more by improving their service centers and the overall quality of their cars.

Let's face it, Tesla is still far from being a profitable company and with the recent annoyances regarding the delivery processes and the overall disorganization of the service centers (maintenance delays, length of repair times, etc), I don't have the impression that they are focusing on the most pressing issues. Also, this trend will likely amplify with all of the new model 3s that are being delivered.

 

[whitex]

Tesla is definitely not ahead of the rest of the industry using radar based BSM. How long before people realize that blind spot detection doesn't work when the cameras get covered by rain and dirt (like the rear camera)?

 

[diplomat33]

I definitely think that V9 puts Tesla way ahead of GM's Supercruise. That's for sure. And the software updates continue to be a great advantage to Tesla because if some other auto company does come out with a better driver assist, Tesla can leap frog ahead with just a push of a button.

 

[bmah]

I definitely think that V9 puts Tesla way ahead of GM's Supercruise. That's for sure. And the software updates continue to be a great advantage to Tesla because if some other auto company does come out with a better driver assist, Tesla can leap frog ahead with just a push of a button.

A push of a button might deliver code, but as we say in the software industry, there's a small matter of programming first.

Bruce.

 

[diplomat33]

A push of a button might deliver code, but as we say in the software industry, there's a small matter of programming first.

Bruce.

True. I know that of course. But having all your cars with the hardware already installed that can receive software improvements over the air once the programming part is done is still an advantage in my opinion compared to auto makers that can only apply their improvements to the next batch of cars in production the following year.

 

[10dot]

I would compare what Tesla is offering to the advanced assistance packages on BMW/Audi/Cadillac/Volvo offerings.

I can at least speak to Audi since I test drove a couple brand new ones leading up to my recent Model S purchase... Tesla is in a completely different league. Just ACC/blindspot (assuming v9 blindspot is good) sure, it's more or less the same. But in terms of "I want to just rest my hand on the wheel and let the car do the hard part", Audi isn't nearly as good as EAP in both rush hour and highway conditions from my (admittedly brief) experience.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I wouldn't say Tesla is ahead.

Quite frankly Tesla is willing to do what other manufactures won't do.

Now when Tesla has AP3 with the custom computer then it's very possible that they might be ahead, and definitely ahead in terms of controlling their own destiny.

Most other manufactures partner up with a solutions provider.

 

[bob_p]

Unless the other manufacturers change their software strategy, Tesla will continue to have one huge advantage over the other manufacturers - a commitment to continue providing new features via software updates for the lifetime of the vehicles.

Even if a vehicle from another manufacturer has some aspects of "driver assistance" features better than the current Tesla, several years from now, those vehicles will likely always have the same level of functionality, while Tesla will continue to make improvements (to the limit of the hardware) and will likely overcome any short-term deficiencies.

Tesla has been building AP2 vehicles for 2 years - with V9, they should see a significant improvement in AP functionality.

Compare that to any vehicle from other manufacturers - which will still be limited to the functionality they had at delivery.

The only limitation will be due to hardware - and Tesla has made a major assumption that their AP2 sensor suite is sufficient to meet the EAP/FSD program goals - using front-facing radar, 8 cameras providing a 360 degree view, and 360 degree proximity sensors - and no lidar.

 

[chillaban]

I wouldn't say Tesla is ahead.

Quite frankly Tesla is willing to do what other manufactures won't do.

Now when Tesla has AP3 with the custom computer then it's very possible that they might be ahead, and definitely ahead in terms of controlling their own destiny.

Most other manufactures partner up with a solutions provider.

It’s a little bit of both. Everyone who currently has a ping pong LKAS can sit there and say “yeah whatever we just don’t wanna do full steering for liability reasons” and to me that’s only a half truth.

Arguably even that 17.17.4 version of AP2 could function as a ping pong LKAS system. It took Tesla about a year of engineering work to work out a bunch of kinks — disambiguating concrete grooves, exit diving, lane skew on hills and curves, hitting bumps....

I don’t think Audi, Mercedes, BMW, etc could just snap a finger and the next morning they have a system like AP2 where even on 2018.36 I can regularly drive 300 highway miles without having to make a single control input. I agree with you that they don’t seem like they want to do this, but that doesn’t mean it’s a trivial accomplishment.


I came from the automotive supplier industry and have friends there that went to Tesla. Most lasted about a month before quitting, citing aggressive schedules, long work hours, high pressure, etc. Tesla definitely does software the Silicon Valley way, and while that will ultimately give everyone stomach ulcers and drinking problems, it undoubtedly allows Silicon Valley to operate at a much faster pace than anyone else. That’s something I know first hand, working out here for 10 years.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

When I got my car in 2016, a S75D, I thought Tesla was at least two years ahead of competition in multiple fronts: battery, autopilot, technology (with over the air updates), even driving (I didn’t think Tesla was ahead in terms comfort or quality for a 82K car, but that is another story).

Forward almost two years to today, it started to look like the competition was catching up. Battery on other manufacturers is improving, more and more cars offering Advanced Lane Assist (or whatever each manufacturer calls it), touch screens, public charging networks growing etc. It felt to me that Tesla was slowing down while others closing in. Especially with Autopilot, with Cadillac, BMW and others showing their versions.

