2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[aznt1217]

Incredible. These movements feel like the TSLA of old. Take a look at the list below:

- Increasingly diverging analyst sentiment (this has always been the case, but the wedge is larger now)
- Impending Product Launch that is a game changer (Model 3)
- More announcements down the road (Semi)
- Ramp up of Tesla Solar (kind of like the original powerwall)
- Demand Concerns (yet again)
- Crazy reaction to run of the mill news

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Define 'coming weeks'. Two weeks, ten weeks?

Any number of weeks you want to use to defend your argument that "accelerating improvements" for EAD will not increase demand to Model S and Model X.

 

[JBRR]

Short video about the new configurator for model s/x and some speculation.

 

[myusername]

OK. Find my post that says I have input 100k+ units in my DCF for Model 3 deliveries in 2017.

Otherwise, go away.

no.... you... i've already referenced it twice in the past... and everyone on this board is already aware of your over zealousness.

 

[scaesare]

It is great evidence of the failure of the X that the S again outsold the X in Q2. In an era where sedans are out of flavor and everyone is buying SUVs, Tesla can't sell more SUVs than sedans. The X will always be an incredibly expensive missed opportunity for Tesla. It's been Musk's only major mistake, but it was a huge one (yes, life-threatening for Tesla). Instead of making tons of money off the X, it will take years to recoup the R&D as well as warranty repair costs of the FWDs.

I know I sound like a broken record about the X, but man, it bothers me so much that we'd be at a TOTALLY different place in the life of Tesla had they kept it simple. Now I know why Elon once stated that profitability would come in 2020 after earlier stating 2017 - he KNEW the X had cost Tesla 3 years of profit.

I haven't tracked it carefully, but when looked at the Q2 numbers just released.... it struck me that the X sales seem to be climbing as a relative percentage.

But again, I haven't verified that... if nobody else chimes in who may have that info handy, I'll go see if I can dig it up.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

no.... you... i've already referenced it twice in the past... and everyone on this board is already aware of your over zealousness.

Oh. OK. So you can't find my post where you claim I made a prediction and you accused me of lying.

This is my shocked face

Now, go away. I've blocked you months before, and I'm tired of clicking the "Show Ignored" button to find out you're making all these unsubstantiated claims about me. You should really reconsider your life and think about the life you want to lead in the future.

 

[AlMc]

Any number of weeks you want to use to defend your argument that "accelerating improvements" to EAD will not increase demand to Model S and Model X.

Short term: (This Q): IMO (because after all that is what all we both have): The model '3' is osbourning, the S. People want to see the '3', perhaps even drive a '3' before committing to either an S or a '3'. The X should be outselling the S but for some reason is not.

Making improvements in the S and X in this time frame will not help sales considerably as people want to see/drive a '3'.

Long term: The '3' will be the driver of 'profits' and Tesla/TSLA will be fine. Short term (10-12 weeks) not so.

I have no problem holding TSLA long term, Short term will be rocky.

Work to be done. So, I may not be able to respond to any further discussion for a bit.

 

[dc_h]

Sorry, you are correct about #2. I misread it. I still stand by the rest of my post.

Edit: Please consider using your sources to check on the number of vehicles at local Scs. I just heard from another former mod on TMC that his local Sc was filled with S and Xs at the end of June as well.

**Would be interested in hearing about other people's experiences with their local SC's inventory levels at the end of June**

I didn't see end of June, but I did see start of July. Our Westmont site had perhaps 7 inventory cars and 5 customer cars. They delivered about 100 in the last week of June-I originally thought the number was 200, but was corrected. This was a record number for Chicago western suburbs. I don't see Tesla peaking in our area, just picking up in fact. I can see California maybe being a bit saturated. Bottom line is big inventory end of June, not so much early July.

 

[schonelucht]

OK. Find my post that says I have input 100k+ units in my DCF for Model 3 deliveries in 2017.

How much Model 3 units do you have in your model for 2017?

 

[elasalle]

5k delivered in 1 week for 2017 and 10k delivered in 1 week for 2018.

"would you be confused and disappointed?... yes... but you would be confused because the current guidance they've given for 2017 through 2018 is anywhere from 15k M3 to 500k M3."

