everman
Member
Climbed from $306 to $308 into the close, but not as strong as I'd like. I'd actually be ok with just some consolidation here to re-establish a floor that we can build on. The stronger $300+ the better.
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I emailed Tesla IR about the possibility of video or a picture of SN#1 coming off the assembly line. Thought it would be good for morale.
Got a quick response! Thanks IR!
Reply: Most likely EM will tweet it
Got a quick response! Thanks IR!
Reply: Most likely EM will tweet it
Serial Number aka VIN sequence 1. First car.
The first Model 3 off of the assembley line. Serial number 1.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I wish Tesla would just use standard industry nomenclature; Job 1
ValueAnalyst
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ValueAnalyst
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Krugerrand
Meow
The factory that isn't a factory and doesn't exist is looking mighty busy these days.
My survey/inspection was done last week, still don't have a design or quote or anything like that. We need an SDG&E inspection of some kind of our panel and meter before they can finalize.
ValueAnalyst
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Thank you. Did they give a timeline? Also, any guesses for "sold out way into 2018" would be helpful.
The following is my Solar Roof forecast for the next four quarters based on Elon's "it'll be a very slow ramp up" comment and my very low gross margin expectations for the production until Gigafactory 2 ramps up (2019/20?).
No, I didn't hear any good gossip. We are known to Tesla as early adopters, and in the right kind of area for them, so I'm not sure our experience would be typical anyway.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Jordan and Bradly D'Souza set out in a Tesla Model S 85D on July 1st from LA to NY and (read: they f'ing killed it) set a new record by arriving in 51 Hours and 47 Minutes, besting the previous record held by Alex Roy and friends of 55 hours by a whopping 3 hours and 13 minutes. Awesome video and great music.
I made a post here back on December 2nd of 2016 and March 10th of 2017. I never post on here, but my first post on December 2 was due to the EXTREME negativity we were seeing, same with my re-post of that message on March 10 - EXTREME negativity. Coincidentally, the post on December 2 was the $180 low and the post on March 10 was the low of the correction the occurred after the run to $280.
Well...I'm here again...feel free to check my posting history for verification...but please...read below:
Longtime viewer of this forum (and others like it) chiming in here. Loving the extreme negativity that I've been seeing lately on here and just about everywhere else you could possibly look. Been following Tesla for almost a decade and I have to say, I don't think it has ever been like this in awhile.
I just want to extend my thanks to those who short the stock...
We wouldn't be here without you. You've funded this company's growth and I look forward to the future that you have helped create. Without the short squeezes that you perpetuated, that our wonderful CEO took advantage of, we wouldn't be here. Those billions of dollars of capital raises, at high share prices, that you helped support through your convictions against Tesla, provided the foundation for a company that will change the world over the next 20 years.
Without your bouts of panic, from $30 to $190, from $120 to $260, from $175 to $290, from $185 to $280, and from $135 to $270, Tesla would have billions of dollars less to build and fund their new production lines. Thank you for donating those funds to the cause.
As we stand now, with more than 30 million shares sold short, I thank you for once again proving that the market demand for shares of TSLA is far greater than the natural supply.
Sincerely,
A 6-Year Long Shareholder
Well...I'm here again...feel free to check my posting history for verification...but please...read below:
Longtime viewer of this forum (and others like it) chiming in here. Loving the extreme negativity that I've been seeing lately on here and just about everywhere else you could possibly look. Been following Tesla for almost a decade and I have to say, I don't think it has ever been like this in awhile.
I just want to extend my thanks to those who short the stock...
We wouldn't be here without you. You've funded this company's growth and I look forward to the future that you have helped create. Without the short squeezes that you perpetuated, that our wonderful CEO took advantage of, we wouldn't be here. Those billions of dollars of capital raises, at high share prices, that you helped support through your convictions against Tesla, provided the foundation for a company that will change the world over the next 20 years.
Without your bouts of panic, from $30 to $190, from $120 to $260, from $175 to $290, from $185 to $280, and from $135 to $270, Tesla would have billions of dollars less to build and fund their new production lines. Thank you for donating those funds to the cause.
As we stand now, with more than 30 million shares sold short, I thank you for once again proving that the market demand for shares of TSLA is far greater than the natural supply.
Sincerely,
A 6-Year Long Shareholder
And here is the follow up that is worth reading from 12/3/16 that I posted:
Also...
