2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[GoTslaGo]

While Model S has hit a demand plateau at current prices (which are, by the way, higher than prices when I bought mine), I believe Model X has not. It had very serious initial production speed problems.

The need to supply current-model cars to the showrooms is serious, and I think is actually a priority over satisfying reservation holders at this point (now that the typical waiting time is down to a month or less). Now, this is only true because of *relatively weak* demand (as opposed to "two year reservation list" demand), but it looks to me like they still are production-constrained on Model X.

The thing about supplying current-model cars to the showrooms is that the previous showroom cars have to be dumped on the discounted inventory. This has clearly happened. I'm not sure whether any new cars were specifically built for inventory (bonaire might be able to figure this out) but I think the larger factor is that rotating out the entire showroom fleet leaves quite the pile of cars behind.

I know lots of people who will absolutely NOT buy a non-inventory car. They need to have driven it to decide to buy (and that specific car...).

 

[neroden]

I expect Model X sales to pick up now that a fold-flat second and third row is available. This is the functionality that makes SUVs so versatile and has been unavailable until now. This should always have been an option. I'll go one step further and guess that the fold flat will outsell the power lean forward second row option.

I'll agree with that bet.

 

[Reciprocity]

"would you be confused and disappointed?... yes... but you would be confused because the current guidance they've given for 2017 through 2018 is anywhere from 15k M3 to 500k M3."

You are using weekly numbers for lower end and yearly numbers for higher end - to try to make your point

Exactly, the claim has never been for 500k M3 in 2018, only 500k total cars produced in 2018, which would include S/X at around 120k or 2400/w which is also a number they have hit before, so 380k M3 and exiting 2018 at 500k/y rate, or 10k per week for 50 weeks (2 weeks for maintenance). What that means is between Jan 2018 and Dec 2018, production is expected to increase over the 12 months from 5k/w to 10k/w for model 3 and maintain roughly 2400/w for S/X.

I also believe that production/deliveries will be timed to maximize Fed credits in 2018. An article today on Electrek discussed the same. Some of this will be delivering more S/X outside the US while delivering as many 3s in the US in 2H2017 so that the 200,001st car delivered in the US is done on the first day of 2018, with huge numbers being delivered in the first half of 2018 in the US.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Elon did say that the max the S&X line could do for a year was 100k.

He said it was optimized for 100k. I don't believe he said "max."

 

[aznt1217]

Did some digging on the Goldman Sachs note and the source of the opinion. Put it this way, between work history, social media history, and performance... I am not worried and feel bad for anybody who takes Dave Tamberrino's opinion to heart.

 

[DurandalAI]

I think this should be viewed as a vote of confidence for the future of BEVs, but of course bears will spin it as "see, the old guard isn't sitting on their laurels."
Daimler announces new $740 million battery factory in China for Mercedes-Benz’s EVs

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think this should be viewed as a vote of confidence for the future of BEVs, but of course bears will spin it as "see, the old guard isn't sitting on their laurels."
Daimler announces new $740 million battery factory in China for Mercedes-Benz’s EVs

It's not a coincidence that Daimler news don't talk about the planned factory's capacity.

I estimate that $740m battery factory will not be able to produce more than 8 GWh annually by 2020.

This compares to Gigafactory 1's planned 2020 capacity of 150 GWh.

I also expect Gigafactories 3, 4, 5, and 6 to start coming online in 2020, for a total end-2020 run-rate capacity of 200 GWh.

 

[wnorris]

A big part of the recent schadenfreude surrounding the recent M3 announcements has to be related to the inside information that came from the Model 3 Owner's Club. This really ratcheted expectations where I believe most had not expected much in July.

I am not trying to knock anyone, but going from several thousands to 30 in July is not very accurate information. Hopefully he can clarify or
at a minimum vet the information a little better before releasing to the public.

 

[erthquake]

no.... you... i've already referenced it twice in the past... and everyone on this board is already aware of your over zealousness.

You're asking him to prove a negative, another indication of your trollish behavior on this forum.

 

[adiggs]

Wow.. -$20 in a few hours.. at this rate we would be -$60 by end of day, $290 close. By next week we could be $0.. What are we supposed to do??

Pray for the chance to buy for $290. Or even better - $150!

I'd be taking out money on my home equity line for another crack at TSLA at $30.

 

[SpaceCash]

It is great evidence of the failure of the X that the S again outsold the X in Q2. In an era where sedans are out of flavor and everyone is buying SUVs, Tesla can't sell more SUVs than sedans. The X will always be an incredibly expensive missed opportunity for Tesla. It's been Musk's only major mistake, but it was a huge one (yes, life-threatening for Tesla). Instead of making tons of money off the X, it will take years to recoup the R&D as well as warranty repair costs of the FWDs.

I know I sound like a broken record about the X, but man, it bothers me so much that we'd be at a TOTALLY different place in the life of Tesla had they kept it simple. Now I know why Elon once stated that profitability would come in 2020 after earlier stating 2017 - he KNEW the X had cost Tesla 3 years of profit.

I made an account here just now purely to call out this post as ridiculous.
This post is ridiculous.
The X is about the most amazing car on the road, and here in Hollywood they are plentiful and oh-so-sexy. My first Tesla will be a fully loaded X, probably order in about a year. The X is iconic and supremely kickass, an aspirational vehicle to many.

How do I add my dang profile picture to this account? Surprisingly not intuitive

 

[FredTMC]

A big part of the recent schadenfreude surrounding the recent M3 announcements has to be related to the inside information that came from the Model 3 Owner's Club. This really ratcheted expectations where I believe most had not expected much in July.

