Yeah, it's an exaggeration. You can have super-exponential growth but it's only meaningful over a long enough time period to make a decent curve which we aren't at... and we know the growth will actually be logistic. Very few things in nature follow super-exponential curves. (The classic super-exponential curve would be doubling in the first period, tripling in the second period, quadrupling in the third period, etc.)
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Let me just agree with Fred's comment in the article:
"At the time, the robots were not installed on top, but now we can see that the Kuka robots have been installed on the second platform."
I was wondering how long it would take to go from a bunch of robots in cardboard boxes to a minmally functioning body line. Apparently the answer is "about a month".
I'm glad google gave you an example where someone else, even at a university, uses a poor term. The population growth curve they classify as "superexponential" is really just a plain old exponential growth curve. I didn't take their class, but I assume they are using it in this population growth context because it is a higher rate than is normally seen in population growth models, not because it is actually "more than exponential growth" from a mathematical sense. It still sounds silly in the TE context, especially in light of the growth we have seen since that form of growth was first thrown out there.
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And if you want to follow the guidance of the site you cited, it wouldn't be good for Tesla, as their definition of "superexponential" is one which grows asymptotic. That means there is a barrier on the x axis it never crosses. Since we are talking about a business growth model where time is the x axis, that definition would mean that production will zoom through the roof this year, and be zero after that. I don't think that's what we're after.
Anybody understand the question about "cost" at 25:10? Neoen's answer was "We are."
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Reciprocity
Active Member
This is not 100% true. Many have gone to extremes to afford a model s because nothing else existed. Those people are now waiting on model 3s. That does not mean the S has a demand problem. That is simply a myth and a simpletons way to think about the Model S and its appeal. How much has Model S taken from MB, BMW, Audi and the like. more then likely the bulk of the sales have come from these brands because you can see year over year drops in sales for those brands while Model S goes up. But model S goes up more then the others go down and some of those folks will hold out for model 3 going forward. The big mystery is how much demand will be created by the model 3 hitting the streets in mass and how much demand for model S will that drive. Its impossible to know, but the fact that you will not be able to get a model 3 until early 2019 if you try to reserve one late this year when Model 3 hits the streets and your only alternative is model S or Used and also understand that the Tax credit is being phased out next year, more then likely starting Jan 1 with only 6 months of max credits, the demand for Model S will be off the charts.
The first ones off the line will be larger battery, so yeah.. but I doubt model 3 will be over 290 miles of range with the larger battery and duel motors. I think that will be one of the biggest points of differentiation between S and 3 and they wont want the 3 to be over 300 until they can get more range for the S.
I think the average ASP for model 3 is going to surprise people and be closer to $50k in 2018 and beyond with Duel motors, P version and Tesla network. When you factor in TCO and residual value, the value of the car is so good compared to A4, 3 Series or C class. The only people buying the base model with the smaller battery will be people who are comparing it to a Camry.
Apparently Tesla is supplying the PowerPacks to Neoen. Under some kind of contractual arrangement, South Australia has rights to 70% of the power and Neoen can use 30% to bid in the Australian power/energy markets. It sounds like Tesla only has warranty obligations after the facility is commissioned. The profitability of the award should be discernible in the 4Q17 results disclosed in February 2018.
It appears to me they already had some robots installed on the upper tier back in April.
From the 4/25 Elektrek Article regarding the massive shipment:
At this point, sure if there is any coordination any more--there is a cottage industry in place with the usual suspects that are primed and ready to spin and amplify. Tesla is like Apple, putting git in the headline drives clicks.
I don't know whether Model S has a demand problem or not, but I think you are somewhat contradictory above. If model S buyers are not an entirely different group than 3 buyers, as some people stretched for an S because that was all that is out there, it seems almost certain 3 will/has taken away some S buyers. That doesn't mean there aren't other S buyers who will replace them, but I think is is fairly obvious 3 will take some S demand.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
I am a fine one to talk, but come on kids let's play nice in the sandbox.
Tesla woke up in a good mood today, please do not ruin it for me
The conversation I had with one of my online computer students was he felt more in common and he trusted writers on the web more than his personal relationships. That gave me the creeps; not to mention feeling sad for him. I need to get out of the basement and start painting ~ ahhh the fumes:-(
Tesla woke up in a good mood today, please do not ruin it for me
The conversation I had with one of my online computer students was he felt more in common and he trusted writers on the web more than his personal relationships. That gave me the creeps; not to mention feeling sad for him. I need to get out of the basement and start painting ~ ahhh the fumes:-(
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Does anyone have any thoughts around how operating leverage will evolve over the next few quarters?
I think the two parts should be considered separately: R&D leverage and SG&A leverage
After seeing Gene Munster's projected operating margin for Model 3 of 15%, I note that my estimate of 11% may be too conservative.
An upward adjustment of even half of the difference (2%) would lead to a very significant increase in my intrinsic value estimate.
I think the two parts should be considered separately: R&D leverage and SG&A leverage
After seeing Gene Munster's projected operating margin for Model 3 of 15%, I note that my estimate of 11% may be too conservative.
An upward adjustment of even half of the difference (2%) would lead to a very significant increase in my intrinsic value estimate.
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DurandalAI
Member
I know this is something I've mentioned before, but it would affect ASP of Tesla vehicles if they do put it into place, is that eventually EAP and FSD would become a subscription model instead of a purchased in advance feature. I think that in order to promote the affordability of FSD for Model 3 owners, that either a substantial reduction in the pricing for EAP and FSD must occur, or a subscription/rent-to-own option must be available. In either case, I suspect that once Tesla Mobility is up and running, that FSD will be available if you opt-in to Tesla Mobility while it's being rented out. (FSD available to the TM customers even if the owner hasn't purchased it for themself.)
