With version 9, how many years ahead is Tesla now?

[bell2041]

Tesla needs to catch up on some very basics first.

1. Like auto wipers that is the worse on the market,
Wipers Auto and lack of "speed sensitive" on manual mode

or seat design that is just Not good for 20% of people
Driver seat: metal bar in the middle is pushing after just 1 month

or fan speed on Auto mode that never goes lower than 3, it's just not normal that the air is blowing so hard at all times.

or Bluetooth connectivity while talking on the phone that is really the worse, everybody is complaining of how bad the sound is. Again, any basic $20k car has no problem in this basic tech

or god forbid you'll get into an accident, you will go through a nightmare fixing your car. Again not a single car has this issue.

So Tesla is much more advanced in new tech features but failing on basic old features

 

[henderrj]

The primary advantage Tesla has over any potential competition is the Supercharger network. That's it. The competition will bury Tesla with nicer interiors and much better build quality.

I'm sorry but you've got to be kidding me. Almost every announced car that's going to come in the next 1 to 4 years has a battery capacity lower than Tesla's hundred kilowatt-hour has had for a few years now. The only reason Tesla hasn't gone larger is that they just don't care yet. There are other, many other, technical advantages that Tesla has as well. And the supercharger network is no small thing, it took them many years to build it up. I can remember watching the map grow when it had only a handful of stations. Now I've driven across country three times without even thinking about charging ahead of time.

I think you misunderstand what people want. I've loved every Mercedes I've owned, especially my S Class, (please Tesla give me soft close doors!) but no way would I go back. And you also missed the kids of today. Every little kid that sees I have a Tesla says "it's the future, it's the future!" Grade school kids! I've said it before, those car companies have already lost, they just don't realize the new generation is gone to them.

 

[suwaneedad]

As I read about the upcoming offerings from Jag, Porsche, and so on, my repeated conclusion is "damn, Tesla has a five year advantage on all of these mfrs, at least." That's amazing, since we all know that reverse engineering is so much easier than being the pioneer. (Ahem, Apple.) I view Tesla's main advantages as the battery tech and the SC network, but that's because my use case is all about range. That said, range anxiety is a real issue for non-FanBoys, which has been a limiting issue for the likes of LEAF, i3, Bolt, etc. Model 3 goes a very long way to killing range anxiety for the masses, and at an affordable cost for many (certainly more than Tesla can even produce for given its production capacity constraints). The arrival of Model Y will push lots of our Model 3s into the used market, pushing kick-ass EVs into the hands of many many more people who can't afford these $55-$80k new Model 3s (or the upcoming $35k SR).

If I'm correct, that's another five years (2023!) before Tesla is concerned about its Model S/X/3 customers beginning to defect to the Jags of the world, with their better build quality and so on. A lot can happen by 2023. Not to mention it's never been Tesla's mission to provide all the EVs the world wants...plenty of room for everyone. I would not be surprised if, by 2023, BMW has been so damaged by loss of market share that Tesla acquires at least one assembly plant from BMW to expand its mfg capacity not to mention acquiring some of the BMW expertise in fit/finish in the process. That could be in Germany, but could also be in Greenville SC where union labor is not a threat like it is in Fremont. Can build cars much cheaper in Greenville SC than in Fremont CA, and reach the majority of American buyers overnight for rapid delivery.

 

[tjhmax]

I like version V8.1 2018.36.2 quite a bit. Tesla must have done a bunch of tweaks over the last 3-4 months. AP appears to work smoother. On AutoPilot blind spot detection works very well, even though the car won’t tell you. When you set the turn signal and a car is near you in the destination lane, your car won’t move until clear. And that at very high travel speed.
I don’t even know who offers this? Or lane keeping at 90 mph? Or adaptive cruise control you can use in the mountains without touching the gas or brake?
I think Tesla is further ahead than even the experts think. Everyone seems to being compared to Waymo. Waymo seems to be the leader, BUT Joe Average does not have access to this, so it does not really matter.
Now V9 is coming out. Looks like this will be another jump in AP capability. I expect that AP will work even smoother with additional automatic features.
In California 90% of travel is on freeways, so AP V9 with automatic on-ramp-to-off-ramp is just about as close to FSD as I can think off.
I also don’t get the difference between Level 2 and Level 3. One requires more attention, the other less attention. Seems like semantics...both have the propensity to kill you. So, you better still watch at ALL times.
Legacy car companies are very risk averse while Tesla is like a maverick. So, Tesla will always give us more cutting edge AP stuff to try out, which others simple will not do until proven absolutely safe. Tesla will always be somewhat ahead.

