100d is coming soon

[sandpiper]

They said under the introduction of the Gigafactory that the 2170 battery won't come to Model S and Molde X until the end of nest year, Tesla Energy and Model lll have higher priority. Elon have also said that they will probably stop at 100 kWh because it's just pointless to drive around with a heavier battery that you don't use most of the time.

Right. And, while it's utterly possible that Tesla does both of those things, I'm not convinced of either. Elon once commented that he didn't see a need for a battery bigger than 85kwh. Or performance better than that of the P90DL. Yet here we are.

And I reserve the right to argue of the behalf of those living in less dense & colder areas that a 120+ battery WOULD find a substantial market - and not just from one guy living in an igloo on the shores of the Beaufort Sea. And that's despite the slightly condescending arguments from those living in well served areas that it's not needed. It's needed.

 

[sandpiper]

No! If they do that "everybody" would whining about "What about 120D? When will that arrive? I would be sitting on the fence until I can order a 120D! Will Model 3 initially be delivered with a 120kWh battery?"

Yup. And that would give us something to talk about next year.

 

[PJFW8]

Right. And, while it's utterly possible that Tesla does both of those things, I'm not convinced of either. Elon once commented that he didn't see a need for a battery bigger than 85kwh. Or performance better than that of the P90DL. Yet here we are.

And I reserve the right to argue of the behalf of those living in less dense & colder areas that a 120+ battery WOULD find a substantial market - and not just from one guy living in an igloo on the shores of the Beaufort Sea. And that's despite the slightly condescending arguments from those living in well served areas that it's not needed. It's needed.

And not just in the frozen north. Superchargers are few and far between in the Carolinas. A real world 300 mile range is all but essential near the coast and absolutely needed in the WNC mountains.

 

[Haxster]

For those of you hedging on ordering a 90D in hopes that a 100D will become available before the end of the year, this strategy may work for you:
Order, Cancel, Repeat

 

[vigge50]

And not just in the frozen north. Superchargers are few and far between in the Carolinas. A real world 300 mile range is all but essential near the coast and absolutely needed in the WNC mountains.

Right. And, while it's utterly possible that Tesla does both of those things, I'm not convinced of either. Elon once commented that he didn't see a need for a battery bigger than 85kwh. Or performance better than that of the P90DL. Yet here we are.

And I reserve the right to argue of the behalf of those living in less dense & colder areas that a 120+ battery WOULD find a substantial market - and not just from one guy living in an igloo on the shores of the Beaufort Sea. And that's despite the slightly condescending arguments from those living in well served areas that it's not needed. It's needed.

Sure, there could be use of bigger battery but then we are facing another problem, schould we build one Molde S 120 so that customer could do some long trips when he/she need it or schould we build two Model lll with 60 kWh battery there most of the battery would be used often? Even with the Gigafactory tesla won't have endless with battery and then you will have to use it the best way.

 

[sandpiper]

Sure, there could be use of bigger battery but then we are facing another problem, schould we build one Molde S 120 so that customer could do some long trips when he/she need it or schould we build two Model lll with 60 kWh battery there most of the battery would be used often? Even with the Gigafactory tesla won't have endless with battery and then you will have to use it the best way.

There will be a lot more profit in one P120D or 120D than in two Model IIIs. Tesla will sell as many of the high end cars as the market will buy. If cell production becomes a bottleneck, the low margin Model IIIs will wait.

 

[vigge50]

There will be a lot more profit in one P120D or 120D than in two Model IIIs. I believe that Tesla will sell as many of the high end cars are the market will buy. If cell production becomes a bottleneck, the low margin Model IIIs will wait.

So you mean that you think Elon and Tesla is driven for as mush profit as possible instead of getting as many electric cars on the road? Tesla have said that 2170 will go first to Model lll and then when the production of 2170 cells is higher the Model lll production they will introduce it to Model S and Model X, they don't prioritise high profit Model S over Model lll.

 

[sandpiper]

So you mean that you think Elon and Tesla is driven for as mush profit as possible instead of getting as many electric cars on the road? Tesla have said that 2170 will go first to Model lll and then when the production of 2170 cells is higher the Model lll production they will introduce it to Model S and Model X, they don't prioritise high profit Model S over Model lll.

I'm sorry but you're naive if you believe that. As much as Tesla may be driven by some over-arching environmental goals, they are a business. And businesses need profit to survive. If they have a shortage of cells (which remains to be seen) and have to prioritize, the will go to the higher margin car.

It is certainly possible that they delay putting the 2170s in the S/X until after the 3 ramp-up is well underway. But my suspicion that they won't is triggered by this new design 100 pack. Why would build a line and ramp it up, just to change it again in a year? It makes no sense unless it's somehow connected to inevitable the 2170 changeover. I'm really really suspicious that the new module and pack is designed to accommodate 2170s, but will also accept the older cells, and that they're using the P100D as a vehicle to field trial the new design at a fairly low volume.

 

[JClu]

So you mean that you think Elon and Tesla is driven for as mush profit as possible instead of getting as many electric cars on the road?

I agree with @sandpiper . I would like to believe Elon Musk's vision of the future of sustainable energy use and Tesla's role in it. However, Tesla as a company still needs profit to continue its operation. While the upper echelons has these ideals, the middle management and working class still subscribe to traditional business practices. As a matter of fact, I felt the traditional car salesperson push for my order at the end of Q3 ("well, if you don't put down the order now, the rates are going to go up and we can't promise you these discounts etc etc").

