As usual, I'm confused. Does Tesla need Don Martin in Quality Control, or does Tesla need to make sure Don Martin never is hired as an employee?
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People seem to like these reveals. Don't worry, the excitement will drown out the bears soon enough. Then they get run over by a semi shortly after.
So if they aren't hauling the model 3's in on a tesla semi, maybe they'll do some kind of orchestrated autopilot performance.
So if they aren't hauling the model 3's in on a tesla semi, maybe they'll do some kind of orchestrated autopilot performance.
Yep this makes sense in the context of a concerted Bear attack the week of July 4th. The pros were out on vacation. You have a screwed up week with a half day monday*, followed by 3 full days, and you know everyone is off. Model 3 announcement comes out and why the price drop (it ain't GS Tamborrino, despite what the news people want you to believe)? The bears wanted a covering opportunity. I'm sure the conversation over hot dogs and barbecue (mmmm hot dogs), took the cadence of "we've started the bear attack, spread the word...."
The set up was the end of the week of June. They kept poking at the SP to see if it would drop. The candles confirmed at the end of the week of June that the pros were taking an early vacation (see my post about the failed Harami+ pattern in the tech analysis). There were actually a couple of weak rally attempts based on the patterns that were snuffed out by the bears. So they knew to take advantage of the short monday to stage an all out attack which would collapse the price. This triggered all the stop losses, set up the margin calls and called in the momo traders and algobots to their aid.
Noticed what happened this week. SP moving back up, why? TAs say TSLA is oversold, and more of the pros are back from vacation (not all, the real big boys probably have a month off for the summer...kiddos get to go to Tahiti).
So what did this accomplish? It let a lot of the shorts and bears to get out, cover and profit Before the model 3 is totally out. If they didn't do what they did and create the opportunity to cover they would have gotten creamed at the end of the month with the Model 3 party.
Ok, I really need to find that Tin-Foil hat picture for my avatar....
*they really should have made it a four day weekend or at least a full day of trading. IMHO the short day gave the shorts (more east coasters than west coasters, IMO) the advantage.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
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Honestly - I don't understand how anyone is surprised by this.
Use logic for a second - if one of these companies had engineers with the technical knowledge to make diesel engines that had exhaust numbers within regulatory limits and performed as advertised, surely that knowledge would seep to the other car companies through hiring.
Given that one of the biggest companies - VW - couldn't figure this out, the technical knowledge doesn't exist anywhere. It's fugazi.
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- From 2008 to 2016, Daimler will have sold over one million vehicles in Europe and the USA with excessively high pollutant emissions.
- The technical subtleties are similar to those of VW and Audi, the prosecutor's office Stuttgart and the US Department of Justice are determined with great force.
- The question is whether the Daimler case will be something like Volkswagen 2.0."
Honestly - I don't understand how anyone is surprised by this.
Use logic for a second - if one of these companies had engineers with the technical knowledge to make diesel engines that had exhaust numbers within regulatory limits and performed as advertised, surely that knowledge would seep to the other car companies through hiring.
Given that one of the biggest companies - VW - couldn't figure this out, the technical knowledge doesn't exist anywhere. It's fugazi.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The Bluedef system was out there ready to be sold by Bosch.
VW just refused to use it. Allegedly they wanted a "volkswagen" solution.
Later VW did use the Bluedef system but programmed the system to use less fluid than was necessary to get emissions down to the required level. Because they wanted refills of Bluedef to coincide with oil changes. The fixed VW diesels that have been ok'd for use on American roads have the Bluedef system. They just reprogrammed them to use more Bluedef fluid among other things. The earlier VW without the Bluedef system, most of the repurchased VW diesels, still don't have an approved solution to be put back on American roads.
Mercedes invented the Bluedef system. And was produced and sold by Bosch to other OEMs under license.
Ulmo
Active Member
Last year I learned the old-timer wisdom of holiday weeks being good weak points for attacks during the same types of holidays as this Independence Day; come holidays ever since, I expect it. The summer one is particularly like you said. Great write up of the current way the calendar worked; thank you!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It has been certified by US authorities in the recalled VW diesels that have the DEF system that been fixed/reprogrammed by VW to meet US requirements.
Both CARB and EPA. And the recertification was not self tested by VW. It was done by both the EPA and CARB themselves.
I don't know if the Mercedes diesels being investigated are pre Bluedef or if the Bluedef diesels being investigated do not use enough Bluedef fluid to meet NOx requirements.
