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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Seems to be the framerate of the video and the rotation of the tires creating an odd strobing effect, unless I'm missing your meaning.

I do see some sheetmetal damage to the left side however... crash in to a snow bank during some "enthusiastic" testing??

Has nothing to do with the crash marks. You can see it in the still at 3s. I´ll wait until someone comes up with the same idea I had so I won´t bias anyone ;). Ok, I´ll say that much: What I believe I see will either make the car in the video a prototype or we´ll have a surprise at the reveal.
 
Essentially the take away is that each mile driven is fetching about .05c per mile. IF Tesla where to sell this data and I dont believe they will directly sell this data, they could fetch .05 x 15,000mi per year per car or roughly $7500. She actually says per camera but I im not going to be that optimistic. What I do agree with is that the data is valuable to Tesla and $7500 per car sold is probably a minimum as to how much its worth to them as they would need to acquire this data if they where not generating it. I guess it is possible that they could sell the data or share in a partnership where Tesla is getting something back, such is map data or machine learning algos or something beyond my rudimentary ability to guess. The value is there, but what form it takes is debatable. Does ford have this value from its cars? They will need to buy this data from someone or the resulting solution. The more uses the can find the data the more valuable it is. The first is probably high def maps and the next is probably FSD. But what else could you do with this data? Advertising is one place where you know roughly how much people make and where they are driving and when. When they stop to charge, you could popup a groupon on the screen that offers some savings while they charge for example. Very rudimentary, but the number of things you can do would be nearly infinite which makes the data more and more valuable. How many ways can they leverage the data, can they find enough solutions to pay for the entire cars marginal cost? Maybe.

5 cents per mile or 1 cent per 20 miles? .05c is saying a fraction of a penny per mile. In that case. .05c x 15,000 = $7.50 per car per year.
 
Has nothing to do with the crash marks. You can see it in the still at 3s. I´ll wait until someone comes up with the same idea I had so I won´t bias anyone ;). Ok, I´ll say that much: What I believe I see will either make the car in the video a prototype or we´ll have a surprise at the reveal.
I see a dual motor Release Candidate car with a glass roof. I see nothing out of the ordinary on the interior, just the screen we are expecting. Considering that there are production model photos out there, I'm not sure what you're expecting to find from this, except that the RC vehicles were probably dual motor.
 
Has nothing to do with the crash marks. You can see it in the still at 3s. I´ll wait until someone comes up with the same idea I had so I won´t bias anyone ;). Ok, I´ll say that much: What I believe I see will either make the car in the video a prototype or we´ll have a surprise at the reveal.
Hmm, At 3 second in to the video, it's a still shot of the car. I can't see anything unusual in the front tires at that point.
 
Mongo,
Please do me a favor as my computer died, I can't find my physics books etc.
What is the acceleration if you want a velocity of ~9,800m/s if distance was 16,000 or 32,000 ft. I'm still on the hyperloop could be a space launch rail gun, just add mountain and 16-18 degree slope

Sure thing,

48 states highest mountain ~14,000 ft.
Launch angle of 17 degrees.
Maximum theoretical tunnel length 48,000 feet (sea level to summit). 14,600 meters
Exit velocity: 9,800 m/s
Assume evacuated tunnel and uniform acceleration
Distance=1/2a*t^2
14,600= 0.5*a*t^2
Velocity=a*t
9800 = a*t
t=9,800/a
14600 = .5 * a * 9,800^2/ (a^2)
A =.5 * 9800^2 / 14600
A= 3300 m/2^2
t=~3 seconds
So, roughly 337 G's
SpaceX payload spec is ~6 G's max I think.
Which isn't to say you couldn't cut down on fuel usage by per-accelerating.
 
5 cents per mile or 1 cent per 20 miles? .05c is saying a fraction of a penny per mile. In that case. .05c x 15,000 = $7.50 per car per year.

Sorry my type-o, original post and video from the original post is where I got the number and its 5c per mile. There was also that high def mapping startup that was giving 1-5c per mile based on how popular the roads were. More for roads that are driven on less.
 