We should welcome people like Mark Spiegel, Australian Man, Montana Skeptic, and others who display and spread the most extreme doubt about Tesla. While a normal display and level of doubt will just end up keeping potential investors away, an EXTREME display or level of doubt brings new people into the game...the kind of people that have a hidden value to long investors...
Recently, Spiegel shared with us the way he sees Tesla and it's shareholders. During his presentation to a crowd of investors (who paid to listen to him), he discussed Tesla shareholders as lemmings. While most investors makes decisions based on facts and figures and results, a person like Spiegel shows us that he makes decisions based on emotions and feelings. For him to share that with us was a gift...a glimpse into the clouded mind of a short seller...consumed by emotion, feelings and absolute certainty.
I personally believe one of the most important traits in life is being able to admit that you may be wrong. A great many longs understand this. We understand that past or present results may not be indicative of future results. We understand the risks and accept them. In my mind, many results are a coin flip - maybe I'll be right, maybe I'll be wrong - there are no guarantees. Risk is a natural part of investing, absolute certainty is not.
In Tesla short sellers, we see that important trait missing.
As Mr. Spiegel said, he feels that Tesla is a Zero. He (and others) feel, with absolute certainty, that there is an impossible amount of obstacles in front of Tesla and they will not overcome them. His emotions tell him that he is absolutely correct and his feelings tell him that he can not be wrong. He believes that it is all but certain that Tesla will fail. He sees absolutely no path forward for Tesla. In his mind, the future of Tesla is already set in stone. He sees no risks in his investment decisions.
To ignore the possibility of being wrong, to ignore risk, Mr. Spiegel (and other short sellers) fall into the trap of letting emotions override logical thought. I'm glad I'm not part of any group that believes that they can not be wrong. To be part of that group, would require surrendering logic and common sense, in the belief that emotion will lead them down a better path.
To be involved in the shorting of Tesla is to be part of a group of people who cannot see risk because of their emotions.
And a wise man once said, "Only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline, do you get rational behavior."
Also...
We should welcome people like Mark Spiegel, Australian Man, Montana Skeptic, and others who display and spread the most extreme doubt about Tesla. While a normal display and level of doubt will just end up keeping potential investors away, an EXTREME display or level of doubt brings new people into the game...the kind of people that have a hidden value to long investors...
Recently, Spiegel shared with us the way he sees Tesla and it's shareholders. During his presentation to a crowd of investors (who paid to listen to him), he discussed Tesla shareholders as lemmings. While most investors makes decisions based on facts and figures and results, a person like Spiegel shows us that he makes decisions based on emotions and feelings. For him to share that with us was a gift...a glimpse into the clouded mind of a short seller...consumed by emotion, feelings and absolute certainty.
I personally believe one of the most important traits in life is being able to admit that you may be wrong. A great many longs understand this. We understand that past or present results may not be indicative of future results. We understand the risks and accept them. In my mind, many results are a coin flip - maybe I'll be right, maybe I'll be wrong - there are no guarantees. Risk is a natural part of investing, absolute certainty is not.
In Tesla short sellers, we see that important trait missing.
As Mr. Spiegel said, he feels that Tesla is a Zero. He (and others) feel, with absolute certainty, that there is an impossible amount of obstacles in front of Tesla and they will not overcome them. His emotions tell him that he is absolutely correct and his feelings tell him that he can not be wrong. He believes that it is all but certain that Tesla will fail. He sees absolutely no path forward for Tesla. In his mind, the future of Tesla is already set in stone. He sees no risks in his investment decisions.
To ignore the possibility of being wrong, to ignore risk, Mr. Spiegel (and other short sellers) fall into the trap of letting emotions override logical thought. I'm glad I'm not part of any group that believes that they can not be wrong. To be part of that group, would require surrendering logic and common sense, in the belief that emotion will lead them down a better path.
To be involved in the shorting of Tesla is to be part of a group of people who cannot see risk because of their emotions.
And a wise man once said, "Only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline, do you get rational behavior."
Investor or speculator?
Right now my investment return is not positive. I expect this to be corrected in time to purchase the model 3 - a May 10th reservation date, so there is some time.
A friend told me to sell everything at $370, but I decided that I did not want to swing trade Tesla. It is an investment in people serving people. I don't know of a company I would rather invest in... Cash holdings are sort of a vote against people.
When my time comes, I may not be able to afford a Model 3, but Tesla stock is the right place for my money to be.
Right now my investment return is not positive. I expect this to be corrected in time to purchase the model 3 - a May 10th reservation date, so there is some time.