Reciprocity
Active Member
Taking some demand doesn't necessarily cause a demand "problem" which implies demand is flatting or worse, negative. Some of the motivations to buy a model S will be fulfilled by model 3, but the 7 Series or S class customer is not going to buy a 3. So the model S will continue to have similar impact on those brands as they are stale and model S gets better every day it seems (see new 0-60 numbers and million mile drive train). Demand waning for Model S is simply illogical and a problem of math. I made a huge post on demand but I will try to keep light and summary:
1) There are still 19 states in the US that have some restrictions on selling model S, that probably has more impact the model 3. As those issues get resolved, sales will grow in those areas.
2) Expansion of Supercharger and Service Centers for Model 3 will help sell Model S. More of everything helps S/X.
3) Tesla is still expanding worldwide. UAE and S.Korea most recently. These are not tiny markets for EVs.
4) 2014 going forward coming off leases and getting the newest model. The more time the S is in the market place the more existing customers will come back, at about 90% rate, for another Model S. Some of these folks will opt for a Model 3, but if they are a large luxury owner, which most Model S are, they will stick with S. Again, much bigger impact for S in the positive direction then switching to model 3, though we would all be fools to think some wont downgrade. My guess is that the percent is small and those folks originally probably had Prius and Camry level cars.
In my opinion, Model S has probably hit a high point in terms of market share in the US, but that does not mean sales will not grow, because they will continue to get 40% of the market while existing customers come back to purchase their 2nd and 3rd cars. At some point they will hit a plateau for S, but its not this year or next or even the next one after that as the product is just now reaching maturity in the US and has a long ways to go world wide. Model X is still in its infancy as a product and they just basically finally worked through the reservation back log by finally shipping tons of them overseas and the JUST last week.. literally just last week filled the stores with demo/loaner model Xs. I know because 2 weeks ago I had my car in and they didnt have any Model X loaners and yesterday they did and they said they where completely out of loaners until just recently and had been and are still using CPOs as loaners before they got restocked and that they never had model Xs loaners until last week. Model X has at least 2x the potential market vs the S and the biggest issue is not demand, its supply. They cannot build them fast enough.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
The good news for me is that despite major losses in the last 2 weeks I have no margin call and my total position of TSLA shares plus calls is completely intact. I have not sold a single share or call and have zero intentions of selling anything anytime soon
Last 2 weeks change nothing for me because the long-term trend is it still rapidly and steeply up and I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that over a period of time Tesla is going to handily outperform the stock market. In fact I'm looking forward to putting another million dollars in tesla stock over the next 2 to 3 months timeframe and have 100% confidence that I will make a total fortune on my tesla holdings over the next several months to quarters
Short-term matters absolutely nothing to me I don't care for a few millions here or there it's all part of the game
Last 2 weeks change nothing for me because the long-term trend is it still rapidly and steeply up and I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that over a period of time Tesla is going to handily outperform the stock market. In fact I'm looking forward to putting another million dollars in tesla stock over the next 2 to 3 months timeframe and have 100% confidence that I will make a total fortune on my tesla holdings over the next several months to quarters
Short-term matters absolutely nothing to me I don't care for a few millions here or there it's all part of the game
Nice work. You know how to manage your margin now, I guess! (I remember you saying that you'd suffered a lot of margin calls in the past.)
Any comments about how you managed margin to avoid margin calls when you're as highly leveraged as you are?
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Yes. But those are the kind of jokes kids like.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I I talked with the Brokerage and with the size of my account and the scale of my trades they reduced my margin requirement from 80% to 50%
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
May I help you folks here. While I am not your average buyer, I am somewhere on the same playing field. I love Tesla and everything it is and stands for far out weighing government and religion.
Tesla is keeping the definition of the MS clearly separate from the M3; to think otherwise would be a miscalculation. I would site other car examples, but I do not care about other automakers to know the specs of their food chain line up. To keep it simple, Elon has already stated that the MS & MX would have the state of the art components, while the M3 would have the tried and true components or hand-me-downs. It is obvious to me that some things will be equal, as an example, AI/Autopilot since the M3 has the potential to be a self driving personal and public taxi vehicle.
The first division that became obvious to me was the range which tickled my fancy and I pushed the wife towards the MX (100D). We had an M3 reservation. My wife was unsure and had to see for herself the specifics between the MS and MX before relenting and jumping on board with the MX. The cost was the next hurdle for me to achieve since we have always been commoners when it came to car purchases. The luxuries were leather, and heated seats
Bottom line, we have the MX and I cannot keep her (my wife) out of it. The MX is a female and I am waiting for a name. I have to allow her (my wife) to set the music stations, and allow her to drive more frequently.
People will buy/demand luxury, technology and prestige, plus there will always be the desire to grasp it. The other people, like me will hug trees and hope to save the world and "We the people." The issue for Tesla will be keeping and maintaining that difference. Other than self-driving, ICE cars are about as good as it will ever get; while Tesla is leaning forward in the foxhole and will achieve anything they set their minds to achieve. The other issue is will people, average people, still have the money to achieve their aspirations and goals.
Reciprocity
Active Member
My wife loves ours as well, but I cant pry her minivan out of her hands for the kids. She likes taking the model X shopping. The looks I get at the Wholefoods parking lot. Dont tell my wife.
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