I see a dual motor Release Candidate car with a glass roof. I see nothing out of the ordinary on the interior, just the screen we are expecting. Considering that there are production model photos out there, I'm not sure what you're expecting to find from this, except that the RC vehicles were probably dual motor.

Yeah, the dual motor part is what I was thinking about. Snow flying up from the front wheel, shouldn´t happen with a rear wheel drive car. Elon´s been saying that they would focus on the RWD until the end of the year, that´s why I am a bit surprised. So if my interpretation is right this would be the first confirmation of a dual motor Model 3 if I didn´t miss anything.
 
Yeah, the dual motor part is what I was thinking about. Snow flying up from the front wheel, shouldn´t happen with a rear wheel drive car. Elon´s been saying that they would focus on the RWD until the end of the year, that´s why I am a bit surprised. So if my interpretation is right this would be the first confirmation of a dual motor Model 3 if I didn´t miss anything.
Oh. Hmm... I dunno. My S is a RWD and I have mud/dirt/snow that's thrown up near the back of my front wheel arches all the time. Tread from tires does that all the time,

The more poignant example is the trailer hitch pin I ran over that my front tires threw up and dislodged some plastic trim along the bottom of the car before puncturing my rear tire...
 
Yeah, the dual motor part is what I was thinking about. Snow flying up from the front wheel, shouldn´t happen with a rear wheel drive car. Elon´s been saying that they would focus on the RWD until the end of the year, that´s why I am a bit surprised. So if my interpretation is right this would be the first confirmation of a dual motor Model 3 if I didn´t miss anything.
The prototype units were dual motor, so I wouldn't be surprised if a number of the RC units were dual motor as well. I do not anticipate that we will get a dual motor surprise tonight. I'm pretty sure that Elon will stick to his plan of RWD only at first to keep production simple at first.
 
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The prototype units were dual motor, so I wouldn't be surprised if a number of the RC units were dual motor as well. I do not anticipate that we will get a dual motor surprise tonight. I'm pretty sure that Elon will stick to his plan of RWD only at first to keep production simple at first.

Wasn´t aware of that. But with the RCs - isn´t the idea of those to get the line running for production? Wouldn´t make sense to me to make a RC that you wouldn´t go to mass production for another half year then.
 
The one thing I would LOVE to hear today is:

"We are accelerating 2018 production to 500,000+ Model 3's in 2018."

That alone would cause SP to accelerate.
Agree. Folks remember M3 are all sold out through '18 therefore any news of features (stimulates demand) wouldn't cause a significant change to SP. M3 accelerated ramp is another story.

IMHO too nice of M3 gives the bears an argument of decreasing MS demand.
 
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Wasn´t aware of that. But with the RCs - isn´t the idea of those to get the line running for production? Wouldn´t make sense to me to make a RC that you wouldn´t go to mass production for another half year then.

Think about it from a supplier delivery risk perspective. Launching with RWD first might very well reduce a lot of that risk, thus increasing the odds of hitting Tesla's target launch date. Testing AWD RCs ahead of time would reduce overall risk further as validation - and once those parts become available, the AWD variants are that much closer to being sold.
 
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The one thing I would LOVE to hear today is:

"We are accelerating 2018 production to 500,000+ Model 3's in 2018."

That alone would cause SP to accelerate.

I think that for sure 500K will happen in 2018. I just don't know when he says it.

There might be a lull as they pause to not go over the 200K limit. That news should be delivered in the way that helps the share price coast through that lull. Today might be the right time.

I don't know.
 
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I think that for sure 500K will happen in 2018. I just don't know when he says it.

There might be a lull as they pause to not go over the 200K limit. That news should be delivered in the way that helps the share price coast through that lull. Today might be the right time.

I don't know.

I'm thinking the same thing about the pause you mentioned, and I think that'll happen first week of Jan18. Wouldn't that be the best way to get three quarters of full credit?

Not sure if they can "announce" such a strategy though...
 
The one thing I would LOVE to hear today is:

"We are accelerating 2018 production to 500,000+ Model 3's in 2018."

That alone would cause SP to accelerate.
I think I would rather hear "The ramp has been going really smoothly, there haven't been a need to correct almost anything along the way. So, we're currently at 10 cars/day, and we thinking we'll be able to build 40,000 this year."
 
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