12/11/2021 - Will they activate StormWatch in the West this weekend

[jboy210]

With another atmospheric river aiming for California and the West this weekend and next week, I would not be surprised to see them turn on StormWatch this weekend.

One forecast shows over 100 inches of snow by early next week in places in the Sierras. And predicted to drop 4-6 inches in the SF Bay Area. We are hoping the creek above our house does not flood into our house.

And it looks like this series of storms will dump a lot of rain and snow all the way to the Rockies.

 

[skepticcyclist]

ha ha ha. got me to laugh. I heard that "atmospheric river" phrase a few years ago. The wife turned to me and said something like, "I guess the weatherman is trying to complete with mainstream media to come up with new terms that don't actually mean anything."' I mean they now have "Firenatoes" and other off beat terms. I doubt we will have Omicron Rain unless of course the raindrops mutate into giant droplets

Atmospheric river is an actual meteorological term that has been used by meteorologists (actual meteorologists, not weather journalist on the news who call themselves meteorologists) for about 30 years. It was first used in a research paper after fluid dynamic weather models became more detailed.

Firenados are also real things. They are true tornados spawned in pyrocumulus clouds. Many people or even the media may look at a fire whorl (which is more like a dust devil, except with flames) and call it a firenado even though it is not. Firenado's are extremely rare. There was one a couple of years ago in the LoyaltonFire on the CA and NV border. It was detected by radar and was formed by the actual smoke cloud (which also produced a lot of lightning) and there was even a tornado warning issued by the NWS.

 

[skepticcyclist]

even if I put in Placerville, there's no warning

It depends on how far you are from Placerville. This is just 8 miles away: National Weather Service

 

[Silicon Desert]

Atmospheric river is an actual meteorological term that has been used by meteorologists (actual meteorologists, not weather journalist on the news who call themselves meteorologists) for about 30 years. It was first used in a research paper after fluid dynamic weather models became more detailed.

Firenados are also real things. They are true tornados spawned in pyrocumulus clouds. Many people or even the media may look at a fire whorl (which is more like a dust devil, except with flames) and call it a firenado even though it is not. Firenado's are extremely rare. There was one a couple of years ago in the LoyaltonFire on the CA and NV border. It was detected by radar and was formed by the actual smoke cloud (which also produced a lot of lightning) and there was even a tornado warning issued by the NWS.

yup I know that but thanks for your message. I'm sure folks here will benefit from the technical jargon. I was just trying to lighten up the conversation Guess it didn't come across that way. Although we don't hear those terms up here in Northern Nevada, I sure heard them a lot when I lived in the bay area.

So can I safely assume from your technical weather knowledge that "Pineapple Express" doesn't mean that Hawaii is building a fast transportation system to ship pineapples to California ?

 

[bmah]

180 without power in Lafayette... stay warm bmah!

I see that now, not close to me but thanks for the thought!

(Wow those people have been out since yesterday afternoon, and that’s actually in a retirement community, not good. )

Bruce.

PS. No Stormwatch here.

 

[Electrph]

Which city or region do you live? There are currently a lot of warnings and advisories for much of CA and OR

mine just activated (i quickly lost that bet of it not being activated here )
tulare county

 

[jboy210]

no NWS warnings for Auburn either. Why is SW on? Do you think it is related to the big app glitch yesterday? Seems too coincidental

NWS warnings are just one factor they use with enabling SW. I believe another one is what the utility is doing. And PG&E has been pre-positioning crews around the Sierra foothills since Wednesday according to the news. Also, PG&E has its own meteorology groups that make forecasts particular to the needs and requirements of PG&E.

P.S. No Storm Watch in Pleasanton. Yet ...

 

[jboy210]

Atmospheric river is an actual meteorological term that has been used by meteorologists (actual meteorologists, not weather journalist on the news who call themselves meteorologists) for about 30 years. It was first used in a research paper after fluid dynamic weather models became more detailed.

Firenados are also real things. They are true tornados spawned in pyrocumulus clouds. Many people or even the media may look at a fire whorl (which is more like a dust devil, except with flames) and call it a firenado even though it is not. Firenado's are extremely rare. There was one a couple of years ago in the LoyaltonFire on the CA and NV border. It was detected by radar and was formed by the actual smoke cloud (which also produced a lot of lightning) and there was even a tornado warning issued by the NWS.

I think the term Atmospheric River is a good description for this. One TV news guy pointed out that the previous Atmospheric River in October was carrying more water into California than the typical flow of the Mississippi River.

 

[ucmndd]

Mine just activated, Madera county foothills

 

[jboy210]

NWS just issued a winter weather warning for the next 3 days.

==========================================

.Dangerous Winter Storm to Produce Very Heavy Snow with Strong
Winds and Whiteout Conditions...

