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Here's a more complete description of his statements:This is Elon time, so if he's saying the end of the year, maybe 2021? And AP 2.0 cars are completely screwed.
So is the consensus of some that going forward some of the cutting edge AP/FSD features they will be implementing simply will not work with HW 2.0? If this is the case, they really must have a proper upgrade path as so many customers bought HW 2.0 cars based on the promise of being able yo upgrade their cars to achieve FSD.
I don't think it's technically feasible to implement the new hardware on AP2.0 cars, so those with AP2 are most likely stuck with what they have. There have been multiple breakdowns of the differences in AP2 vs AP2.5 and it's far too different (including wiring harnesses) to be a drop-in swap.
No idea what will happen to those that ordered FSD, personally I don't think that actual FSD is possible with the vision + radar configuration on a Tesla. I'm assuming they will get their money back at some point, or have it converted to a credit towards a new Tesla.
This thread really pisses me off. I knew I should have quit reading the forums after I bought my car. I'm starting to think Elon is a pathological liar. Either that or he just doesn't care if he knows what he's talking about.
I don't think it's technically feasible to implement the new hardware on AP2.0 cars, so those with AP2 are most likely stuck with what they have. There have been multiple breakdowns of the differences in AP2 vs AP2.5 and it's far too different (including wiring harnesses) to be a drop-in swap.
No idea what will happen to those that ordered FSD, personally I don't think that actual FSD is possible with the vision + radar configuration on a Tesla. I'm assuming they will get their money back at some point, or have it converted to a credit towards a new Tesla.
We know the Autopilot computer is easy enough to upgrade and it was designed as such. How hard is it to upgrade the cameras? That surely can't be that hard can it? Given the fact they sold AP 2.0 cars with a promise to be able to update the hardware to support EAP and FSD, they need to come up with a reasonable way to enable AP2/AP3 feature parity.
But it’s not just the cameras! There’s a new radar with a narrow and wide band, there’s a new redundant wire to the radar. There’s a rendundant steering servo.
I’m sure there’s other things I’m missing but those are just a “few” of the “minor” things Tesla did with 2.5. Anyone who bought a car between ~Oct 2016 and ~Aug 2017, better gear up for a fight or put the pitch forks down and consider themselves abandoned by Tesla.
Just look at all this dashcam / sentry crap. There is 0, zilch, nada one reason Tesla can’t give this to AP2 cars NONE!!! They simply choose not to because it’s a greyscale image, even though that can be fixed to with a little post processing....
So, buckle up AP2 owners it’s going to be a bumpy ride. I’m one of you, and I’m not seeing it. And I wish I didn’t see so much behind the covers it’s just making me more pissed off...
FSD will not happen for the next 2-3 years at least, and FSD != "feature parity" with Model 3 or newer S/X, in 2-3 years most AP2 cars are going to be 4-5 years old, most of them with not original owners , so nobody would careIf they renege feature parity for advertised EAP/FSD features for AP2 cars when AP3 rolls out, I think they will find a sh*tstorm of trouble from people who bought the cars, paid extra for those features, AND patiently waited in good faith to receive what was promised.
Tesla really needs to figure out a way to offer AP2/AP3 feature parity as AP3 hardware essentially promises what was sold for AP2.
FSD will not happen for the next 2-3 years at least, and FSD != "feature parity" with Model 3 or newer S/X, in 2-3 years most AP2 cars are going to be 4-5 years old, most of them with not original owners , so nobody would care
So apparently, with AP3, a hardware update is needed and this update retrofit has been promised for customers with AP2 cars. People bought AP2 cars and paid for EAP and FSD or they were told they can enable FSD features at a set price post-purchase.
I hope you are correct.If Tesla gets FSD working, I think there will be a HW2 => HW2.5 upgrade path (full upgrade, not just the HW3 compute unit). The wiring changes shouldn't be as bad as they sound. Yes, the HW2.5 cameras are different, but the form factor is exactly the same, as is the hardware all the way down to the sensor (it's literally just the filter that's different). So you need replacement cameras with the correct filter, but they'll drop right into the existing harness. You would need new wiring for the Continental radar but that isn't very invasive (no upholstery removal and frunk area is very accessible). There are some small changes at the point of the computer but those are even easier than the radar.
I also expect that Tesla will eventually backport Sentry and dashcam to HW2 vehicles, probably when they have time to do the work of simulating the missing B channel from the HW2 cameras. At that point, they'll be able to support both HW2 and HW2.5 variants through a (mostly) single code path.
I estimate 50,000 to 75,000 AP2 cars were built. Shouldn't that be enough customers to at least get an answer?