2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[SwTslaGrl]

"Several analysts have received an invitation for the event,.."
Tesla’s Model 3 will be launched with panache--and a party--later Friday

 

[Paracelsus]

Not right. Here's how I calculate how it breaks down:

GVWR is ~6400 lbs - Heavy SUV depreciation rules apply
For this example – Assume you use the vehicle 100% for business to make the math simpler, and assume a $100K purchase price.

- You can write off $25,000 ($25k limit on heavy SUVs) of the cost thanks to the Section 179 deduction on new equipment.
- Then, you will be able to write off another $37,500 thanks to first year bonus depreciation (.50($100,000-$25,000)).
- Then, you follow the regular business depreciation rules to depreciate the remaining cost of $37,500 over 5 years. (20% x $37,500) = $7,500. You take this amount quarterly, so if you buy in third quarter, you'd take half this amount in 2017.

So 1st first-year depreciation write-off equals ($25,000 + $37,500 + $3,750 = $66,250). Now if you are in a high tax bracket like I am this might actually save you 45% in combined Federal and state taxes, so just the depreciation savings will result in a ($66,250 * .45) = ~$30K tax savings.

Add your $7,500 Federal tax credit and your total tax savings the first year is ~$37,500.

Caveats:
You are only supposed to take depreciation based on business use of the vehicle. If you only use it 80% for business your depreciation will only be 80% of the $30K.

You should confirm this with your own CPA.

Thanks @ZenMan! It never ceases to amaze me just how helpful the board members of this forum have been.

 

[22522]

Could you please recommend a book on net promotion?

Sure. This is one of those things that I have lived, contributed to a 10x improvement in valuation over a period of 3-4 years.

Will ask around.

As a complimentary activity, please take a look at standard values for "customer acquisition costs" by industry.

As an aside IDEO.org (non profit part of IDEO design firm) teaches a free? class on prototyping. If you pay attention to the part on prototyping a service, what they will do is make milestone/storyboard snapshots of the experience. The snapshot interaction is what you will prototype. One of the milestone, or storyboard, events is equipping the customer with the tools to promote the product or service.

It is a key part of experience design and experience prototyping.

But this may not be in the book I find, so I just blurted here.

Project Loveday is recruiting customers to write promotion scripts. That are as easy to deliver as sending a link!

 

[Waiting4M3]

I agree with you that Tesla does not need to lower Model 3 ASP, and I agree with @MitchJi that they will lower it sooner than they need to.

I just don't think EAP/FSD options will be thrown in for free until federal tax credit phase out and/or other manufacturers offer FSD.

It seems too early to make any predictions on any future M3 pricing changes, when we don't any of the following:

• changes in growth trajectory, remember 500K in 2020 plan?
  
• competitive landscape, including pricing comparison vs the MY
• whether Tesla will lower the price or instead add feature/performance like in MS/X
  
• future changes in incentives, including those outside of the US Federal government
• other new Tesla products that could wag their revenue and profit growth
  
• last but maybe most important, the current M3 pricing

 

[Dwdnjck]

We have a price target of $165 on Tesla: Barclays' Brian ...

Bwaahahaha!! I love the questions posed in this interview. 'We have a $165 price target on this stock, but don't ever see it going there'.

To quote Bugs Bunny, what an ultra-maroon.[


Yes! We have been wrong for more than the last year and expect to be wrong for more than next year also.

 

[Reciprocity]

It seems too early to make any predictions on any future M3 pricing changes, when we don't any of the following:

• changes in growth trajectory, remember 500K in 2020 plan?
  
• competitive landscape, including pricing comparison vs the MY
• whether Tesla will lower the price or instead add feature/performance like in MS/X
  
• future changes in incentives, including those outside of the US Federal government
• other new Tesla products that could wag their revenue and profit growth
  
• last but maybe most important, the current M3 pricing

I think its much simpler then that. As long as demand outstrips supply by a wide margin, today is probably by a million cars over the next 18 months then they will not contemplate any price changes even with Fed incentives ramping down throughout next year. Its sill to increase demand if you cannot fulfill the orders. Sell the damn things with some margin and turn a profit for once. Also dont forget that they need to fund 5 more gigafactories and Model Y, Semi and Pickup.