 

[vigge50]

I'm sorry but you're naive if you believe that. As much as Tesla may be driven by some over-arching environmental goals, they are a business. And businesses need profit to survive. If they have a shortage of cells (which remains to be seen) and have to prioritize, the will go to the higher margin car.

It is certainly possible that they delay putting the 2170s in the S/X until after the 3 ramp-up is well underway. But my suspicion that they won't is triggered by this new design 100 pack. Why would build a line and ramp it up, just to change it again in a year? It makes no sense unless it's somehow connected to inevitable the 2170 changeover. I'm really really suspicious that the new module and pack is designed to accommodate 2170s, but will also accept the older cells, and that they're using the P100D as a vehicle to field trial the new design at a fairly low volume.

When they introduce the P100D they said that the new architecture would be use in Model lll and this was indeed a way to test it before they use it in Model lll. The architecture is probebly then scalable to fit with the new 2170 cells in Model lll and eventually Model S and Model X. The question is then if they will use the new cells in Model S and X to free up space, increse the cooling, lighten the pack etc or try to fit as many cells as possible to get a bigger pack?

 

[HumanGenome]

The architecture is probebly then scalable to fit with the new 2170 cells in Model lll and eventually Model S and Model X.

I wonder if that would mean any possibility of swapping a 18650 battery pack with a 2170 battery pack for P100D and 100D owners some day.

 

[sandpiper]

When they introduce the P100D they said that the new architecture would be use in Model lll and this was indeed a way to test it before they use it in Model lll. The architecture is probebly then scalable to fit with the new 2170 cells in Model lll and eventually Model S and Model X.

Interesting. I had not heard Tesla state that. So that makes sense.

The question is then if they will use the new cells in Model S and X to free up space, increse the cooling, lighten the pack etc or try to fit as many cells as possible to get a bigger pack?

Likely all of the above depending on the capacity of the pack in question.

 

[sandpiper]

I wonder if that would mean any possibility of swapping a 18650 battery pack with a 2170 battery pack for P100D and 100D owners some day.

I think it's very very likely yes. They only have to be externally compatible and I expect that they are. But it will likely be, as with the easily doable 85 to 100 upgrade, very expensive and difficult to actually get done.

 

[HumanGenome]

But it will likely be, as with the easily doable 85 to 100 upgrade, very expensive and difficult to actually get done.

I really hope they release some technical details related to the 100 kWh pack design changes so we can start filling in some blanks

 

[sandpiper]

I really hope they release some technical details related to the 100 kWh pack design changes so we can start filling in some blanks

I agree. But unfortunately I think we'll have to wait until one ends up in the salvage yard. That's really when we started to learn what was in the current 60/70/75/85/90 packs.

 

[doublebo7]

@xborg thank you for your premonition, badges are on the horizon which means I'll be upgrading through my DS tomorrow

 

[FlatSix911]

Confirmed in the code ... Tesla adds ‘100D’ badges for Model S and X, hints at imminent release of its longest range car yet

 

[jbcarioca]

There will be a lot more profit in one P120D or 120D than in two Model IIIs. Tesla will sell as many of the high end cars as the market will buy. If cell production becomes a bottleneck, the low margin Model IIIs will wait.

Remember that the high end Model III probably will have margins more or less equivalent to those of high end Model S. Production cost for Model III will be far less labor-intensive than is the S or X, which will probably have the obvious consequence of lower marginal cost and higher capital cost. Based on reports so far I think Tesla will not experience lower margins on the III range than they currently do for the X, probably even equal to those of the S.

 

[sandpiper]

Remember that the high end Model III probably will have margins more or less equivalent to those of high end Model S. Production cost for Model III will be far less labor-intensive than is the S or X, which will probably have the obvious consequence of lower marginal cost and higher capital cost. Based on reports so far I think Tesla will not experience lower margins on the III range than they currently do for the X, probably even equal to those of the S.

Eventually perhaps. Having been part of a lot of manufacturing startups I can tell you that the first year is not generally profitable on any new product. You have to deal with an inevitable mess of disasters that cost $ and disrupt the manufacturing process.

 

[jbcarioca]

Eventually perhaps. Having been part of a lot of manufacturing startups I can tell you that the first year is not generally profitable on any new product. You have to deal with an inevitable mess of disasters that cost $ and disrupt the manufacturing process.

Zero argument from me! History consistently proves hat point, but startup learning curve should be shorter with higher levels of automation, other things remaining equal. Of course, highly automated production also has higher cost of errors because of the higher production rates involved. Tesla has had highly successful robotics implementation, which, coupled with the Model III open roof in production, should pretty significantly reduce interior assembly costs and errors, often among the most problematical for initial vehicle production due to the typically heavy quantity of manual assembly required.

I'll happily wager that the learning curve will be relatively shorter for Model III than for any other totally new motor vehicle, primarily due to the total design simplicity and extensive robotics role. I am prepared to be wrong if they screw up the new robotics implementation. That seems unlikely to me; it is the sweet spot for Tesla manufacturing, both in the Gigafactory and in Fremont, plus the much simpler process for new factory duplication if and when required.