A friend told me to sell everything at $370, but I decided that I did not want to swing trade Tesla. It is an investment in people serving people. I don't know of a company I would rather invest in... Cash holdings are sort of a vote against people.
When my time comes, I may not be able to afford a Model 3, but Tesla stock is the right place for my money to be.
wsucougz
Member
I'd also like to add something new, just some quick math that I think people forget about.
Dealerships exist because of the fantastic profits they make as middleman...otherwise they wouldn't exist. As a former court financial auditor, I can tell you that the average car salesmen make a lot of money. Given my investment in Tesla, I paid extra special attention to ANY financial information regarding people working at dealerships. In a city of a million people, every car salesman that came into court made at least $80,000.00 in a city where the average salary isn't even half that.
If you combined the value of GM's dealerships to GM, GM the company would be valued at a lot more than it is now.
Tesla is the manufacturer and the seller.
A proper comparison is not Tesla to GM, it is Tesla to GM and all its dealership partners. If you do that, you'd see that Tesla's value is MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH lower than GM and its dealership's value.
I personally have lower expectations for Tesla. I don't need them becoming the next GM!
If Tesla can capture 0.75% of the 2017 Global Car Market in 2020, or just 2.9% of the 2017 US Car Market and 0% of the 2017 World Car Market in 2020, they will sell approximately 500,00 cars a year.
500,000 cars x $60,000 ASP = $30 Billion. If after all expenses and yada yada yada is taken into account, Tesla GAAP profits are equal to what GM makes on each car (WHICH IS A LOW-BALL BECAUSE GM IS STILL USING A DEALERSHIP MODEL), you'll have a company looking like this:
5+ years of at least 50% revenue growth, with high-end products sustaining 20%-25% margins, lower-end products sustaining 10%-15% margins, resulting in profits of approximately $3 Billion.
There are very few companies in this world that have billions of dollars of revenue and are growing that revenue at a rate of at least 50% a year, every year, with plans to grow up to 100% a year if all goes as planned.
If you apply a multiple of 30 to a company like that, which is low if you've followed markets over the years, you'd come to a $90 Billion valuation.
Tesla would still not be as valuable as GM and its dealerships. Not even close. Those dealerships aren't paying those $75,000 a year salesman with fun-coupons. And there are THOUSANDS of GM dealerships.
So, when it doubt, math and logic.
Stocks go up and down and change all the time. Simple math today is simple math tomorrow.
Dealerships exist because of the fantastic profits they make as middleman...otherwise they wouldn't exist. As a former court financial auditor, I can tell you that the average car salesmen make a lot of money. Given my investment in Tesla, I paid extra special attention to ANY financial information regarding people working at dealerships. In a city of a million people, every car salesman that came into court made at least $80,000.00 in a city where the average salary isn't even half that.
If you combined the value of GM's dealerships to GM, GM the company would be valued at a lot more than it is now.
Tesla is the manufacturer and the seller.
A proper comparison is not Tesla to GM, it is Tesla to GM and all its dealership partners. If you do that, you'd see that Tesla's value is MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH lower than GM and its dealership's value.
I personally have lower expectations for Tesla. I don't need them becoming the next GM!
If Tesla can capture 0.75% of the 2017 Global Car Market in 2020, or just 2.9% of the 2017 US Car Market and 0% of the 2017 World Car Market in 2020, they will sell approximately 500,00 cars a year.
500,000 cars x $60,000 ASP = $30 Billion. If after all expenses and yada yada yada is taken into account, Tesla GAAP profits are equal to what GM makes on each car (WHICH IS A LOW-BALL BECAUSE GM IS STILL USING A DEALERSHIP MODEL), you'll have a company looking like this:
5+ years of at least 50% revenue growth, with high-end products sustaining 20%-25% margins, lower-end products sustaining 10%-15% margins, resulting in profits of approximately $3 Billion.
There are very few companies in this world that have billions of dollars of revenue and are growing that revenue at a rate of at least 50% a year, every year, with plans to grow up to 100% a year if all goes as planned.
If you apply a multiple of 30 to a company like that, which is low if you've followed markets over the years, you'd come to a $90 Billion valuation.
Tesla would still not be as valuable as GM and its dealerships. Not even close. Those dealerships aren't paying those $75,000 a year salesman with fun-coupons. And there are THOUSANDS of GM dealerships.
So, when it doubt, math and logic.
Stocks go up and down and change all the time. Simple math today is simple math tomorrow.
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