 

[22522]

I think its much simpler then that. As long as demand outstrips supply by a wide margin, today is probably by a million cars over the next 18 months then they will not contemplate any price changes even with Fed incentives ramping down throughout next year. Its sill to increase demand if you cannot fulfill the orders. Sell the damn things with some margin and turn a profit for once. Also dont forget that they need to fund 5 more gigafactories and Model Y, Semi and Pickup.

They need to move the "demand" to the model Y to motivate "suppliers" in a step and repeat way.

The need to move the demand out of that factory, so they can meet it without inviting competition.

I expect September to be when they slide the stack of chips over to the Y.

 

[Reciprocity]

They need to move the "demand" to the model Y to motivate "suppliers" in a step and repeat way.

The need to move the demand out of that factory, so they can meet it without inviting competition.

I expect September to be when they slide the stack of chips over to the Y.

Timing would be right based on when the 3 was revealed vs today. Elon said Y would go into production in 2019.

I dont think they need anything to motivate suppliers more. Meaning, they can already leverage Model 3s growth in production to sufficiently motivate suppliers, but yes Y would would help them to negotiate even better pricing. Y could also require a lot fewer suppliers if its truly going to be revolutionary as it relates to automated manufacturing. You would think many components would need to be designed to be automated. Tesla seems to be wanting to become more and more vertically integrated. Maybe suppliers will be moving into the Y Factory in some cases, just like Gigafactory1.

 

[vgrinshpun]

By 2019 the data collected by Tesla cars could have value equal to about a quarter of current valuation according to this analyst: Tesla Model 3: This analyst is excited about data

 

[Reciprocity]

By 2019 the data collected by Tesla cars could have value equal to about a quarter of current valuation according to this analyst: Tesla Model 3: This analyst is excited about data

Essentially the take away is that each mile driven is fetching about .05c per mile. IF Tesla where to sell this data and I dont believe they will directly sell this data, they could fetch .05 x 15,000mi per year per car or roughly $7500. She actually says per camera but I im not going to be that optimistic. What I do agree with is that the data is valuable to Tesla and $7500 per car sold is probably a minimum as to how much its worth to them as they would need to acquire this data if they where not generating it. I guess it is possible that they could sell the data or share in a partnership where Tesla is getting something back, such is map data or machine learning algos or something beyond my rudimentary ability to guess. The value is there, but what form it takes is debatable. Does ford have this value from its cars? They will need to buy this data from someone or the resulting solution. The more uses the can find the data the more valuable it is. The first is probably high def maps and the next is probably FSD. But what else could you do with this data? Advertising is one place where you know roughly how much people make and where they are driving and when. When they stop to charge, you could popup a groupon on the screen that offers some savings while they charge for example. Very rudimentary, but the number of things you can do would be nearly infinite which makes the data more and more valuable. How many ways can they leverage the data, can they find enough solutions to pay for the entire cars marginal cost? Maybe.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Timing would be right based on when the 3 was revealed vs today. Elon said Y would go into production in 2019.

I dont think they need anything to motivate suppliers more. Meaning, they can already leverage Model 3s growth in production to sufficiently motivate suppliers, but yes Y would would help them to negotiate even better pricing. Y could also require a lot fewer suppliers if its truly going to be revolutionary as it relates to automated manufacturing. You would think many components would need to be designed to be automated. Tesla seems to be wanting to become more and more vertically integrated. Maybe suppliers will be moving into the Y Factory in some cases, just like Gigafactory1.

I see another potential business here:
1) streamline the MS3XY design and consolidate the different types of parts that need to be made
2) have Grohmann look at the highest volume parts and see if those can be integrated in house more efficiently

 

[Reciprocity]

I see another potential business here:
1) streamline the MS3XY design and consolidate the different types of parts that need to be made
2) have Grohmann look at the highest volume parts and see if those can be integrated in house more efficiently

I think the parts will need to be designed to accommodate high automation, because of this I dont think they can streamline much as it relates to Model Y. They certainly could for S/X and 3, especially if say they get rid of the binnacle in the S/X and go with a HUD which could be offered in the 3 and they switch the dash vents to be more like the 3 for S/X.