Now that we know what is coming with v9, if it works as described, I think Tesla is widening the gap again. And this time I think it will take a lot more for others to catch up. Auto-Lane change (Drive on Nav) is an unbelievable gutsy move in my opinion that no other manufacturer will try soon. If Tesla’s neural network is learning as fast as we think it does, it will keep Tesla way ahead of everybody else for a long time. I would say it will take at least two to three years for others to catch up and by then, who knows where Tesla will be in its own advancements (providing it is not closed down... haha)

What do you think?

The primary advantage Tesla has over any potential competition is the Supercharger network. That's it. The competition will bury Tesla with nicer interiors and much better build quality.

 

[Naekuh]

I think honestly tesla is still behind itself and its promise, if you look at when they promised us FSD and Autonomous Vallet service.

Im still waiting for the day when I can press summon in front of the mall, and have my car come and pick me up in front of the elevators after coming out of its parking space.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The primary advantage Tesla has over any potential competition is the Supercharger network. That's it. The competition will bury Tesla with nicer interiors and much better build quality.

The supercharger network is often cited along with the SC model as to Tesla's competitive advantage.

But, this thread is about autonomous features or driving aids.

I can't see myself switching to Audi/Porsche/etc for the foreseeable future simply because they're likely not going to offer anything compelling compared with EAP or beyond.

We seem to be stuck in L2 territory with no clear direction on how to go beyond that.

Now a lot of that has to do with government regulation in that there really isn't any from a federal level. Instead it's a patchwork of AV regulations that differ depending on state.

We don't even have simple things like a single standard for V2V communication.

Imagine automatic lane changes with V2V communication. That would be friggen cool where a Model S would simply ask a Model 3 to get out of it's way.

So in some ways it's kinda funny to be talking about who's ahead when there really isn't anywhere to go.

Sure there are a few cool things like GM's Supercruise, or Tesla's drive on nav. But, they're both drive aids that don't free a person from the task of driving even for small amounts of time.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

It’s a little bit of both. Everyone who currently has a ping pong LKAS can sit there and say “yeah whatever we just don’t wanna do full steering for liability reasons” and to me that’s only a half truth.

Arguably even that 17.17.4 version of AP2 could function as a ping pong LKAS system. It took Tesla about a year of engineering work to work out a bunch of kinks — disambiguating concrete grooves, exit diving, lane skew on hills and curves, hitting bumps....

I don’t think Audi, Mercedes, BMW, etc could just snap a finger and the next morning they have a system like AP2 where even on 2018.36 I can regularly drive 300 highway miles without having to make a single control input. I agree with you that they don’t seem like they want to do this, but that doesn’t mean it’s a trivial accomplishment.


I came from the automotive supplier industry and have friends there that went to Tesla. Most lasted about a month before quitting, citing aggressive schedules, long work hours, high pressure, etc. Tesla definitely does software the Silicon Valley way, and while that will ultimately give everyone stomach ulcers and drinking problems, it undoubtedly allows Silicon Valley to operate at a much faster pace than anyone else. That’s something I know first hand, working out here for 10 years.

I don't really classify LKAS systems as Lane-Steering systems. As I understand them they're only meant as safety systems where they're a step above the annoying, but effective (when left on) lane departure systems.

I don't see Audi, Mercedes, BMW doing much of the work. As I understand if they mostly contract out to companies like MobileEye. So it's really a question of what to add to a car, and what liability to take on. Like GM doesn't map roads themselves, but they have someone else doing it.

It's certainly not trivial accomplishments, but MobileEye has been in business for a long time with quite a few accomplishments. The Nissan Lead pro-pilot uses the MobileEye solution. Now it has a different approach to lane-steering than AP so it's easy to rank it behind, but some people prefer it.

Post #13 on this thread is a users experience with Propilot assist.
2018 Nissan Leaf & ProPILOT Assist - Hands on

It's hard to determine a leader when every manufacture has a different approach to the problem.

 

[1375mlm]

It all depends on how many years Tesla takes to release V9

 

[chillaban]

I don't really classify LKAS systems as Lane-Steering systems. As I understand them they're only meant as safety systems where they're a step above the annoying, but effective (when left on) lane departure systems.

I don't see Audi, Mercedes, BMW doing much of the work. As I understand if they mostly contract out to companies like MobileEye. So it's really a question of what to add to a car, and what liability to take on. Like GM doesn't map roads themselves, but they have someone else doing it.

It's certainly not trivial accomplishments, but MobileEye has been in business for a long time with quite a few accomplishments. The Nissan Lead pro-pilot uses the MobileEye solution. Now it has a different approach to lane-steering than AP so it's easy to rank it behind, but some people prefer it.

Post #13 on this thread is a users experience with Propilot assist.
2018 Nissan Leaf & ProPILOT Assist - Hands on

It's hard to determine a leader when every manufacture has a different approach to the problem.

The only thing I'd add to that is technically MobileEye doesn't produce control algorithms in the current split. Continental, Delphi (well now Aptiv) and similar integrating suppliers actually glue together what MobileEye vends with a camera and radar of the supplier's choosing and adds the control algorithms that meet the automaker's specs.

Sooooo long story short, whether or not you care: Tesla having a fully in house stack (from hardware design to customer shipping software) for any level of assist is a huge deal.

 

[MIT_S60]

I think honestly tesla is still behind itself and its promise, if you look at when they promised us FSD and Autonomous Vallet service.

Im still waiting for the day when I can press summon in front of the mall, and have my car come and pick me up in front of the elevators after coming out of its parking space.

As cool as that sounds in theory, I would be too afraid of it parking in a tight spot and getting door dings from random people in a parking lot (instead of parking in a far corner spot to minimize parking lot damage).