Reciprocity
Active Member
As important as the model 3 is to the company, it takes in comparison to what the Y could do. The most popular car in America is now the Nissan rogue:
Nissan Rogue US car sales figures
Apparently eclipsing the Camry. Of course pickup will also be huge, but I was shocked to see just how popular these small SUVs have become. AWD is also critical in the colder regions and in many cases the small SUV us the cheapest way for people get an AWD car. Can't wait to see what they have planned for both Y and the pickup. I feel like info on the Y will come sooner then later with the target of 2019 for production. We saw the model 3 reveal about 16 months before production started. If they start to produce at the end of 2019, we should have a reveal in the next 12 months which could be precarious timing with Fred credits phasing out. Would hate to see model 3 demand take a hit from people waiting for the Y. That will be a tricky thing for Tesla to navigate. It's a good problem to have but still a problem.
Nissan Rogue US car sales figures
Apparently eclipsing the Camry. Of course pickup will also be huge, but I was shocked to see just how popular these small SUVs have become. AWD is also critical in the colder regions and in many cases the small SUV us the cheapest way for people get an AWD car. Can't wait to see what they have planned for both Y and the pickup. I feel like info on the Y will come sooner then later with the target of 2019 for production. We saw the model 3 reveal about 16 months before production started. If they start to produce at the end of 2019, we should have a reveal in the next 12 months which could be precarious timing with Fred credits phasing out. Would hate to see model 3 demand take a hit from people waiting for the Y. That will be a tricky thing for Tesla to navigate. It's a good problem to have but still a problem.
I think Model 3 will be a huge success, especially with the younger generation. Minimalist iPhone aesthetics and friendly to the environment. It's like Tesla run focus groups on this. The competition will scramble to analyze what they need change in their strategy going forward.
And if you've ever driven a Rogue, at least the ones at car rentals, then you should have no confidence in the discernment of the US consumer - one of the worst cars I've ever driven. Refuse them as rentals. Would rather drive a LeCar.
I am putting in for my Fred credit now. Is that @FredLambert or @FredTMC that I should expect to get money from?
j/k: I am the king of typos, as @FredTMC knows
One of the news items that got play recently was the y/y drop in US Model S sales.
The key takeaway IMO is that even though US Model S sales in 1H 2017 were somewhat lower compared to 2016 Tesla continued to grab massive amounts of market share as sales of competing sedans fell much more sharply.
In oarticular, sales of competing sedans were down a whopping 32.5% compared to a relatively modest drop of 7.4% for Models S. US Tesla Sales Continue Downward Slide. (post 73).
If this segment continues to shrink in the US that does suggest that Model S sales growth in the US may be harder to come by and that the lower hanging fruit will be in markets outside the US or increasing Model X. sales. Also trends change and at some point the SUV craze in the US may run its course.
The key takeaway IMO is that even though US Model S sales in 1H 2017 were somewhat lower compared to 2016 Tesla continued to grab massive amounts of market share as sales of competing sedans fell much more sharply.
In oarticular, sales of competing sedans were down a whopping 32.5% compared to a relatively modest drop of 7.4% for Models S. US Tesla Sales Continue Downward Slide. (post 73).
If this segment continues to shrink in the US that does suggest that Model S sales growth in the US may be harder to come by and that the lower hanging fruit will be in markets outside the US or increasing Model X. sales. Also trends change and at some point the SUV craze in the US may run its course.
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ValueAnalyst
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People seem to like these reveals. Don't worry, the excitement will drown out the bears soon enough. Then they get run over by a semi shortly after.
So if they aren't hauling the model 3's in on a tesla semi, maybe they'll do some kind of orchestrated autopilot performance.
I noticed the same thing. Note that the final reveal event will likely generate a higher peak than in April 2016. Also note the increasing trend for Model 3 searches even beyond the peaks.
Finally, and most importantly, note that the frequency of searches likely correlates with daily reservation rate, not the absolute level of reservations. This means: the rate at which Model 3 reservations are increasing is seems to be increasing as well.
This is in line with my expectation that Model 3 reservations will exceed 1M by the end of 3Q17.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Or it may mean Tesla was unable to manufacture enough 100 kWh packs in the first half of the year.
That's true but if sales in the segment continue to drop in the US that will create an added hurdle for the Model S and make sales in other markets that much more important. Tesla grabbed a massive amount of US market share in 1H 2017 but S sales still dropped a bit.
That doesn't mean US S sales will not increase in the future. For example Tesla can draw more buyers from the 5-series/A6/E-series market which is much larger than 7-series/A8//S-series market. Also, given the large storage capacity it could attract SUV customers who prefer the S over the X.
Also, worth emphasizing that Tesla's lead over the competition continues to grow at a very fast clip. which is encouraging.
The order backlog isn't high enough for that to be the case.
Thanks again @FredLambert for keeping us updated on the lawsuit that is basically 'Tesla vs St. of Michigan'. Lobbyist for the Michigan dealers running for cover:
Tesla vs State of Michigan: car dealers fear disclosure of their role in banning Tesla’s sales
Tesla vs State of Michigan: car dealers fear disclosure of their role in banning Tesla’s sales
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