I think the question was where you got the 469 and 260 numbers but I think I quickly found your source:
Tesla February Registrations in China Tumble, JL Warren Says - Bloomberg Business
BTW, this is confused by another report that said 120 for January but that may have been new orders booked as opposed to deliveries.
I don't think the 120 number was orders (that would be absolutely dismal). I think that it is deliveries. This falls between the estimate of 10 imported and 469 registered. If it was orders, it would be a very bad leak from the Tesla China team.
Can you please elaborate on your China number (1353)?
Is this an estimate?
What is the input to get to that number?
Is that number registrations from Tesla / scalpers, sales from Tesla / scalpers or deliveries from Tesla / scalpers?
To my opinion this China figure is way too high.
He got the 1353 number by taking the registrations numbers for January (469) and February (260) and then taking the midpoint of the Bloomberg information that Chinese sales rocketed 130-150% from February to March. With this, he got 624 cars in China, or 1353 cars in Q1. However, this isn't conservative per se. There were reports that Tesla sold 120 cars in January (for reference, the import number was 10 and the registrations was 469). If we adjust these numbers to use this estimate for January, we get 1004 cars.
Now, I also think Insideevs is WAY off for January and February in North America (they have 1100 and 1150). This is only 50 cars higher than Jan+Feb of their last year estimate, and 350 cars lower than Jan+Feb estimate in 2013. Hybrid Cars estimates 1500 cars in January and 1400 cars in February for the US. We also have Canada thrown into the mix, where January registrations were 99 cars.
I'm going to do some sacrilegious things to get an estimate for US+CAN but I think this will make a conservative, yet not a completely erroneous estimate (like the one from InsideEVs). To be fair, its sort of ok to do this because InsideEVs and Hybrid Cars both guess wildly when it comes to the monthly figures anyway. For January, I will average together Hybrid Cars estimate and InsideEVs estimate (minus 99 cars for Canada because InsideEVs does NA total, not US) to get 1250 cars (rounded down), we will add back the 99 Canadian cars later. Then, for February, I will just take the Hybrid Cars estimate of 1400 and in order to make it conservative, I will say that number includes Canada. For March, I will just use InsideEVs number of 2450. This gets us to 5,199 cars in NA for Q1.
So there's my estimate (adjusted from Zak333's estimate):
NA: 5,199 cars
Europe: 3,007 cars
China: 1,004 cars
Other: 500 cars (UK, Switzerland, Belgium, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia)
Total: 9,710 cars