 

[whitex]

Unless the other manufacturers change their software strategy, Tesla will continue to have one huge advantage over the other manufacturers - a commitment to continue providing new features via software updates for the lifetime of the vehicles.

Really, commitment? How is that? It's not a commitment if its empty words with no recourse if they don't deliver.

They sold me 691hp car with AP1 which was supposed to find me anywhere on private property and with SDK "coming soon" that was supposed to allow me to write my own apps. 4 years later, 691hp never came (car would need 50% power increase to get there, yes, yes, an excuse did come that the car is capable, just not the drive-train or battery), AP1 "find me anywhere on private property" turned out to be "drive in a straight line while the driver holds a dead-man-switch making sure the car doesn't hit anything" and SDK is simply not mentioned anywhere, along with blind spot monitoring/warning which was explicitly listed in the specifications, then removed and never spoken of again either. Oh, and almost every update the screen gets slower and slower, plus the browser which used to allow me to use web apps while waiting for the SDK, stopped working few updates ago for anything but google, and from what I hear in v9 I won't even be able to split screen to have the browser on top and another app on bottom.

What over the air updates allowed Tesla to do is to sell complete vapourware, features which Elon dreamed up without thinking them through, therefore they either never come or come leaving you very underwhelmed at best. But here is the good news.Tesla does deliver on some of the promises, like 691hp, just not to people they sold it to (for a mere $100K extra I could upgrade to P100D so I could get the 691hp they sold me 4 years ago). Same with blind spot detection, finally got better, but only for people with AP2. UI finally got faster, but only for people with new MCU hardware. FSD will work some day too, just not for anyone who has a car today. Tesla's MO is to promise a dream, string people along, come up with new hardware, then dismiss complaint about old hardware saying "it will work on new hardware" so that it doesn't affect their new car sales.

 

[bob_p]

It's true that AP2 still hasn't met the goals for EAP - two years later, and it could take years more (if ever) before Tesla gets FSD working (and even if they do, getting regulator y approval & insurance coverage to allow operation with "hands off wheel" is a big question mark).

But...

Compare a 2016 Tesla with AP2 with a 2016 vehicle from any other manufacturer. None of those vehicles will ever have the chance to get EAP or FSD.

The EV's coming out soon from the other manufacturers will have "driver assist" features similar to AP/EAP, but will likely always be limited to the functionality they provide at delivery - and not have the potential to add new functionality later through software updates.

As an owner of two Tesla's with the AP2.x hardware, it is frustrating how long it's taken for Tesla to get EAP working, along with the other smaller items like TACC (which slows down incorrectly in areas with bad speed limit data) or the automatic wipers (which evidently rely on the AP sensors). But I knew the software wasn't there when I purchased the car, and was willing to accept less at delivery, with the expectation that over the 100K miles we plan to keep both cars, Tesla will eventually get the software working well enough to meet our expectations.

 

[tjhmax]

It is too bad that early adopters got screwed with high flying promises. Those AP promises were made when Tesla used Mobileye. As we all know Mobileye got kicked out in 2016 and Tesla had to essentially start from scratch to develop EAP...on their own.
That is why those lofty goals fell apart. Sad but that is life.
I recently got my Model S 100D for a lot more money than earlier Teslas, but I was content that in worst case whatever features I got were the only features I ever see. And if the car actually improves with OTAs, that would be a bonus.
I know Marketing too well than to pin my hopes on future promises. I did not purchase FSD because I don’t believe it can be done during the lifetime of the car. Waymo is at it for more than 10 years and still it is no where to be found commercially, still testing.
Tesla with EAP is since about March 2018 finding their stride finally after years. The software is now improving by leaps and bounds...mostly for HW2x, HW1 is however screwed(that hardware is too limited).
At least note that all those years you were driving a car that was light years ahead of anyone else.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

How many years is Tesla ahead? Well, in terms of speed sign recognition... -2?
You have to compare them to the systems supplier for other car brands, which would be Mobileye.
The hard breakup cost Tesla two years to catch up and they didn't yet manage to fully duplicate their functionality.
The fact that the Mobileye customers only offer some of the features, some quite restricted, does not mean Mobileye is not still ahead of Tesla.
(Which is not to say Tesla did a good job increasing development speed since Karpathy came on board).