I am not trying to knock anyone, but going from several thousands to 30 in July is not very accurate information. Hopefully he can clarify or
at a minimum vet the information a little better before releasing to the public.

Yes, those predictions from "insiders" turned out to be untrue

 

[erthquake]

I made an account here just now purely to call out this post as ridiculous.
This post is ridiculous.
The X is about the most amazing car on the road, and here in Hollywood they are plentiful and oh-so-sexy. My first Tesla will be a fully loaded X, probably order in about a year. The X is iconic and supremely kickass, an aspirational vehicle to many.

How do I add my dang profile picture to this account? Surprisingly not intuitive

You can't add a profile photo until after you've made your fifth post.

 

[22522]

Yes, those predictions from "insiders" turned out to be untrue

Am Ok with July, August and September, but Tesla is still a lot better off if the rate in December is double the plan of record.

The one sig fig math says find a way...

 

[MitchJi]

I am not trying to knock anyone, but going from several thousands to 30 in July is not very accurate information. Hopefully he can clarify or
at a minimum vet the information a little better before releasing to the public.

Several of us pointed out when that was first posted that he has a really poor track record, and that the chances of having several thousand cars produced by now were close to zero. If you believed that you should start paying more attention to the quality of your sources.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Tencent was down 4% this week,

 

[Intl Professor]

Meanwhile, back at the political ranch, some aspects of the macro environment are scary. Should effect overall market, which is normal today, except Tesla is down and Nasdaq up at the moment.

‘Self-Restraint’ Is Only Thing Stopping War With North Korea, U.S. General Says

But the stage is set for problems surrounding the clash or non clash of the titans in Germany. Looks like China and Russia are in a united push concerning North Korea.

Russia and China tell N.Korea, U.S. and S.Korea to embrace de-escalation plan

A real challenge for US diplomacy. Sometimes there's a kind of Newton's third law in politics; often more a feedback mechanism--positive or negative. Like driving a car. It makes a lot of difference if you are driving backwards or forwards. But that's explaining by analogy—what theory does for scientific facts.

So too, I suppose, for markets.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Meanwhile, back at the political ranch, some aspects of the macro environment are scary. Should effect overall market, which is normal today, except Tesla is down and Nasdaq up at the moment.

‘Self-Restraint’ Is Only Thing Stopping War With North Korea, U.S. General Says

But the stage is set for problems surrounding the clash or non clash of the titans in Germany. Looks like China and Russia are in a united push concerning North Korea.

Russia and China tell N.Korea, U.S. and S.Korea to embrace de-escalation plan

A real challenge for US diplomacy. Sometimes there's a kind of Newton's third law in politics; often more a feedback mechanism--positive or negative. Like driving a car. It makes a lot of difference if you are driving backwards or forwards. But that's explaining by analogy.

The sad part about this is that I do not believe N.Korea will de-escalate. They don't trust China or Russia. 3rd generation goal is to cement his power. While the overt bluster is against the USA/South Korea/Japan, the subtext is also directed toward China and Russia (recall he has killed everyone in government who was remotely connected to China and put a huge middle finger up to China by killing his brother in law...who was under china's protection). Everyone else has the capacity to de-escalate, EXCEPT N. Korea, IMHO.

 

[neroden]

Meanwhile, back at the political ranch, some aspects of the macro environment are scary. Should effect overall market, which is normal today, except Tesla is down and Nasdaq up at the moment.

‘Self-Restraint’ Is Only Thing Stopping War With North Korea, U.S. General Says

But the stage is set for problems surrounding the clash or non clash of the titans in Germany. Looks like China and Russia are in a united push concerning North Korea.

Russia and China tell N.Korea, U.S. and S.Korea to embrace de-escalation plan

A real challenge for US diplomacy. Sometimes there's a kind of Newton's third law in politics; often more a feedback mechanism--positive or negative. Like driving a car. It makes a lot of difference if you are driving backwards or forwards. But that's explaining by analogy—what theory does for scientific facts.

Ugh. OK, so here's a scenario. If the US does incompetently blunder into a war with North Korea, I would not be surprised to see China invade North Korea officially in support of the US, under the pretext of "establishing security" (basically kicking out Kim Jong-Un, who has been causing them trouble for a long time.) The North Korean missiles are much more of a threat to China than to the US, and China doesn't want the US next door. It would be a pretty slick diplomatic move because the US would have no excuse to complain about it. China could probably even run it through the United Nations and get it past the Security Council.

I really hope the US does not blunder into war with North Korea, but it could be a lot worse. Essentially every country in the world thinks that the North Korean goevrnment is a bucket of trouble now; it has no real allies. This is much better than blundering into war with a real nation.

If China isn't massing troops on the North Korean border and preparing their defenses and war games against a North Korean attack, I'd be surprised.

I noticed that the city from which North Korea is launching the missiles is on the west coast. I know this is supposedly directed against the US, but, uh... looks to me like the target he's really picking a fight with is China.

 

[Buddyroe]

I made an account here just now purely to call out this post as ridiculous.
This post is ridiculous.
The X is about the most amazing car on the road, and here in Hollywood they are plentiful and oh-so-sexy. My first Tesla will be a fully loaded X, probably order in about a year. The X is iconic and supremely kickass, an aspirational vehicle to many.

How do I add my dang profile picture to this account? Surprisingly not intuitive

Unfortunately, people who are actually buying a car right now don't agree with you - other wise X sales would be much higher. I think that is pretty much common sense.