The machine that builds the machine needs parts that can be manipulated and installed by machines and many parts in the final production stages are probably designed to have people install them. This is where I could see some suppliers coming in house as there is no reason to make them externally as no other car company will use them or some version of them. This also stream lines logistics where parts are made on site from raw materials. I dont know which parts make the most sense, but im sure things like steering wheels could still be sourced, but seats and dashboards for example could be built internally.

 

[winfield100]

You're like talking to a wall only way less intellectually stimulating because the wall a) sticks to what it knows, b) doesn't change its position, and c) serves a purpose.

I try to read most posts, but some are distinctly weird unless I go to bottom of page, hit "show ignored content" scroll back up, Think oh , him again, still here, still successful, but it's general discussion, but seriously, please.....

 

[AlMc]

Low volume day, Max Pain of $335 when I just checked.

 

[22522]

Timing would be right based on when the 3 was revealed vs today. Elon said Y would go into production in 2019.

I dont think they need anything to motivate suppliers more. Meaning, they can already leverage Model 3s growth in production to sufficiently motivate suppliers, but yes Y would would help them to negotiate even better pricing. Y could also require a lot fewer suppliers if its truly going to be revolutionary as it relates to automated manufacturing. You would think many components would need to be designed to be automated. Tesla seems to be wanting to become more and more vertically integrated. Maybe suppliers will be moving into the Y Factory in some cases, just like Gigafactory1.

I don't know if Tesla is building in Michigan to avoid civil division or break the will of the existing industry by hiring away talent.

But if they are not building there, a stack of chips on the model Y helps legislators make a case. If you want to sell deep into an organization you need to supply a credible script that someone besides you can deliver.

A stack of chips on the Model Y (with it priced at the Model 3 price after rebate) will do that.

You have to get people (who don't have a lot of money) to move their deposit (basically anyone who can't close the deal on the 3 for whatever reason).

Then you need to point to that stack of chips to get legislative support.

 

[hobbes]

From reddit - look at the front wheels at 3s into the video... Something strange happening methinks. Or am I mistaken?

 

[MitchJi]

Twitter

Electrek.Co @ElectrekCo

We’ve got an extra ticket for tonight’s Model 3 event for an Electrek reader in the area. Tweet at us why we should take you.
10:52 AM · Jul 28, 2017

Electrek (Fred?) has an extra ticket that they are offering via twitter.

 

[DurandalAI]

I try to read most posts, but some are distinctly weird unless I go to bottom of page, hit "show ignored content" scroll back up, Think oh , him again, still here, still successful, but it's general discussion, but seriously, please.....

Might I suggest those that reply to the beartrolls that most of us have on our iList, helpfully include in their reply:
"nnd, blah blah"
or:
"yourusername, blah blah"
If you do that for those two, I'm sure it will cover 95% of the people that people around here have on their iList.

 

[winfield100]

I think I see what you are suggesting. Stacking in the vertical space during the journey down/ up? If the sled itself could be the elevator floor, they could queue up on the surface and then allow multiple vehicles to descend simultaneously. The sled reload would then cut into the efficiency.

Mongo,
Please do me a favor as my computer died, I can't find my physics books etc.
What is the acceleration if you want a velocity of ~9,800m/s if distance was 16,000 or 32,000 ft. I'm still on the hyperloop could be a space launch rail gun, just add mountain and 16-18 degree slope

 

[scaesare]

From reddit - look at the front wheels at 3s into the video... Something strange happening methinks. Or am I mistaken?

Seems to be the framerate of the video and the rotation of the tires creating an odd strobing effect, unless I'm missing your meaning.

I do see some sheetmetal damage to the left side however... crash in to a snow bank during some "enthusiastic" testing??