 

[whitex]

It is too bad that early adopters got screwed with high flying promises. Those AP promises were made when Tesla used Mobileye. As we all know Mobileye got kicked out in 2016 and Tesla had to essentially start from scratch to develop EAP...on their own.
That is why those lofty goals fell apart. Sad but that is life.

Completely self-inflicted wound as Elon was planning to rip off Mobileye IP (they built AP2 with both Nvidia GPUs and Mobileye, intending for Mobileye chips to train their own neural networks so that Mobileye will no longer be required). Also, nothing was stopping Tesla from continuing to complete their promises for AP1, except maybe lack of sensors or forethought what it would actually require to achieve their promises.

Secondly, AP promises are not the only ones that early adopters got burned on. 691hp for P85D? Another one of Elon's dreams he couldn't make happen (well, he did eventually for P100D, but it took different hardware Tesla was not about to upgrade the P85D owners to). Those who purchased P85D over 85D paid $25K extra for what they thought was 315 additional hp (691 vs 376), what they got was 46hp (463 vs 417) and an excuse that the car is capable, but not the drive-train or the battery. How about the SDK they promised, again nothing to do with Mobileye. And now they broke the browser too, so can't run much at all on this large screen anymore.

I recently got my Model S 100D for a lot more money than earlier Teslas, but I was content that in worst case whatever features I got were the only features I ever see. And if the car actually improves with OTAs, that would be a bonus.

I would settle for my car not getting worse with updates. Over the years it has slowed down, browser stopped working recently almost completely (couldn't even load google search for "Tesla" earlier today, LTE showed full bars, then again on full bars WiFi), WiFi connectivity further deteriorates (it was very fragile to begins with, check stories here in TMC how hard it is to keep a Tesla connected to WiFi, but after MCU2 got released MCU1 got even more wifi problems, I recently tracked it to for some reason MCU1 makes the Access Point think it has 5GHz capabilities, while it lacks the hardware of MCU2).

I wish Elon and Tesla would focus on making a better car for the driver, rather than on Elons hot air. Instead of adding Atari games to the car, make your wifi more reliable, fix stupid things like the car generating a warning every time you get out of the car with lights on - the lights go off no problem, but the car makes identical warning noise to the one emitted if you attempt to leave the car while still in Drive (the messages says the car's range will be reduced because lights are on, but it won't because the lights go off as soon as you get up from the seat) - that bug has been there since 2013. They have recently done some useful things, like enable update installation from the app, but at the same time, after the app update couple of days ago my Android phone has problems connecting to MCU2 car (not yet on .39) white it connects fine with the MCU1. Lack of consistent reliability and feature/use-case polish is what Tesla focus on fixing, instead of easter eggs.

The software is now improving by leaps and bounds...mostly for HW2x, HW1 is however screwed(that hardware is too limited).

Aha! Here is your biggest drawback of over the air updates. They sell you vapourware, and you only get whatever they release by the time they get new hardware, leaving you screwed, as you say. AP2 owners will get just as screwed when AP3 comes out, as they'll get only whatever happens to be done by that time, anything else Tesla will go radio silence on.

 

[Zooomer]

Tesla was 2 years ahead in 2015-16. Then the debacle with mobile eye cost them everything in self driving. They had to start over and were probably behind all the other companies working on it. Tesla moves quicker, releases earlier, less tested products. Currently I'd guess they are slightly ahead or even with others but moving quicker. Just because other companies haven't released yet doesn't mean Tesla is ahead but with their talent I do believe they will lead. Their greatest asset in self driving is the feedback from the cars, no one else has that.

 

[MathijsKok]

I say catching up because Tesla autopilot is very much behind Waymo technology for example, or Uber or other self driving efforts.

Hold on, did I miss something? Can I buy a vehicle with Waymo systems? I mean actually selling cars to customers is just a tad different from making youtube demo videos right?

