12/11/2021 - Will they activate StormWatch in the West this weekend

[jboy210]

With another atmospheric river aiming for California and the West this weekend and next week, I would not be surprised to see them turn on StormWatch this weekend.

One forecast shows over 100 inches of snow by early next week in places in the Sierras. And predicted to drop 4-6 inches in the SF Bay Area. We are hoping the creek above our house does not flood into our house.

And it looks like this series of storms will dump a lot of rain and snow all the way to the Rockies.

 

[holeydonut]

I don't understand how this year is the first year I've ever heard the term "atmospheric river". Like wtf... what happened to "lots of rain" or "heavy rain"? And how is it that people are all worried about losing power from heavy rains all of a sudden??? What's next, are we going to get "Omicron rain"?

PS, I'm setting my reserve to 75%.

 

[jboy210]

I don't understand how this year is the first year I've ever heard the term "atmospheric river". Like wtf... what happened to "lots of rain" or "heavy rain"? And how is it that people are all worried about losing power from heavy rains all of a sudden??? What's next, are we going to get "Omicron rain"?

PS, I'm setting my reserve to 75%.

Are you new to California and the West? I am in my 60s, grew up in California, and have heard people say "atmospheric river" and "pineapple express" since I was a kid.

My reserve is at 85%.

 

[holeydonut]

Are you new to California and the West? I am in my 60s, grew up in California, and have heard people say "atmospheric river" and "pineapple express" since I was a kid.

My reserve is at 85%.

I moved out here in 2008; ironically about the same time that the movie Pineapple Express came out... and I have never heard of anyone referring to heavy rain as an atmospheric river the entire time I've been out here.

 

[BGbreeder]

@holeydonut Atmospheric rivers as a phrase have been around for a long time, well at least since 1994. Atmospheric river - Wikipedia
The concept is much older, as is Pineapple Express / storm, perhaps mid 50s?

@jboy210 so...enquiring minds would like to know, how do you have a creek uphill from you?

All the best,

BG

 

[jboy210]

@holeydonut Atmospheric rivers as a phrase have been around for a long time, well at least since 1994. Atmospheric river - Wikipedia
The concept is much older, as is Pineapple Express / storm, perhaps mid 50s?

@jboy210 so...enquiring minds would like to know, how do you have a creek uphill from you?

All the best,

BG

When you live at the base of a 500-foot hill, a lot of creeks flowing down the hill are above your house. The one I am concerned about flows 3 inches from my rear fence, and my rear fence is 10 feet higher than most of my backyard. And water, like other material, flows downhill.

 

[Electrph]

my vote is storm watch will not activate for majority areas due to rain storms ...
and i have never heard term atmospheric river living in CA 46 years .. but i zone out a lot when people talk

 

[aesculus]

We did not get at SW for the last AR in October, which is was as big or bigger than what is forecast for next week. But there is a bit of a difference for those in the mountain foothills.

Last October everyone just got rain. This time there is potential snowfall above 2000 feet. The oak trees in my area have only lost about 1/2 of their leaves. Same up the hill 20 miles. Snow falling on trees with leaves can be a big problem with weight and could cause limbs to break and fall into powerlines. No worry about starting a fire, but could disrupt power over wide areas.

 

[EVEnergy]

Unless they are activating evacuation routes, I doubt they'll activate stormwatch.

 

[skepticcyclist]

Even expecting 2-3 inches of rain here in my area of SoCal. Unless they are expecting heavy winds, I doubt storm watch will be initiated, even with flood warnings. The mountain areas may get it activated with Winter Storm Warnings

 

[skepticcyclist]

As far as the atmospheric river term. This is a term used to describe when there is a large "river" of precipitable water imbedded in a strong jet stream. Hence the term "river". If you look at the models it has the appearance of a river of water flowing in a pipeline like path in the atmosphere. The volume of water in the atmosphere is even many times greater than that of the largest rivers over the same distance.