.A strong winter storm will bring very heavy snow to the
mountains of northern California. Snow will first arrive to
northwestern Shasta County this afternoon including portions of
I-5 north of Redding, spreading southeast into the southern
Cascades and northern Sierra tonight and Sunday morning. Snow
levels will gradually lower over time through late Monday and
Tuesday. Expect tremendous snow accumulations at pass levels with
yardsticks required for snow measurement. This will results in
significant travel delays with extremely difficult to impossible
travel over the mountains. Strong winds will further reduce
visibilities during this event with whiteout conditions.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with near-zero visibilities, making travel
difficult to impossible. Damage to trees and power lines is
possible. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 feet. Localized
accumulations exceeding 6 feet at higher elevations.

* WHERE...Western Plumas County/Lassen Park and West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada including Interstate 80 over Donner
Pass, Highway 50 over Echo Summit and Highway 88 over Carson
Pass.

* WHEN...10 PM Saturday to 10 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times with white-out conditions. Snow levels
will drop to as low as 2000 ft by late Tuesday afternoon or
evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means there will be snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Travel is not recommended while
the warning is in effect. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Expires in 3 days.
6 mins ago • Source: National Weather Service

 

[RKCRLR]

My stormwatch activated yesterday late morning in Garden Valley, CA (foothills north-east of Sacramento).

 

[brucet999]

I don't understand how this year is the first year I've ever heard the term "atmospheric river". Like wtf... what happened to "lots of rain" or "heavy rain"? And how is it that people are all worried about losing power from heavy rains all of a sudden??? What's next, are we going to get "Omicron rain"?

PS, I'm setting my reserve to 75%.

The term has been used in meteorological circles for many years. I think the first such event to be documented as an atmospheric river event was the 45-day storm in 1861-62 that flooded Sacramento and most of the Central Valley.

 

[jboy210]

The term has been used in meteorological circles for many years. I think the first such event to be documented as an atmospheric river event was the 45-day storm in 1861-62 that flooded Sacramento and most of the Central Valley.

Is that the storm which caused Governor Stanford to go to his Inauguration in a boat?

 

[getakey]

NWS warnings are just one factor they use with enabling SW. I believe another one is what the utility is doing. And PG&E has been pre-positioning crews around the Sierra foothills since Wednesday according to the news. Also, PG&E has its own meteorology groups that make forecasts particular to the needs and requirements of PG&E.

P.S. No Storm Watch in Pleasanton. Yet ...

I suspect there is a system feed of warnings by ZIP code to Tesla from NWS. Do you think PG&E notifies Tesla that they are preparing for outages?

 

[jboy210]

I suspect there is a system feed of warnings by ZIP code to Tesla from NWS. Do you think PG&E notifies Tesla that they are preparing for outages?

For planned PSPS events PG&E sends notices to many people including customers. So I assume Tesla gets similar notices.

 

[MJ_CA_2019]

Storm watch activated in town in Reedley CA today.

 

[wwu123]

Got it!

On this issue, I once approached our insurer about getting insurance against water or mud coming downhill. They said that as a rule they insure only against rising water. Oh well...

I've personally experienced two flash floods that caused property damage in residential areas during storms. Even if the water is originating from uphill, and not downhill, the damage to homes from flooding seems to be mostly coming from the water rising in your home, unless it's from a dam breaking or a tsunami. So I think flood insurance would cover it. Now if it's rocks, mud and debris, which frequently happens say in Hawaii neighborhoods that back against the steep mountains, they're coming downhill. But I think typically regular homeowner's insurance, not flood insurance, will cover that - just read over the summer about some big boulders that came down into 2-3 houses near my old neighborhood there.

 

[BGbreeder]

I've personally experienced two flash floods that caused property damage in residential areas during storms. Even if the water is originating from uphill, and not downhill, the damage to homes from flooding seems to be mostly coming from the water rising in your home, unless it's from a dam breaking or a tsunami. So I think flood insurance would cover it. Now if it's rocks, mud and debris, which frequently happens say in Hawaii neighborhoods that back against the steep mountains, they're coming downhill. But I think typically regular homeowner's insurance, not flood insurance, will cover that - just read over the summer about some big boulders that came down into 2-3 houses near my old neighborhood there.

Yes, that is actually the sort of thing I had in mind insuring against, rocks and debris flows.

 

[brucet999]

Is that the storm which caused Governor Stanford to go to his Inauguration in a boat?

Yep

In Southern California, the Santa Ana river flowed so over-full that it wiped out settlements and dragged so much sand, gravel and silt with it that it formed the Balboa Peninsula at what is now Newport Beach, cutting off the San Diego creek from the ocean and creating a new bay.

 

[getakey]

For planned PSPS events PG&E sends notices to many people including customers. So I assume Tesla gets similar notices.

Agree for planned events, but what about this storm? Are there automatic notices to Tesla or someone manually informs them?

 

[itsc]

Agree for planned events, but what about this storm? Are there automatic notices to Tesla or someone manually informs them?

There is an app for FEMA warnings. I presume it taps into an automatic system.