 

[CK_Stuggi]

The money with autonomous cars is not squeezing out a margin on the sale, it's offering "car as a service" (Tesla network, anyone?).
You will never be able to buy a Waymo car.
The question would be whether you can already use it in your city - which, in truth, unless you live in one of three cities and take part in a select program, you cannot.
So in my city, heck, country, Tesla is the most advanced system available, even with it's shortfalls. But Waymo has 40k (or was it 80k?) cars on order to roll out their service...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The money with autonomous cars is not squeezing out a margin on the sale, it's offering "car as a service" (Tesla network, anyone?).
You will never be able to buy a Waymo car.
The question would be whether you can already use it in your city - which, in truth, unless you live in one of three cities and take part in a select program, you cannot.
So in my city, heck, country, Tesla is the most advanced system available, even with it's shortfalls. But Waymo has 40k (or was it 80k?) cars on order to roll out their service...

The real money will be in selling private autonomous cars in large numbers. Autonomous taxis are easy in comparison.

 

[gearchruncher]

hose AP promises were made when Tesla used Mobileye. As we all know Mobileye got kicked out in 2016 and Tesla had to essentially start from scratch to develop EAP...on their own.
That is why those lofty goals fell apart. Sad but that is life.

Zero of those promises were made when Tesla used Mobileye. Tesla knew Mobileye was out in June 2016. They released AP2 in October 2016, and made all the feature and timelines public at that time.

What Telsa bamboozled you with was they said "they had planned to use Mobileye in AP2 to transition." Yes, in early 2016 when they started AP2 they wanted to do that. By Mid-2016 it was clear that was out. It didn't stop them from telling everyone it would be AP1 parity by December 2016, and they didn't used the Mobileye excuse until mid 2017.

 

[gearchruncher]

I mean actually selling cars to customers is just a tad different from making youtube demo videos right?

Except when you use a demo video to sell a car. Tesla FSD video in 2016 anyone? Coast-to-coast by 2018? "6 months definitely"

Waymo cars are actually on the road FSD, albeit in limited locations. Ironically to your point, Tesla is the only one that has only a video to show off their FSD, everyone else is out in the real world.

 

[chillaban]

Zero of those promises were made when Tesla used Mobileye. Tesla knew Mobileye was out in June 2016. They released AP2 in October 2016, and made all the feature and timelines public at that time.

What Telsa bamboozled you with was they said "they had planned to use Mobileye in AP2 to transition." Yes, in early 2016 when they started AP2 they wanted to do that. By Mid-2016 it was clear that was out. It didn't stop them from telling everyone it would be AP1 parity by December 2016, and they didn't used the Mobileye excuse until mid 2017.

Oh come on, Tesla absolutely mentioned higher levels of AP1 functionality all the way back to the AP1 unveil. Onramp-to-offramp was promised twice before AP2 was even a thing (once in the 8.0 sneak peak release notes, once in the original unveil). Same with traffic light recognition.

 

[chillaban]

Except when you use a demo video to sell a car. Tesla FSD video in 2016 anyone? Coast-to-coast by 2018? "6 months definitely"

Waymo cars are actually on the road FSD, albeit in limited locations. Ironically to your point, Tesla is the only one that has only a video to show off their FSD, everyone else is out in the real world.

Are you saying this because you've personally taken rides in Waymo cars on routes of your choosing?

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

The UI is the biggest drawback to V9. As far as how far ahead, tech moves so quickly. At least Tesla is finally starting to deliver EAP. It's been 2 long years of some very dangerous AP builds.

What is UI? DOWN WITH ACROMYMS. It doesn't make you look any smarter and it wastes my time. Unemployment Insurance is UI.

 

[Lasttoy]

I remind everyone of the Bolt that took 16 days to go 2000 miles. I do it in 3.
We have a network that will never ever be matched. And the new super chargers take 15 minutes.
Porche needs 800 volts to charge the car they showed last month in Monterrey.

 

[whitex]

Hold on, did I miss something? Can I buy a vehicle with Waymo systems? I mean actually selling cars to customers is just a tad different from making youtube demo videos right?

You can't buy a Tesla self driving vehicle either. You can pay for FSD but it does absolutely nothing and will never actually self drive. Both Waymo and Uber have been offering rides to the public in autonomous vehicles before Tesla AP2 could even wipe it's own windshield. All Tesla did was to create a fake video and manage to get people to pay for vapourware. But yes, neither of the autonomous cars had a huge screen built in, so maybe that puts Tesla ahead.