You are using weekly numbers for lower end and yearly numbers for higher end - to try to make your point

 

[ValueAnalyst]

How much Model 3 units do you have in your model for 2017?

25k for 3Q17 and 50k for 4Q17 before, as I underestimated the time it takes to take delivery of parts, assemble them into cars and deliver to customers.

This weekend, I revised it to 2k for 3Q17 and 35k for 4Q17 after Elon's comments. The exponential rate of increase, however, increased my confidence in my 2018 projections, which is really what matters to the future of Model 3 and the company.

 

[viKtor slamet]

Wow.. -$20 in a few hours.. at this rate we would be -$60 by end of day, $290 close. By next week we could be $0.. What are we supposed to do??

 

[WarpedOne]

What are we supposed to do??

 

[Thumper]

I expect Model X sales to pick up now that a fold-flat second and third row is available. This is the functionality that makes SUVs so versatile and has been unavailable until now. This should always have been an option. I'll go one step further and guess that the fold flat will outsell the power lean forward second row option.

 

[Reciprocity]

I expect Model X sales to pick up now that a fold-flat second and third row is available. This is the functionality that makes SUVs so versatile and has been unavailable until now. This should always have been an option. I'll go one step further and guess that the fold flat will outsell the power lean forward second row option.

Yeah except that the problem has never been demand. The problem is and has always been supply. But yeah, better options are better for demand as well, it could also point to the fact that Tesla is expecting supply to tick up over the next 2 quarters to better capitalize on the demand.

 

[MitchJi]

Ok; I'm glad we now agree about #2.

When you get a chance, can you then please walk me through your thought process regarding how upcoming improvements to EAD, which Elon said will accelerate in the coming weeks, not lead to higher demand Model S and Model X in the coming weeks?

The M3 is going to be much better than expected which would put more pressure on the MS-MX, except that Tesla will reduce their prices enough to increase the MS-MX demand.

Improved EAD won't help with the current problem because that helps the M3 and the MS-MX squally.

 

[Leo9]

Model 3 will be fine, but I'm not happy with S and X demand.. We have seen 0 growth since Q3 2016. I was expecting 125k S and X this year. This is never going to happen.
Goldman Sachs PT is a joke, but I think Tamberrino is right with the "peak" narrative on current models, at least for now.
Q2 earnings will be quite bad and we could see 0% y/y growth for the first time next quarter.
Model 3 is just around the corner, I understand that of course, but still I would like to see growth in other areas too.

 

[neroden]

I just watched a video of James Albertine. Pretty positive, but he did mention something that has not occurred to me. In the past Tesla has given the number of cars in transit, this quarter it was cars used as loaners and test vehicles.

ln other words a demand problem. I'm not worried about this because I believe that Tesla can easily increase demand by reducing their prices, and I believe that they plan to do that.

While Model S has hit a demand plateau at current prices (which are, by the way, higher than prices when I bought mine), I believe Model X has not. It had very serious initial production speed problems.

The need to supply current-model cars to the showrooms is serious, and I think is actually a priority over satisfying reservation holders at this point (now that the typical waiting time is down to a month or less). Now, this is only true because of *relatively weak* demand (as opposed to "two year reservation list" demand), but it looks to me like they still are production-constrained on Model X.

The thing about supplying current-model cars to the showrooms is that the previous showroom cars have to be dumped on the discounted inventory. This has clearly happened. I'm not sure whether any new cars were specifically built for inventory (bonaire might be able to figure this out) but I think the larger factor is that rotating out the entire showroom fleet leaves quite the pile of cars behind.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Model 3 will be fine, but I'm not happy with S and X demand.. We have seen 0 growth since Q3 2016. I was expecting 125k S and X this year. This is never going to happen.
Goldman Sachs PT is a joke, but I think Tamberrino is right with the "peak" narrative on current models, at least for now.
Q2 earnings will be quite bad and we could see 0% y/y growth for the first time next quarter.
Model 3 is just around the corner, I understand that of course, but still I would like to see growth in other areas too.

Elon did say that the max the S&X line could do for a year was 100k.

 

[neroden]

Model 3 will be fine, but I'm not happy with S and X demand.. We have seen 0 growth since Q3 2016. I was expecting 125k S and X this year. This is never going to happen.

They can't produce that many on the line.