All Pacific atmospheric river events used to be referred to colloquially as the pineapple express because it was most often a stream of moisture coming from near Hawaii directly aimed at the west coast. They stopped referring to it as this because it is not always coming from Hawaii and probably because it has other meanings. So the pineapple express is just one type of atmospheric river.

It is also a very common event in the jet that follows the gulf stream of the Atlantic directed at Europe

 

[jboy210]

We did not get at SW for the last AR in October, which is was as big or bigger than what is forecast for next week. But there is a bit of a difference for those in the mountain foothills.

Last October everyone just got rain. This time there is potential snowfall above 2000 feet. The oak trees in my area have only lost about 1/2 of their leaves. Same up the hill 20 miles. Snow falling on trees with leaves can be a big problem with weight and could cause limbs to break and fall into powerlines. No worry about starting a fire, but could disrupt power over wide areas.

We did get StormWatch turned on in the last October storms. Good thing because we lost power for 3-4 hours. We are low, 400 or so feet, on the West side of the Livermore Valley, and got dumped on.

 

[BGbreeder]

When you live at the base of a 500-foot hill, a lot of creeks flowing down the hill are above your house. The one I am concerned about flows 3 inches from my rear fence, and my rear fence is 10 feet higher than most of my backyard. And water, like other material, flows downhill.

Got it!

On this issue, I once approached our insurer about getting insurance against water or mud coming downhill. They said that as a rule they insure only against rising water. Oh well...

 

[jboy210]

Got it!

On this issue, I once approached our insurer about getting insurance against water or mud coming downhill. They said that as a rule they insure only against rising water. Oh well...

Interesting. We were able to get flood insurance. Sure hope we don't have to use it. Right now there are 6 guys doing wallboarding in the Living and Dining room. These are the last rooms in the house to get remodeled in a 6 year on-off remodel. We would hate to have to start over.

 

[BGbreeder]

Interesting. We were able to get flood insurance. Sure hope we don't have to use it. Right now there are 6 guys doing wallboarding in the Living and Dining room. These are the last rooms in the house to get remodeled in a 6 year on-off remodel. We would hate to have to start over.

Yes, but the point about flood insurance is that it covers only rising water. I was all set to sign up until I caught that in the fine print. Your policy may differ.

I hope for your sake that you never need it either.

All the best,

Peter

 

[jboy210]

Yes, but the point about flood insurance is that it covers only rising water. I was all set to sign up until I caught that in the fine print. Your policy may differ.

I hope for your sake that you never need it either.

All the best,

Peter

Got it. I guess I should read the policy closer.

It seems like it should cover the drainage rising from the empty, where it is now, to overflowing its banks and flooding my home. But who knows what exception clauses they have.

 

[holeydonut]

Yes, but the point about flood insurance is that it covers only rising water. I was all set to sign up until I caught that in the fine print. Your policy may differ.

I hope for your sake that you never need it either.

All the best,

Peter

Eh? My house is 870 feet above sea level and is on the side of a hill. And somehow my street got put in a FEMA flood zone because the drainage was deemed inadequate by some geological survey done in 1990.

I was able to get insurance here through that FEMA program, and it expressly covers damage if the local drainage is insufficient. There is no rising water coming up to this elevation.

What's stupid is that the house across the street from me is 2 feet below my house and is somehow outside of the flood plane. The only way this house is flooding is if one of those firefighter planes drops its entire payload on my lawn.

 

[BGbreeder]

How is local drainage insufficiency defined? Just curious whether it also excludes downhill water as opposed to rising floodwater. The creek above me might flood and run downhill. Do I have to claim that the uphill creek had insufficient drainage?

 

[Zabe]

Great Flood of 1862 - Wikipedia

Now that was a Pineapple Express!

 

[charlesj]

I moved out here in 2008; ironically about the same time that the movie Pineapple Express came out... and I have never heard of anyone referring to heavy rain as an atmospheric river the entire time I've been out here.

I listened to KGO yesterday or day before. The host had a meteorologist. It is a rather new usage with lots of rain for days in and out unlike a one-day event.
Pineapple express comes from Hawaii.