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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2016.

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  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    My projection for Powerpack installations for the next four quarters. Feedback welcome.

    upload_2017-7-6_12-16-47.png
     
  2. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    My estimates are very close to yours. I'm slightly on the pessimistic side due to lower revenue estimate due to lower TE estimates.
     
  3. erthquake

    erthquake Active Member

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    Exactly. As long as car insurance is required in every state, insurance companies will find a way to price their offerings to ensure profitability. Car insurance is a gravy train. They really only seem to take a hit with major disasters, but they've gotten a lot better in the last 20 years with assessing and appropriately pricing those risks and avoiding the kinds of hits they took with Hurricane Andrew.
     
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  4. SwTslaGrl

    SwTslaGrl Member

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    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down -6.37% YTD. This could increase Tesla ex-US sales profit.
     
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  5. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    How then did a 2017 Toyota Avalon in its 5th year of production before a complete redesign in 2019 pass?

    The 2012 Camry built on the same platform as the 2017 Toyota Avalon failed the IIHS front overlap test.



    There are tradeoffs. IIHS standard requires a much tighter seat belt that reduces the chances of a head injury but increases the chance of broken ribs in an accident. Tesla engineers, obviously, felt reducing the chances of head injury from very low to lower while at the same time increasing the chances of broken ribs substantially was not worth it.
     
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  6. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    There are two ways IIHS gets cars to test. 1) They buy some of the most popular cars in the US to test. 2) Automakers donate their cars to IIHS to test. MB and BMW did not donate S Class or 7 Series and IIHS did not buy them because their sales are not substantial enough in the US.
     
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  7. Ichabod

    Ichabod Member

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    My feedback would be: Interesting, but nothing to base a decision on, because it is conjecture. You have no company guidance, no historical statistics to extrapolate, nothing to base this on. It's as good a guess as any, but it is hard to call it anything more than a guess. Not a bad guess, but a guess nonetheless.
     
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  8. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    I agree, except that Elon guided a "dramatic ramp-up" in storage later this year and I'm using slightly conservative than last quarter's gross margin.

    I agree that there is not much to base TE projections on, so readers should be aware of that caveat. Thanks for pointing it out.
     
  9. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    Another way to look at this IIHS mess .. My understanding is that Tesla came in 3rd in the one test (offset test) and first in the rest. This one test is responsible for 25% of injuries to drivers per IIHS. So worst case, Tesla is the safest car 75% of the time and only the 3rd safest car the other 25% of the time, making it almost impossible for another car to be more safe in the real world. Its not like you are 100% guaranteed to die because you came in 3rd out of hundreds of brands/models? I am also sure that your likely hood of being injured in the other situation isn't just marginally better then the competition, but dramatically. Like the guy who went off the road down a 300ft embankment.

    So the Model S is still the safest car in the world.
     
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  10. elasalle

    elasalle driVIN(188xx) it !!

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    BTW, hope EM doesn't tweet he will give update on SN1 by tomorrow - else might not get into bed on time :)
     
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  11. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    But didn't you hear? Model S is having demand issues and Tesla doesn't make enough money to donate cars eye rolls*
     
  12. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    New GF#1 picture:
    [​IMG]
    and I particularly like this picture showing the current as a portion of the final version:

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Matias

    Matias Active Member

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    Ok. This is in the top three of the most stupid conspiracy theories i've read on the TMC and that is quite an achievement.
     
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  14. Ichabod

    Ichabod Member

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    So crazy question, but where is the parking in the final version?

    i
     
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  15. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    At the other end of the tunnel/ rail line?
    If employees scale with area, I sure wouldn't want to drive to work....
     
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  16. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    Maybe robots don't need parking, or maybe Tesla network will move all the people...
     
  17. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    That looks like a building that is badly in need of parking garageS.

    Besides the benefit of parking somewhere other than the top deck (parking in the shade!)
     
  18. Ichabod

    Ichabod Member

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    At least most of the employees are from the area, so they aren't accustomed to parking under a nice broad oak tree all summer.
     
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  19. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Has anyone seen a post from @TrendTrader007 recently?

    I am curious about his charting as to where he sees TSLA going, and frankly, to make sure he is OK.
     
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  20. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    I see one more attempt to break down the SP before close. Hopefully it fails. Would like to go into AH/tomorrow on an uptick.
     
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